Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Martinez Way Ahead of Weh in Poll: Does This O-Pun the Way to a Susana Victory? Does the 'uey Still Have a Chance? Or is it No Weh, Jose?

Today Joe Monahan, the popular blogger from Albuquerque, published the results of a poll (click here) he apparently paid Republican Bruce Donisthorpe to conduct. It shows Susana Martinez opening up an eleven point lead over Allen Weh, 41-30.

From what I could tell this was a reliable poll. The 771 calls were geographically distributed by county in proportion to the population and were representative of the Hispanic-Anglo ratio among likely Republican voters. Even discounting a bit for the fact the calls were robo-calls (since lots of people hang up on these, you can't be sure if this skews the results one way or another), it should be well within a margin of error of 4, which would suggest that, at worst, Susana is 3 points ahead, at best, maybe 18-19 points ahead.

Other information from the poll suggests the double-digit lead is legit. She is leading Weh among Anglos by eight points, and among Hispanics by a whopping 62-20. In Dona Ana County Martinez is leading Weh by 61-16. She is leading Weh statewide among all age groups and in all three congressional districts.

One poll hardly tells the whole story. There are still five days left before Tuesday. Weh has heavily outspent Martinez, and the more popular candidate can still lose if their troops don't get out to vote. But, barring any surprising turns in the campaign, it's beginning to look like Martinez will win the Republican nomination for governor.

Weh has had a nasty two weeks. First, he over-reacted to Martinez's TV ad accusing him of being soft on amnesty for immigrants, accusing Martinez of not paying taxes. Then she interrupted him during a TV interview, showing her tax returns and asking for his (see above). Taken by surprise, Weh said only that he was in the private sector and would produce his tax returns at the appropriate time. Then the Republican Party Chair accused Weh of crossing over the line with this "patently dishonest" allegation. It looked like a three-round boxing match that ended with Weh on the canvas.

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