Friday, August 31, 2018

Juárez:  170 Murders With One Day Left in August

The last murder last night in Juárez took the life of a woman who died on a sidewalk in Col. Villa Colonial from five gunshot wounds to the head.  La Polaka counts 170 homicides so far in August with one more day to go

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

The Generic Congressional Poll Widens:  
FairVote House Model Now Predicts the House Will Flip

Fivethirtyeight's generic congressional poll (click here) has widened, now showing a 9.15 point lead for Democrats.  If applied to the FairVote.org House model (click here), (which relies on measures of how safe a House seat is, rather than on polling) and if the gap remains the same until elections are over, the House is likely to flip by a margin of five votes (220-215). Until today the margins showed Republicans retaining control of the House.

Fivethirtyeight's House "deluxe" model (click here) this morning, (based on polling and the views of local experts) shows Democrats with a 70% chance of flipping the House.  This model has been consistently in that neighborhood since it was put up a couple of weeks ago.

Note:  these numbers change daily.  So if you click on the model you might get different numbers.

Why Has the Generic Congressional Ballot Widened Recently?

Part 1:  The generic congressional ballot pretty much mirrors the presidential approval ratings, at least in the past few months.  When Trump does something to alienate a significant part of his famous "base" (such as pouting instead of praising a fallen war hero like John McCain), his approval rating goes down.  On the other hand, when he insults Mexico or Nancy Pelosi, or makes another racist comment, it "fires up the base" and his approval ratings go up.  As these swings occur, they are mirrored, after a brief time lag, in the generic congressional ballot.  The childish snub of McCain, which bothered even evangelical Trump sycophants who equate patriotism with flag-waving, appears to have affected the generic congressional ballot.

If part 1 were the only part of the story I would predict Trump would simply remind his base (we've seen this movie before) through a new wave of insults against Mexicans and blacks, breathlessly covered 24/7 by TV media (the owners of whom have been lavished with huge tax cuts and, I suspect greater barriers to market competition) that he is, indeed, racist, sexist, and vulgar--which is precisely what his base loves about him--while at the same time promising more corporate deregulation and even greater permissiveness to monopolize more markets with the help of an even more fanatical Supreme Court.  If that was all there was, I would predict the strategy would work and House would remain an instrument of Trump's increasingly tyrannical rule, at least for the next two years.



Part 2:  But there is more than the McCain snub.  In the past few weeks evidence is piling up the president is crooked.  Payoffs to porn stars and others; mischief between Trump campaign higherups and Russian oligarchs while our elections are being rigged in Trump's favor; using the presidency with a wink and a nod to make money for Trump properties, in open violation of the Emoluments clause of the Constitution (strict constructionism, anyone?  Isn't that what conservatives want?); the refusal to cough up tax returns.  The Manafort guilty verdict and the confession of Cohen brought Trump's essential crookedness into focus.

All of this adds up to a serious question about the rock-bottom legitimacy--not the legality--of the Trump presidency and, given the behavior of Congress, our system of governance as a whole.  Many uncomfortable  questions arise here.  Given the internet lies paid for by Russian operatives, and read by hundreds of thousands of unsuspecting voters, and given the closeness of the elections in which Hillary won the popular vote by three million votes, can we assert with a straight face that our elections were legitimate; that is, fair and honest, reflecting the will of the American people?  When a president insults a true American hero like McCain, while openly talking about pardoning a criminal like Manafort; when this same president, given all we know, licked Putin's boots in front of the world, at what point can we say with fairness he has abandoned his right to rule?   When the president threatens to shut down the rule of law in his own Attorney General's office are these the legitimate (again, this is different from legal) actions of a president?   Are these questions not touching truths that run deeper than mere partisan opinion? 

The walls closing in on Trump are not just legal.  It is every day more difficult to sustain the concept that his presidency is legitimate.  And as his legitimacy as President comes into question, the specific findings of the Mueller investigation, which focuses only on legal issues, not legitimacy, become less and less crucial: We already know enough.  The president lost his right to speak on my behalf by his behavior, out in the open. And, by the way, when a handful of partisan bosses in Congress violate their constitutional duty to create effective checks and balances in power, aren't we entitled to take action, stop the mischief and demand a return to constitutional rule?  We know the television media and Congress will refuse to raise these questions.  Do we have the courage to pose them out loud as we talk to friends about this election season?

One final point:  the real reason Democratic leaders have been so slow to challenge Trump at this gut level, is that they don't want to go there, even though they dearly hope to put an end to Trumpism. The system is rigged, and Democrats, knowing all too well they are part of the swamp, want you to do away with Trumpism, without questioning legitimacy of the current system itself.  This is the unspoken secret of American politics today:  Trump became president in great part because the system is rigged and most Americans in both parties wanted to fix it.  We deserve far more than we got, and we have a chance to start fixing it ourselves this fall.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

More Executions Yesterday in Juárez
One Decapitated, One Encobijado, One Killed While Driving

Diario de Juárez reports three more executions yesterday.  La Polaka, without providing details, asserts that five persons were murdered.  One man was found encobijado (wrapped in a blanket) on Km 20 in the Southwest portion of the city.  Another was found decapitated.

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Two Paths for Xochitl:
Wanna Help Flip the House?  Read On

Xochi is predicted in the Fairvote.org model to lose her race by 2.8%, if the generic ballot holds at a 6.6% margin in favor of Democrats, pretty much where we are today (see story below)
Accepting this model (and I believe it is a good a prediction as you can get this far out) Xochi has two paths to victory:

Path One:  Only if the generic ballot goes up to 55.6% in favor of Democrats--an eleven point lead--nationwide, is Xochi likely to win the race, and then just barely, given the voting record of CD2.   Eleven points is a stretch because the generic ballot has been hovering only between 3 and 8 points in the Dems favor for the past couple of months.  The last time the generic ballot favored Dems by 11 points was on January 14.  Fox News and Rudy Giuliani have  told Republican viewers not to waver, regardless of the ugliness of ugly facts, and at least for the moment Republicans nationwide appear to be obedient.  Bottom Line:  the implications for strategy in these numbers is that if Xochi runs a "nationalized," campaign, asking voters to send her to Congress as a counterpoint to Trump, she is likely, unless public opinion shifts, to lose by about 3 points, close, but no cigar.  Path One is a long shot.

Creating Path Two:

This is an open race, against a relatively unknown Republican opponent, who does not appear to have a lot of charismatic appeal.  The last time these three factors coincided in CD2 was in 2008, when Harry Teague, a Democrat, won the seat for one term.  That was, of course, a Presidential year, when turnout margins were favorable for Democrats, and when a popular incumbent president got reelected. Without those tailwinds, Harry would not have won.

This year Dems will not have a presidential tailwind, and normally in an off-year turnout rates favor Republicans.  But this is not a normal year.  Republican congressional candidates are everywhere fearful of a tail drag because of the overall unpopularity of the President.  The latest numbers show Trump with a 41.5% approval rating (it was 39% in January), nationwide, (I suspect it is higher in CD2), and there is widespread speculation Dem turnout, given the intensity of feelings against Trump, will be higher than normal.  These factors are going to help Xochi, but (see above) they aren't enough by themselves to produce a win.

So if nationalizing her campaign is not a wise strategy, what might be a better one? 

Path 2:  

Let's start by reviewing how Harry Teague won in 2008

As someone who worked on the margins of his campaign I can attest that Harry had not one charismatic bone in his body.  Nor did Harry have a coherent message.  He won that seat because hundreds  of Democrats called their friends and neighbors and got out the vote, giving him a special plug. The presidential coattails was critical, but there was also a of of grassroots work behind the scenes.  In this county, at least, Harry's campaign manager, Frank Constanza, consulted with local folks with strong community ties.  Activists like Arturo Uribe put together a ground game specifically for him in the DAC South Valley.  Doña Ana County provided one third of the total number of votes Teague got that year, and 57% of the surplus votes he won.  For a candidate with a Texas accent and a public persona so hidden it was never seen, coming into a county that at that time was 67% Hispanic (today it is 70%), this was no small achievement.

Each election is different.  If the numbers don't on the surface look as good for Xochi as they did for Teague, it is also true that  Xochi is a far better candidate than Harry, more dynamic, articulate, so she can build on that.  Based on what I observed ten years ago I would suggest the following.

1.  Localize the race in the big counties.  This means collecting serious information about what might motivate likely voters, and acting on that information.  For various reasons, (some of them specific to the dynamics of this year's election) it is especially important to motivate Hispanic voters in CD2.  But after the colossal disappointment in the name Martinez, who doesn't speak Spanish, Hispanic voters will need more than the name Torres and a phone call on election day to motivate them.  It might help for Xochi personally to consult, openly or in private, with local leaders to plumb their thoughts.

2. Motivate voters by being a better candidate.  This is Xochi's strong suit, but she needs to demonstrate she deserves the job more than Yvette by showing up everywhere and proving it over and over to skeptical audiences who will be turned off with perfunctory talking points that could be given in any of 435 congressional districts.

3. Build an early, Xochi-specific ground game in the big counties.  This is particularly important in heavily Hispanic precincts.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Will the House Flip?  Don't Bet On It!
August Polls Show Democratic Lead Shrinking
Fivethirtyeight Shows Dem Probabilities Above Water But Shrinking
Fairvote.org's Model Much Less Optimistic About a Flip

Nate Silber's (Fivethirtyeight) congressional electoral model--see below, August 17) for this year calculates the Democrats' probabilities of winning back the House are still strong, but shrinking based on the latest polls.  His prediction today, based on extensive polling data for each congressional district, lowers the chances of Dems taking the House from over 75% a few days ago to only 72,4% today.  Republican chances are correspondingly higher, moving from below 25% to 27.6%.  This is still a relatively strong margin, but if the current trend continues at this pace the projected lead could vanish to about 50-50 by October 1. Moreover, Silber's Deluxe Model, which includes, apparently, anecdotal information to supplement the numbers, has the Dem chances down to 68.2%, reinforcing the notion of shifting momentum.

FairVote.org's model on the other hand continues to predict Republicans will retain the House.  This model relies heavily on calculations about the impact of gerrymandering in each district, and on the normal bump in favor of incumbents, rather than on polling data on individual races.  The model, by the way, has been accurate at a 99.9% level for predicting outcomes in the past three election cycles, so you should treat it with respect.  Driven by the generic congressional ballot, Fairvote's model shows Democrats losing the House unless the generic ballot is above 54.5%; that is, a 9.8% point lead.  So how does this number look?

The Rasmussen poll is the most dire:  it shows the generic vote (if the election were held today, would you prefer Democrats or Repubicans to control the House?) to be 44% to 44% between the two parties with 12% undecided.  If this is correct, and it holds until election, the Fairvote model predicts Republicans will retain the house with a 242-193 seat margin.

Fivethirtyeight today shows the Democrats with an average 7.9% advantage in the generic ballot in the average of polls taken in August.  At this rate the Fairvote model would give Republicans a 5 vote edge, with 220 votes to 215.

Real Clear Politics today shows the average generic polling data between July 30 and August 21 to be only 6.6% in favor of the Democrats.  If this holds, the Fairvote model would predict Republicans to win the house with a margin of 222-213.

Thus, if you believe the Fairvote model, the House is not on target to flip, given the latest polls.  On the other hand Silber continues to show the House flipping, although the trend at the moment is swinging back to the Republican side.

The polling for the above was taken before the Manafort conviction and the Cohen confession.  Once this sinks in the Dems might see a bump.  But in the past Republicans and the Fox propaganda machine have not been inclined to show the slightest displeasure for any of the outrages--separating parents from children, gutting health care, the proven lies, the refusal of Republicans in Congress to do their jobs as a separate branch of government, the kleptocrats and fanatics in the cabinet, the massive tax cuts for the rich, the payoffs to and lies about the girlfriends, the dismantling of basic regulations, and the cynical disdain for the rule of law--so the felonious misuse of campaign funds and the elaborate deceptions to evade taxes, and the strench of sleaze surrounding Trump and his people might not make a difference.  We will see.
Another August Body in Juárez, This one Floating in a Canal

Diario reports  a man going to work this morning spotted the body of a man floating, lodged at the headgates of the irrigation ditch in Valle de Juárez near San Agustin.  The man's feet were tied with a cable and he was wearing only red underwear and a white shirt

The Guns of August in Juárez Are Still Blazing:  133 and Counting

Accused Killer (Pradera de los Oasis Massacre) Killed in Jail

Diario reports Yesterday morning Daniel Quinn Calderón, 36, one of six men accused of participating in the August 2 massacre of 13 youths in the Pradera de los Oasis neighborhood, was killed by gang members belonging to Artistas Asesinos, in an ambush at Cereso prison, just blocks away from the ill-fated house where the massacre occurred.  Armed with pipes and other homemade weapons, in a matter of seconds, men with hoods over their faces killed Quinn as he was submitting to a body check before being admitted to an arraignment hearing on the prison grounds.  The attack took place at 7:40 in the morning; the arraignment was to be held at 9:00 a.m.

Others wounded in the attack were the alleged mastermind of the Praderas de los Oasis massacre (see below), René Hernández, whose son, a member of the Artistas Asesinos gang, had been killed in May, and Martín Favila González, 45, (“El Chori”), and Luis Fernando Limas Escápita, “El Ferny,” 23, also accused of participating in the massacre.

Another Teenage Party Interrupted by Sudden Death?

La Polaka reports at least three 17-years and one adult were killed last night when sicarios broke into a party in a house in Col. Horizontes del Sur, and started shooting everyone there. Diario reports the attack killed three persons and was against people outside the dwelling and does not mention a party nor the age of the victims.

About half way between the airport and the border, in South Central Juárez this modest neighborhood has been the site of many assassinations in recent years.

Elderly Man Killed While Changing a Tire on a Bus 

Diario reports a man, approximately 74 years of age, was killed by gunfire near the river in the northern party of Juárez, at about 5:30 in the afternoon yesterday as he was changing a tire on a bus.

Diario Reports Deaths of Two Men Implicated in Killings of Police

A man wanted in connection with the execution of two police officers last October was executed yesterday morning at the Corner of Triumfo de la Republica and Adolfo de la Huerta, in front of a popular shopping center near the Pronaf.  Joel René Roque Flores (‘El Renato’) is said to have worked for Arturo Padilla, ("El Genio"), a leader of the Barrio Azteca gang.  Another man, Martin Mares Peña, ("El Temberland"), 30, also said to have worked for "El Genio." was killed by gunfire last Saturday in Col. Gustavo Diaz Ordaz.  He was also believed to have participated in the planning and execution of the murder of two police officers last October.  A third man implicated in the murder of the police officers, and a key witness for the prosecution, died in a hospital last Sunday after receiving gunshot wounds.  He had been a member of the Azteca (Old School) gang.


Dead Man Dressed as a Woman, Apparently Strangled, Found in Front of His House

Diario reports a man, apparently strangled, his feet tied and his head covered by brown tape, was found dead in front of his house in Col 16 de Septiembre.  The report suggests the killers had "dressed him in a blue dress and pink slippers."  Several other dead male bodies have shown up dead, in recent week, dressed as women.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Kidnapping Charges by the State Against Six Persons Sketch Last Hours 
In the Lives of Meibi Oyuki, 18,  and Cesar Estupiñan, 25
Praderas de los Oasis Massacre of 13 Youths

Diario de Juárez today reports details included in the charges leveled by the State of Chihuahua against six persons alleged to have been involved in the Praderas de los Oasis massacre on August 2.

Among the allegations:  at approximately 7 p.m. on August 2 the six persons named in the indictment, accompanied by an unidentified person, arrived at the residence (a picadero) where the murders were to take place.  Meibi was taken from that residence to a another residence, In Southeast Juarez, where she was held until August 3, when César Amador Estupiñán arrived.  Both were then taken to another residence, where they were "physically tortured" (atormentados) until they died.  On August 4 Estupiñan's mother was taken by one of his friends to his car.  The driver's door was open and the trunk contained the two bodies.

Friday, August 17, 2018

Will the House Flip This Year?  Two Models:  One Flips the House, the Other Does Not


Two sophisticated models have been created to predict what is likely to happen in each of the 435 congressional districts this year.  One is byFairVote.org and the other is from FiveThirtyEight.   

One model predicts the House will very probably flip; the other predicts it will stay Republican unless public opinion shifts further to the Democrats between now and the elections .  The methodologies used in the models are different.

The FiveThirtyEight model, created by Nate Silber, emphasizes the fluidity of the electorate, with extensive polling data in each district.

FairVote.org's model emphasizes the stubborn resistance of the electoral system to changing public opinion because gerrymandering and the power of incumbency lock in 79% of the House seats even though at a national level voters clearly favor the Democratic Party to lead the House. It does not rely on current polling data in each district.

Nate Silber, of FiveThirtyEight, as of this morning, estimates there is a 74.6% chance--this was about what his prediction favoring Hillary was two years ago--the House will flip to the D side this year.  The model will be updated daily, with a podcast discussing the dynamics of critical races. 

FairVote, using the generic congressional party preference poll (GCPPP) as the driver of change, 
suggests the Democrats will take over only if the GCPPP ticks up to 54.8% in favor of the Democratic Party.  Right now it is sitting at about 53.9%, which, according to the model, will give Republicans a five-vote majority.  The FairVote model allows the viewer to fiddle with the numbers for each of the 435 seats, or to change the value of the generic preference poll.

Monday, August 13, 2018

Ten Murders So Far This Monday in Juárez

The bloodbath continues La Polaka (click here) reports five persons were murdered shortly after midnight last night in Col. Hermengildo Galeana (in Northwest Juarez), at what was described as a clandestine nocturnal gathering behind a fenced off area.within a residential property.  La Polaka (click here) later reported the men killed had been drinking.  Another man shot there died in the hospital.  Diario (click here) later reported a seventh man, shot in the head, died as well.

Diario (click here) reports a man was taken by two armed men from his home in Bellavista and executed on the sidewalk outside.  The report suggests the man was thought to be a neighborhood drug dealer.  Three other men in the house at the time were not bothered.

In another Diario report (click here) two men were killed while driving Chevy Malibu in Col. Rancho Anapra, just across the line from Sunland Park, NM, early this morning. One man was found dead behind the steering while while the other died just outside the vehicle.  An earlier report from La Polaka (click here)  said the men were found in the trunk of the car.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Charlie Crowder, R.I.P.



Charlie Crowder was a genius.  He had algorithms in his head for strategy that were simply different from those of anyone else.  No matter what the subject, when trying to think a move or two ahead, Charlie's solution was inevitably better than mine, more comprehensive, bolder.  But his genius also included finding creative ways to implement his plan, an instinct for where the obstacles would be, and a plan for solving these, and an arsenal of contacts that might help him overcome.  So his genius was multi-dimensional.  He was also enormously fun to be with, his jolly disposition contagious as he rattled out one funny story after another, a twinkle in his eyes, often making fun of himself but never forgetting to include you in the conversation.

Charlie had a knack for making friends in very high and often not-so-high places.  He knew every Mexican President from Lopez Mateos in the early 1960s on and he could prove to skeptics that he could get help when needed.  Like another accomplished genius, Cesar Chavez, Charlie had an uncanny ability to make you feel it was a privilege, not a chore, to do a favor for him.  As with Cesar Chavez, it was in great part the feeling of participating in a tiny way in the creation of a vision--something larger than yourself and worth doing—that motivated you to throw your own grain of sand into the mix.

Charlies' greatest accomplishment was his vision for the US-Mexico border, a vision that in part has been realized in the project at Santa Teresa.  Way back in the 1960s he envisioned binational border communities working together symbiotically, both sides benefiting and growing closer together.  He had the stuff to put this vision to work, trading federal land in Arizona for 29,000 acres of desert on the US-Mexico border near Sunland Park.  He had a water claim, of 110,000 acre-feet in the Mesilla Bolson, backed, at the time, by the New Mexico state engineer, the legendary Steve Reynolds.  Reynolds understood that Charlie's claim to this water, under the Mendenhall doctrine, would also, ingeniously, protect New Mexico against Texas' desire to pump water in New Mexico for El Paso.  So he backed it.

Ultimately, Charlie’s vision was so stunning, historic in scope, and just downright attractive, that ambitious rivals couldn’t resist wanting to saw off pieces of his vision for themselves, for money or, perhaps just as important, to step into the middle of the photograph, leaving Charlie to one side.  Politicians, some of them still revered in New Mexico, listened to some of these rivals, none of whom, despite promises, delivered much to further the vision.  The delays these moves caused ended up fragmenting the project and there it stands today, a border crossing with limited appeal, a source of political conflict, unfinished, precarious, worthy of pursuing but unworthy of its original intent.

At his best the algorithms in Charlie’s head, when acted on, changed reality dramatically, leaving observers trying to sort out what had happened.  At one critical moment, when actors on the other side were dragging their heels in completing a road to Santa Teresa, Charlie simply rented equipment, crossed the border, and built the road himself, leaving observers on both sides astonished at this boldness, wondering how this unauthorized US incursion into Mexico territory, 50 miles from where Pancho Villa crossed over, had gone apparently unnoticed at the highest levels of the Mexican government.  But it got the job done.

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

More Arrests:  Details Emerge in the Massacre of Youths at Praderas de los Oasis
Appears to be a Shakespearean, Tragic Tale:  About a Pair of Star-Crossed Lovers, A Possible Betrayal, And the Revenge of a Father

Sources:  Borderland Beat (click here), Diario de Juárez (click here, and El Tiempo (click here)
Photographs from Borderland  Beat website 

Updated August 14

On May 28 the body of Jonathan Rene Hernandez Perez, alias "El Titis," was found, dismembered, in a garbage bag in the tony neighborhood of Manuel Gomez Morin.  His father, 45-year old Rene Hernandez C, alias "El Rene,"  was, according to one version of the story, a member of  the Asesinos Artistas gang associated with the Sinaloa Cartel. Jonathan himself was a relatively small operator, selling heroin and meth on the local market, apparently under the cone of the Asesinos Artistas gang.  El René had, according to Diario (click here), been released from prison in Chihuahua in December of last year after serving a 13-year sentence for homicide.
  
In the days following the murder of his son, "El Rene" learned, or believed, that Cesar Armando Estupiñan, leader of the Artistas Asesinos, (and, according to one version, a former business partner--they owned a string of barbershops--with El Rene) had ordered the assassination.  The Artistas Asesinos, as well as the Mexicles, are associated with the Sinaloa cartel.  The Mexicles and the Nuevos Aztecas have been deadly enemies in the larger rivalry between the Juarez cartel and the Sinaloa cartel, both competing for control of local and transnational drug trafficking in Juarez.

According to one version, when El Rene learned about the circumstances of his son's death, he went to the rival Nuevo Azteca gang and enlisted with them.

A few days ago "El Rene," learned that there would be a gathering of people at the picadero in the Praderas de los Oasis neighborhood.  Some of those to be attending the party, he believed, had been involved in his son's murder.  They were members of the Mexicles and Artistas Asesinos, his former associates.
Meibi Oyuku and Cesar Estupiñan, Encajuelados
  
According to his confession, when he learned of this "El Rene" began to plan revenge. 

There were two persons "El Rene" was particularly interested in getting to the party:  The first was Cesar Amador Estupiñan, who, he believed, had ordered the assassination of his son.  The second was a young woman by the  name of Meibi Oyuki.  Meibi had been the girlfriend of his son.  But El Rene had learned that she had cheated on his son, and was now having an affair with none other than Cesar Armando Estupinan, his son's killer and, according to one version, his former business associate.

El Rene and his Son Jonathan and Meibi and Jonathan, in Happier Days

But El Rene's hatred of Meibi may have run deeper than this.  According to this version El Rene learned that she had betrayed his son, informing Estupiñan that Jonathan had sold drugs he had stolen from members of the Artistas Asesinos.  This information led to Johathan's murder.

There is, however, a different version of the story.  In this account (click here), Jonathan accidentally found some meth among some furniture he was moving from the home of a relative of Meibi, belonging to the Artistas Asesinos.  He sold it to a man (nicknamed "el Nan") who later informed a high-ranking member of the Artistas Asesinos, who then ordered Johathan's execution, presumably for stealing drugs from fellow gang members.  In this account Meibi apparently did not betray Jonathan.  It is possible, however that El René thought she had betrayed his son or was motivated to kill her simply for having forsaken Jonathan for Estupiñan.

El Rene enlisted the help of Rosa Evelyn V.A. to infiltrate the organization of the party at the picadero.  Rosa knew Meibi Oyuki, called her, and got her to go to the party.  When Meibi arrived at the party, according to one account, Rosy called El Rene to let him know she was there.  El Rene then went to the picadero with other members of his hit squad.  According to the account in Borderland Beat (click here), El Rene used Meibi "as bait," calling Estupinan.  It is not clear whether he actually went to the picadero, or whether she agreed to meet him shortly.  When El Rene arrived at the picadero Rosa apparently let him in with his hit squad.  They tied up all of those in attendance, including Meibi, tortured them, and then strangled each one.

Several persons were arrested yesterday in connection with the massacre, including Rosa Evelyn V.A.   The massacre occurred on August 2, the evening of Jonathan's birthday.

From Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet:

Two households, both alike in dignity
(In fair Verona, where we lay our scene),
From ancient grudge break to new mutiny,
Where civil blood makes civil hands unclean.
From forth the fatal loins of these two foes
A pair of star-crossed lovers take their life