Our neighboring state of Chihuahua is also having gubernatorial elections this year, in July, for the six-year term. According to a Diario poll taken last week César Duarte Jáquez, of the PRI party, is ahead of his PAN opponent by a margin of 40-31. The PRD candidate, Luis Adolfo Orozco, received about 2% support from those interviewed.
The PRI entered into an alliance earlier in the year with three left-of-center marginal parties, the Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), the Worker's Party (PT) and the National alliance Party (Panal). The Panal controls the major teacher's union in Mexico, the SNTE, and the PT, in Juarez, controls the taxi driver's association and other labor unions. In comparison to the U.S., the PAN is closer in ideology to the Republican Party of the U.S., while the PRI is closer to the Democratic Party--both are centrist, although the PRI has stronger roots in labor.
Public Security: As one might imagine, public security is something that is fairly high on the list of priorities for citizens in choosing a candidate. One reason Duarte is ahead of Borruel is that voters believe he would be better on public security, by a margin of 34-27. If I have a chance later this month I will flesh this out in more detail, because this relationship is complicated. But Duarte also leads Borruel in ability to manage the economy (remember, there is a recession in Mexico which has a Panista as president) by a margin of 39-31. And he is viewed as more honest--35-28.
The poll was taken by Confirme, for Diario (click here for story) and consisted of interviews of 1000 persons throughout the state, so it should be fairly reliable.
If you would like me to write more about the elections in Chihuahua and Juarez, let me know.