A Survey USA poll of 494 likely Republican voters in New Mexico shows Susana Martinez with a 10-point lead over Allen Weh, 43-33. This tends to lend credence to the eleven-point lead indicated by a poll paid for by blogger Joe Monahan, with almost identical numbers, 41-30. Among Republicans who have already voted, Martinez led Weh in the Survey USA poll by 50-33.
The same survey showed Martinez, alone among Republican candidates, beating Democratic about-to-be-nominated candidate Diane Denish by six points, 49-43. In this portion of the poll 1405 likely voters were interviewed, so the reliability, for this moment in time, should be fairly high. Significantly, among Hispanics, Martinez showed strong support, at 40% very early in the game. Among Anglos Martinez was way ahead, with a margin of 54-38. Only 15% of Republicans are Hispanic, so this very early poll shows a strong cross-over appeal among Hispanic Democrats for Martinez, who is Hispanic and speaks fluent Spanish. Among Democrats, more than half are Hispanic.
Typically, Democrats win statewide elections with extremely high margins among Hispanics, and a strong minority of Anglos. This poll indicates that Martinez's candidacy might change this pattern, appealing to enough Hispanics, who tend to be far more conservative than Anglo Democrats, to win the race.
Click here to see the Survey USA poll.