Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Generic Congressional Ballot  Now Shows 11.3% Lead for Democrats
This Predicts Flipping the House and Moving CD2 into Tossup Status at Fairvote.org
Fivethirtyeight Polling Still Shows Xochitl with only 29% Chance of Winning

In recent days the generic congressional ballot has widened in favor the the Democrats.  The Fairvote.org model now predicts the House will flip to Democratic with a margin of  224D-211R.  It also moves the Xochitl race into the "tossup" category, up from "lean Republican."  The Fivethirtyeight model (click here), based more heavily on polling, still shows Xochi with only a 29% chance of winning, but it now shows Democrats have an 80% chance of winning the House.

The generic congressional ballot has favored Democrats over Republicans this year by margins as close as 3.9% (on May 22) and as much as 11.9% (on January 1).  Because of heavily gerrymandered districts favoring Republicans, the House is unlikely to flip unless the gap is at least 8-10 points wide.

While the gap has been trending recently against Republicans, this may be simply because President Trump has been having a bad two weeks.  A few tweets of anti-immigrant insults and railing against Nancy Pelosi, and the gap may well narrow again.

The models change daily, with new information, so you may find different numbers if you check.

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