Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Retraction: Car Theft in Juarez not Better, Much Worse Than in New Mexico, Comparable to Washington DC

In a story posted earlier this month I tried to estimate car theft rates in Cd. Juarez with car theft rates in the U.S., concluding that the rates in Juarez were lower than those in New Mexico. I have now pulled the plug on the story, since it was based on incorrect statistics.

I goofed, apparently misreading a report by Herica Martinez Prado, confusing a one month talley by her with a six month talley, and probably confusing her carjacking rate (theft with violence or threats of violence). In any event, her story has not been archived, so I have lost it. I noticed this error a couple of days ago when I posted a story on August 14 about carjackings, and ended with overall car thefts of 1604 in June and 1711 in July.

Revised Estimate: If we take 1600 car thefts per month as a reasonable average, we arrive at 19,200 per year. If we estimate Cd. Juarez' population as 1.5 million (it is probably within 100,000 of this figure), we would get an estimated car-theft rate of 1280. (previously I had estimated 215)

According to FBI Uniform Crime Reports the New Mexico rate in 2007 was 453.8, California was 600.2, and Nevada was 870.5, making it the highest state rate in the nation. Washington D.C. was 1291.9. Albuquerque ranked No. 8 in the nation among cities, with a rate of 730.81 and Las Cruces ranked 161 with a rate of 231.64.

1 comment:

pontius platners said...

I hope can readers can see the underlying theme here. Poverty, thats what makes people want to steal cars, doesn't matter if its DC or Juarez City, poor is poor.