The New Mexico Legislature at the End of the Beginning: 2022

We move into Act II of the 30-day legislative session.  The early movidas have been duly noted.  All hands, that is to say, the lobbyists, are on deck hoping for a slice of the unusually high $9 billion surplus.  The usual early posturings, like a love-hate pair of Tango dancers, between the Senate and the Fourth Floor, have been acted out, to the delight of the informed onlookers.  Commentators rush to inform us about the electoral significance of each move:  Is the tax cut for social security just an election-year feint by the governor to the public?  Is the hydrogen hub bill, which hit the average legislator by surprise, a kind of election-year tranquilizer for an angry East Side or, after years of suffering, a kiss on the cheek to the Northeast Corner?  Are the proposals to increase state employees and teacher's salaries really intended as insurance payments for a sizeable pocket of votes?

The rules for NM political discourse are pretty rigid.  You can argue for or against a proposal on the basis of whether it will really address the problem it is purported to address.  (Will the hydrogen hub actually increase carbon emissions?) Or you can argue for or against a proposal on the basis of whether it fits within the straight-jacket of current Conservative or "Progressive" ideology (Will the increase in salaries for public employees just increase the size of NM government, a no-no for "common-sense" conservatism?).  Or you can evaluate a bill according to its sponsor or who is lobbying for it. (I'm for--or against-- the hydrogen hub because it originates with Rep. Patty Lundstrom, from the Northwest Corner, Chair of the LFC).  There are many such rules, and a brief glance at the blog world, newspaper opinion pages, or the serious journalists who follow the legislative session, will reveal more.

What is not part of the system of rules governing political discourse during a legislative session is how a bill might fit into the larger scheme for moving New Mexico out of 50th.  Will raising teachers' salaries improve student scores that place New Mexico 50th in public education?  How will the education system--not just teachers--create goals and deadlines for this to happen?  What might those goals and deadlines look like?  By the way, didn't we try this twenty years ago with Richardson only to see the scores continue to drift at the bottom of the barrel?  Does NM have a realistic chance of winning a piece of the $8 billion Congress has designated to create four "hydrogen hubs" across the country?  How will raising state government salaries improve the wait lines at MVD?  By how much?  who will be held accountable for this?

Perhaps the most pessimistic note in our currently disfunctional political system in NM is the acceptance by virtually all of us that moving New Mexico out of 50th is not going to be part of our public discourse.  Making government work better, and how this or that particular bill might move us in that direction, is a side-show, one of 7 or 8 or more talking points, to lay on an unsuspecting legislator.  It is not the main dish.  

Is this not a concession by all of us that deep down inside that we have accepted our status at the bottom of the barrel?  A glance at national politics or changes in the balance of power away from the US at the global level is revealing:  the old international order, created by the US at the end of World War II, is crumbling, and the new order being created is not necessarily democratic or solicitous of US input.  The national consensus about the rules of the game as embodied in the clear language of the US Constitution, has come to an end.  We have no sacred rules, nor many honest rule-enforcers.

The forces at work creating global mischief and national self-destruction are not going to go away.  It is just a matter of time until they reach full-force in New Mexico's political community. If we can't agree on what we want as a political community, it seems unlikely we will negotiate the push and pull of of these forces with any kind of coherence at all.

 Espanola City Elections:  Are the Winds of Change Blowing?

While city elections are officially non-partisan affairs in NM, partisan elements can be seen in the lineup of candidates for Mayor and City Council elections to be held in the Spring.  Espanola Mayor Javier Sanchez, a Republican, is running for re-election against a challenge from Juan Ramon Vigil, a Democrat currently serving as City Councilor from District 2.  Vigil lists himself as a real estate broker, and has the distinction of being the youngest person ever elected to the city council, at the age of 22.  He is also a member of the Salazar family, one of the tradional ruling families of the past few generations.  

Sanchez has impeccable academic credentials, having graduated from Yale with a BA and then an MBA.  He is openly gay.  His election four years ago as mayor suggested voters were not happy with politics as usual in Espanola, and might be willing to entertain alternative visions for governing the region.  To some extent, this election, as well as the other city races, will be viewed as a referendum on Sanchez's success in governing an Espanola that has been heavily Democrat in voting patterns since the 1960s.

Other partisan notes:  Two city councilors, John Ricci and Justin Salazar- Torrez, switched party from Democrat to Republican, after having been elected to the city council in 2018 while they were Democrats.  One of them, Salazar-Torrez, also ran in 2020 as a Republican candidate for NM House District 40.  He was defeated in the general election by Democrat and LGBTQ candidate Roger Montoya, a professional dancer from Velarde with deep family roots in rural Northern (Hispano) New Mexico.  A technician at the Los Alamos Labs, and also funeral director,  Salazar-Torrez is running unopposed in District 4, as is incumbent Denise D. Benavides, in District.  Benavides is Affordable Housing administrator for Santa Fe County.

John Ricci, a businessman raised in Sonoma County, Calfornia, has lived in Espanola since 1993.  His wife is from the Espanola Valley.  He is opposed by Aaron J. Salazar, a Democrat, listed as Operations Supervisor for New Mexico Gas.

In the seat being vacated by Juan Ramon Vigil,  Nanette Smith Rodriguez is opposing Richard R. Martinez for District 2.  Smith Rodriguez has extensive experience as an Espanola city employee and is currently Division Director for Las Cumbres Community Services.  Richard R. Martinez is currently a superintendent at the Los Alamos labs, and has experience as a coach and teacher, and served in the NM National Guard.

Among the questions these elections will help answer, is whether Espanola is moving toward a more competitive two-party system.

 

 Two Seats Contested in Las Vegas City Elections

Two years ago Las Vegas city government was shaken when the Mayor, Tonita Gurule-Giron, was forced to resign when she was indicted by the NM Attorney General on corruption charges.  She was subsequently convicted of receiving kickbacks from her then-boyfriend, after pressuring city employees to award his city construction contracts.  She was given an 18-month sentence of probation.

Three of the four city council seats in Las Vegas are open this year.  Wards 1 and 3 will be contested; In Ward 4 the inclumbent, David Romero is running unopposed.

In Ward 1 incumbent David Ulibarri is running for re-election, and is opposed by Francisco Apodaca, Rolando Medrano, and Doris Gallegos.  Apodaca works as STEM director at Luna College; Medrano is the owner of Northeastern Land Appraisals in Las Vegas, and Gallegos is a retired city employee.

In Ward 3 the incumbent, Elaine Rodriguez, a department head at Highlands University, was appointed to the office when Joseph Baca, who had been elected to the position, resigned unexpectedly in 2020.  She is running for the spot, but will be opposed by Barbara Perea Casey, perhaps the best-known politician outside of San Miguel County, having served as Superintendent of West Las Vegas Schools and as a state legislator from House District 38 in Roswell from 1983-1995.  She also served on the city council from Ward 3 from 2016-2020, when she ran unsuccessfully for Mayor.

Four-Candidate Mayor's Race Underway in Taos

Background:  Like most places, Taos County is facing a major spike in omicron cases, with 147 cases reported by Johns Hopkins yesterday, after a record high 279 cases a week ago.  Given the reliance of many businesses in Taos on tourism, the labor shortage that has emerged here, as everywhere, during the pandemic, is affecting local businesses and staffing for local and county governments.

This year elections will be held to replace three county commissioners.  Darlene Vigil of the South and West-side District No. 3 was elected chair of the commission earlier this month, and AnnJanetter Brush, of the North and East quadrant of the county, was elected Vice Chair. 

From the candidate forum held last night, sponsored by the Taos News and the Taos County Chamber of Commerce, several major issues seem to define the current debate:  creating affordable housing, delays so far in opening a detox center now being used as an auxiliary wing for covid patients at the Holy Cross Medical Center; finding funds for the regional airport and industrial center, and dealing with the pandemic.

Incumbent Mayor Dan Barrone, elected to the office eight years ago, is facing three opponents in the forthcoming mayoral race:  Pascualito Maestas, Genevieve Oswald, and Dustin Sweet.  City Council member Pascualito Maestas has challenged Barrone's leadership, criticizing him for not doing more to obtain funding for the regional airport and industrial park, as well as other issues such as the failure to open a detox center.  Maestas also cited a shortage of plumbers, electricians, and welders, suggesting the city might try to invest in technical education to fill in some of these needs.  Genevieve Oswald focused on raising wages for city workers as a means of maintaining adequate staffing levels, and in taking steps to achieve carbon neutrality.  Sweet promised swift action on the housing shortage, the detox center, and improving recycling services.

All of the candidates opposing incumbent Mayor Dan Barrone indicated they felt the city needs to make a stronger effort to work in tandem with county government to tackle outstanding issues in a more coordinated, cohesive, way.

 Politics in Our Neighboring State of Chihuahua

Like New Mexico, A History of Corruption 

Bottom Line:  Corruption scandals in Chihuahua have plagued recent governorships after the incumbent governor leaves office, and accusations of complicity by state officials in favoring one or more drug-trafficking organizations, are common in a state where enormous quantities of illicit drugs are transported to the US.  It is undeniable that some recent governors have greatly enriched themselves during their six-year tenure in power.  Former Governor Cesar Duarte is at the moment in the spotlight.  A US federal judge recently validated the Mexican government's request to extradite Duarte from his curent jail cell back to Mexico to face charges of peculation worth about $100 million during his six-year tenure (2010-2016) in office.  This is not new.  Governors in Mexico during the national hegemony of the PRI (which lasted until 2000) were evaluated by the public on whether they had delivered concrete benefits to the population rather than on how much money they might have been stolen; stealing was taken for granted.  In New Mexico, by contrast, while corruption with public funds is widespread and almost certainly growing, it tends to be widely distributed among public and private entities alike, at many institutional distribution points, such as the current scandal at Spaceport New Mexico or in the housing authority scandal of a few years ago or the guardianship scandals of the past few years, or irregularities in regulation control or in the dispensation of state contracts.

The PAN party, right-of-center, has been in power in Chihuahua state since 2016.  In July 2021 Maria Eugenia Campos Galvan of the PAN (better known as Maru Campos) was elected Governor for a six-year non-reelectable term, succeeding Governor Javier Corral, who left office in September of 2021.  The President of the unicameral legislature is also a woman, Georgina Bujanda Rios, also of the PAN.  Prior to 2016, the PRI, a centrist party, had been in power in Chihuahua for the previous 18 years.  The legislature consists of 33 members, 22 of which are elected, as in New Mexico, from single-member districts, and 11 of which are elected in proportion to the statewide party vote.

In Mexico Governors are far more powerful than they tend to be in the U.S., partly because they tend to control the legislature--the proportional representation rules make this highly likely--and partly because they receive most of their budgets from the federal government rather than from state-generated revenues, thus avoiding the need for extensive negotiation among powerful interests and public seeking to minimize taxes or use taxation for social policy. In Northern Mexico, too, since the time of Pancho Villa and the Mexican Revolution more than a century ago, governors are expected to act decisively, and to control their legislatures.  Legislators are allowed to serve only one three-year term, a provision that weakens the ability of legislative leaders to develop institutional power over policy.  There is no such thing as a an independent legislative finance committee, operating year-round with a competent staff, evaluating many areas of policy performance, and negotiating directly with interest groups during the legislative session.  This latter feature is a key difference between Chihuahua and New Mexico, enhancing the relative power of the governor of Chihuahua.

In recent weeks the previous two governors have been in the news and opinion sections of newspapers, for different reasons.  Javier Corral, who left office in September 2021, has been outed as having lied that he was not a citizen of the US as well as Mexico.  Born in El Paso, he never renounced his US citizenship, a fact that, if known, would have made him ineligible to run for office.  He is also accused of leaving a budget deficit of several billion dollars and of using his position to benefit his family members and personal properties.  He has launched a strong media campaign in his own defense.  Upon leaving office in 2016 Cesar Duarte fled to El Paso, where he lived on the lam for two or three years before going even more incognito as Mexican government officials sought to question him about financial misconduct during his tenure in office.  He was subsequently arrested in the US.  Many believe he stole at least twice as much as the $100 million he is accused of misappropriating in documents provided by the Mexican government as part of proceedings to extradite him to Mexico.

 

 Juarez is Catching up to Tijuana Death Rate:  Is New Mexico's Race to the Bottom Contagious to Our Neighbors to the South?

La Polaka reports that in the early morning of January 19 the charred body of a man was found in Colonia Francisco Villa, not far from the river and I-10 and UTEP on the other side.  Other than that there appears to have been a lull in homicides this week, although the monthly total so far is 68 and counting

Meanwhile Norte Digital reports that over 73% of juarenses feel less secure than they did three months ago, a huge increase over the 59% recorded by a National Urban Security Survey.  Juarez is now the second most dangerous city in Mexico, behind Tijuana, also on the border with the US.

 Rio Grande Foundation Files Ethics Complaint Against Rep. Dayan Hochman Vigil:  More Stuff About What has become known as Spacepork America

Paul Gessing, of the Rio Grande Foundation, has filed an ethics complaint against Dem Representative Dayan Hochman-Vigil, for several conflicts of interest between her role as a legislator and her private client, Spaceport America.  The Spaceport came to be known as "Spacepork New Mexico" after Kathleen Sloan, of the Sierra County Sun used the term as she summarized some of the wrongdoing outlined by an audit of the agency conducted in 2020.  Dan Hicks, Spaceport Director, was fired as some of these revelations became known.

More recently, Andy Lyman of the NM Political Report reports the chief financial officer at Spaceport during Hicks' tenure filed a whistleblower lawsuit in early January of this year against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and 20 other state officials for what he alleges was an effort to cover up much of the wrongdoing. 

As Paul Gessing put it in his Errors of Enchantment blog yesterday, referring to Rep Hochman-Vigil, for a legislator to "legisla(te) on behalf of a client is just not right."

 

 The Mask of Authority:  Michelle Bares Her Face in Public As the Crisis in the Ukraine Lays Bare the Growing Chinks in the International Order That Used to be Managed by US

Much has been made in the past two days about MLG's appearance, pre-recorded, on the first day of the session, without even the trace of a mask.  Predictably, liberals were offended she had not "signalled" the importance of masking in defiance against the defiance of anti-maskers, while conservatives, who were looking for something not to like, were confident that her avoidance of masking up was a cheap trick of symbolism to try to appeal to the conservative "base" rather than a signal of solidarity with non-maskers.  Did anyone listen to what she said?  Did anyone take what she said at face value anymore?  Is this due to something about her actions as governor, or is this happening to virtually all persons in positions of authority?

Our wacko political culture, carefully nurtured by highly paid PR amorals operating at the highest places in recent years, has brought us to this.  When politics in the US is reduced mainly to symbolic rather than real-life action, even symbolic actions refuse to be taken at face value as they are interpreted by an increasingly hysterical public.  Think about this:  MLG's decision of whether to show a mask or not was, of course, a political decision, meant to signal.  Viewers' interpretation of this symbolic move varied predictably according to the conflicting algorithms powerful forces have tried successfully to imbue in the public at large.  Did I say "conflicting" algorithms?  Actually, they are mirror images, each predicting what the other will say, so the term conflict does not mean they are unrelated; they are tied to each other inexorably, in a mental maze from which there is no exit.

Underlying this craziness is a crisis of authority operating at levels far above the level of political culture nurtured by the science of advertising, as it hones in on the subtle triggers of human emotion.  The crisis lies not with the people.  Although the people have been infected with the disease of rigid ideological thinking, which is a form of mental illness, there is no political conflict within the public at large:  Democrats and Republicans all want the same thing--clean water, better health care, better transportation, decent wages, and a political system that works, and fair, equal treatment for black Americans--there are no internal conflicts.  So if not with the public, where does the crisis lie?  Is it with political parties?  Much of the media would have you think so.  Hyper-partisanship, CNN seems to say, is the problem;  Democrats, Fox News seems to say, are the problem.  Might the problem lie far above the stuffy faces of Mitch McConnell or Chuck Schumer?  

Might this crisis of authority have something to do with the rise of China, the renewed aggressiveness against the US in Russia, and the impending collapse of the international order carefully crafted by American statesmen after World War II and squandered over the past two decades in expensive and do-nothing wars, and a NATO trying to figure out if it still has utility, and the Brits choosing to be led by a clown?  The origins of the mini-crisis to mask or not to mask in New Mexico really have to do with a growing lack of confidence in that international order as China demands some attention, Russia tries to rebuild their empire, and the movement of powerful forces within the US trying to figure out their best moves given these realities.  Does NM have a stake in what happens to the global power of the United States?  Should New Mexicans worry about the price of oil in Saudi Arabia and natural gas in Germany, and the places where microchips are produced?  What about our standing in educational achievement among the states, something both parties refuse to discuss?  Or, instead, should we worry about who sends what the messages of masking?

Legislative Session Begins in Santa Fe

The legislature is poised to spend record $8.4 Billion of our taxpayer money 30 days from now, and the biggest pot of money to pay for it are revenues raised in the oil patch, insulted a few weeks ago in special session with a redistricting bill, passed, that splits up the area into three Congressional seats, a move that is almost certain to be challenged in court. 

The redistricting actions of last month might better be called Operation Just Because We Can--something that seems to characterize many state legislatures moving away from democratic norms toward rigging outcomes beforehand, relying on statistical probabilities instead of persuasion of voters through concrete proposals for governing.  In the future Nate Silver will call all elections a year early with proprietary algorithms and our political institutions will move to accommodate his predictions, after legislators adjust their individual actions based on these predictions.

The quickest way to get civility back into legislatures is to make each district as competitive as possible, forcing legislators to go with the majority of voters (something desirable in a democracy) but the state and national trend is in the opposite direction, guaranteeing future conflict:  divided we fall.  Why are we moving in this direction?  This is a question worth asking.  Is it just a mistake or is something else going on?

 From the looks of it, the emotional fallout from redistricting is setting the tone for the beginning of the session.  Democrats in the senate, especially, seem uncertain about their internal pecking order, with Senator Linda Lopez signalling a move against President Pro Tem Mimi Stewart, which failed, and the senate revisiting the complaints that surfaced last month from now-independent Senator Jacob Candelaria, by signalling a move to strip him from his position on the Senate Finance Committee.

Perhaps hoping to shift toward a less-contentious atmosphere, the Governor asked legislators to "think big" this session, without spelling out what that might mean.  For some that might sound scary; for others it simply means a shot at spending more taxpayer money in an election year in one's own district in the notoriously wasteful capital outlay process; and for others, it means throwing money at favorite causes, like childhood education, without setting goals for achievement or chains of accountability.  Education will get more money, but no one believes anymore that the dismal achievement scores of students, the lack of adquate college preparation, and the failure of imagination among education leaders at all levels--will improve our standing as 50th in the nation.

 

Should Albuquerque Be Grateful Crime Isn't Worse?

Winter Crime Wave in Cd. Juárez

61 Homicides So Far in January

Diario de Juárez:  Last night a group of thieves wearing the tactical uniforms of municipal police held up a supermarket at 9:10 pm, forcing clerks to fork out 29,000 pesos (about $1500 US) from cash registers.  A 17-year old adolescent was shot and killed in a residential house in Finca Bonita, in the Southeast section of town, the second killing of the day.  Earlier a man was shot and killed while walking on a street in Ampliacion Felipe Angeles.  Seven persons were murdered on Sunday.  La Polaka reports a shoe store specializing in runner's shoes was burned last night in downtown Juárez, part of a rash of burnings in recent days.  The burnings are believed to be the work of extortionists, often perpetrated by retail drug organizations raising a little extra cash on the side.

Last Thursday 10 vehicles were burned, and two convenience stores were set afire, apparently the work of extortionists.  Yesterday the dismembered bodies of a married couple--two women--were found on the Juárez-El Porvenir highway in the Southeast area of the city.  Initial reports indicated they were from El Paso.

Governor Maru Campos announced the beginning of helicopter patrols of the city, combined with a return to random checkpoints in strategic areas of the city.

Mayor Pérez Cuellar yesterday announced there would be an unprecedented investment in security measures in Juarez, by the municipality, state, and federal government.  Random patrols will increase from 300 per day to 800.  One thousand street cameras will be installed.  More patrol cars will be purchased. 

By contrast, Albuquerque had 117 homicides in all of 2021.  So far this year here have been 8 homicides.

                                                                 Foto Diario Staff
 

 What's Going On in Drug Trafficking in Mexico?

 Like any contemporary self-respecting oligopoly or monopoly with global reach--petroleum producers, car manufacturers, smart-phone makers, airlines, cable news networks,etc.--Mexican drug cartels have hedged their bets on the future through diversification.  Today's drug organizations in Mexico have not only diversified their product portfolios.  Three decades ago cartels trafficked only of marijuana, cocaine, and heroin.  Since then drug cartels have become efficient producers of fentanyl (which has the highest profit margins) adding synthetic drugs, methamphetamines, etc. to the mix, but also into related activities such as extortion, money laundering, and weapons markets.  By any measure these oligopolies in Mexico are prospering and expanding their activities.  By continuing to specialize in illicit businesses, today's drug-based organizations continue to enjoy exceptionally high profit margins compared with, say the airline industry.  And, after a period of upstart organizations competing with the big boys for some of the action, the market appears to be stabilizing into a couple of major players with a handful of national organizations and a few dozen local organizations in on the action, affiliated to these giants.

The biggest player of them all is still the Sinaloa cartel, probably the oldest, operating in the Northwestern quadrant of Mexico.   After Chapo was sent to an escape-proof prison in the US, El Mayo Zambada is believed to have taken over some of the business.  He has been around a long time and is now over 70 years old.  Jose Esparragoza "El Azul," a fellow player, died of Covid, and there appears be an ongoing power struggle to replace this aging leadership.

Another major player by anyone's calculus is the CJNG, Jalisco's Nueva Generacion, operating largely in Central Mexico.  CJNG lost no time in expanding its activities when the Sinaloa Cartel was weakened a few years ago after the shake-up of Chapo's capture.  Headed by Nemesio Oseguera Martinez, "El Mencho," the cartel is also experiencing tensions related to a transition from El Mencho to younger lieutenants.

A host of other organizations take up a good deal of Mexico's geography, probably in more of a subsidiary role to these two giants, since no other organization has been able to corner the market on all facets of trafficking, from harvesting poppy seeds, obtaining farmaceutical products for making fentanyl, maintaining supply chains of cocaine from South America, etc., to delivering shipments to and across the border, warehousing of the product, government relations, laundering money, distributing the product to local retailers in large cities, etc.  Among these are the Juarez cartel, with it armed force called "la Linea," the Knights Templars, the Arellano Felix organization with its armed force "los Zetas" in Tijuana, La Familia Michoacana, and the Beltran Leyva organization.  And another one called Los Viagra.  Depending on the source, there are anywhere from 7 large-scale operations to hundreds of smaller organizations.  And at any given time one or more of these is on the up- or downswing.

Juarez has come under the cone of influence of the Sinaloa cartel, although the Juarez cartel is said to maintain an active and important presence in most parts of the city.

At the national level, each president for the past 7 or eight decades has had to deal with the economic and political realities of these organizations, and at the statewide and local levels governors have learned how to navigate between public opinion, which turns against the government when violence reaches high levels, and the demands of law enforcement officials who would thwart these activities.  President Lopez Obrador has focused most of his policy orientation toward dealing with organized criminal pipeline theft of oil--a serious issue affecting government revenues, rather than disrupting the activities of drug-specific organizations. 

 

 Blame it on the Indians?

It began as a whispered ripple on a boring day in the covid-empty hallways of the roundhouse during the special gerrymandering session.  Regis Pecos, an elegant, articulate man, perhaps New Mexico's most experienced Pueblo tribesman in the NM legislative process, could be seen in the galleries and in hallways.  Senator Shannon Pinto, grandaughter of the late Code Talker from the Navajo world, was also prominent.  Georgene Louis, an Acoma native, UNM-educated attorney recently elected to a Latino House district in Albuquerque, was co-sponsoring a redistricting bill with Joseph Cervantes from Las Cruces.  Someone whispered to me in the gallery, "the Indians are working together here" as I glanced that moment at Regis Pecos talking to someone a few rows away from me.  The Albuquerque Journal asserted that Native Americans had stuck together to maximize their votes.  Good! Indians have been collateral damage or worse in previous redistricting sessions. Good for the tribes this time around.

But when the votes were in and people started looking at maps, the sins of the session became clear, and they were not the product of Indian power.  The East Side was split up for the first time since NM had qualified for 2 congressional seats, way back in the 1970s. One of the most coherent "communities of interest" in New Mexico would be split up at the federal level. That is a legal no-no, and will almost certainly be challenged in court.  There was more.  Two Republican Hispanics had been pitted against each other in the same seat.  Barelas was split off from the South Valley of Albuquerque, breaking up another significant community of interests at the federal level.  And rumor had it, later confirmed, Georgene Louis, who ran for Congress not long ago, lives in that part of the gerrymandering geography that suddenly placed her and the South Valley of Albuquerque, in CD2, leading to speculation she might be planning to run for Congress in CD2, long a bastion of federal strength for Southern New Mexico.  Senator Candelaria had a melt-down on the floor as he looked at the mischief done behind his back to his district.  He had announced well in advance (a tactical mistake, but ethically correct) he would not seek re-election, so there was a scramble to split up his constituents, against redistricting guidelines that protect communities of interest from being split up.

As legislators who voted for these bills began explaining their unfair actions, there was a whispered undertone:  the Indians controlled redistricting this time around.  Come again? Progressive legislators, at last in charge but perhaps too clever for their own good, seem to be using the perfectly legitimate lobbying by Indians as a mask to cover up their messes, relying on the sympathy many New Mexicans have for the interests of natives to justify the damage done to other, larger, communities of interest.  But Regis Pecos didn't cast a single vote, nor did the Apaches or Navajo.  And for a legislator to imply that Indians controlled things is to confess you didn't vote for what you believed in.  The vote was yours.  Less than 3% of the population on the East side is native, concentrated in Lincoln and Otero counties, so there was no benefit to natives to eviscerate the South.  And progressives had many paths to protect natives without damaging those of us who live in the South.

 Does this Tango Sound Familiar?

 

Below are lyrics I translated of a famous Tango from Buenos Aires written in 1934, in the middle of what is known by historians as "The Infamous Decade," (1930-1943) which led to the coming to power of a charismatic fascist military officer by the name of Juan Peron in 1946.   (You can listen to the song by clicking on this link to U Tube:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0kTiKCC3UI )

 

Background:  Argentina, far more than the US today, was a nation of immigrants.  In 1900 most people living in Argentina had been born in Europe, especially Italy.  As in the US, immigration helped create a growing working class that contributed mightily to an economy that was among the most prosperous in the world.  The immigrants brought ideas from a Europe that was seething with political upheaval related to dislocations stemming from World War I and major changes in the relationship between agriculture and industry, Germany and the rest of Europe, conflict between democratic movements and aristocratic forms of government, and conflict between labor and capital.  In 1928 Hipólito Yrogoyen was re-elected president of Argentina.  He had been president from 1916-1922, and governed on behalf of free and fair elections, expansion of suffrage, and reforms to benefit the growing middle classes.  Aristocratic forces in the large agricultural sector, industrial magnates resentful of the growing power of urban working classes, and sectors of the armed forces, were in opposition.  After the crash on Wall Street in 1929, bringing on the Great Depression, Argentina suffered disruptions in the export economy.  Forces opposed to Yrigoyen and democratic solutions, backed a military coup against Yrigoyen in 1930, headed by a pro-fascist officer, Felix Uriburu, ushered in a period of unconstitutional and often violent conflict between forces of democracy and authoritarianism, labor and capital.  Evenually these failures in governance led to the election of Juan Peron in 1946.  Peron was a fascist populist ruler with a fanatic following among working class Argentines, creating political chaos until the 1980s.  Governments that followed the coup of 1930 were the products of fraudulent elections, efforts to moderate between the economic forces that backed fascism (agriculture and industry), and efforts by working classes to establish themselves on a more secure footing.  It was also characterized by increasing corruption between government officials and agrarian and industrial interests.  This dynamic lasted until the 1980s.

 

Much of the political strife in Argentina was created by changes in the international order (Japan, Germany, and the US were on the rise, challenging England's imperial system) during the twentieth century--away from landed aristocracies toward stronger industrial economies and democratic movements spearheaded by discontented working classes who wanted a fairer share in periods of rapid economic growth.  These forces found themselves at irreconcilable odds, with no fundamental agreement among the players about how to settle these differences through the rule of law.  In this sense the Argentina of Cambalache is analagous to the situation in the US today, in which reliance on constitutional norms has given way to shouting matches in Congress, attempts to undermine honest elections, increasing levels of unaddressed fraud and corruption, a disrespect for the rule of law, and a court system that is, even at the top, increasingly partisan.   Instead of thinking about the health of the whole, partisanship, in turn, diverts attention away from the act of governance (a balancing act) on behalf of the whole, toward trivia, identity politics, deliberate lies about the nature of reality, simplistic formulas for solving the world's problems, and the pursuit of naked personal power.  Both major parties are guilty of these insults to reasonability, so much so that more people are in the "independent" category than are members of the two major parties.

The song, Cambalache, captures the frustration of ordinary people across the political spectrum at the consequences of this political instability on the collapse of ethical standards across the boards.  It also beautifully captures the urban tango-driven, Humphrey Bogart-like lifestyle and philosophy of the rising middle classes in one of the great cities of the world.  Cambalache in Argentina means pawnshop or flea market or junk store.

That the world is and has been a mess, I've always known, whether in 506 AD or in 2000.  We've always had crooks, connivers, and frauds, people happy or bitter, with values or duplicity

But that the 20th century is a showcase of arrogant maliciousness is something none of us deny

We live scrambled in a muddle of mud, a mud that's left us all with dirty hands

Today there is no difference between an honest man and a traitor, ignorant, wise, crooked, generous, or fraud/ It's all the same, nothing is better than anything else, an idiot is as valued as a great professor

There are no failures, no ladder of accomplishment, the immorals are neck and neck with us

One lives a phoney life and another robs to feed ambition, no difference between a priest, a mattress salesman, the king of clubs, a scoundrel or a bum.

 

What a lack of respect, what an assault on our reason! anyone can be a noble, anyone a thief, Stavisky and Don Bosco, and La Mignon, Carnera and Napoleon, Don Chicho and San Martin.  Like the showcases of pawnshops and flea markets, life has given us a scrambled mixture, a wounded bible weeps next to a water heater or a sable fur on a hook.  The twentieth century is a fevorish, problematic flea market, those who don't cry don't suckle, and if you're not a thief you're a fool.  Keep it up, keep it going, we'll meet inside an oven.  Dpn't think anymore, get out of the way, not one cares if you are honest, he who works day and night like an ox gets the same as a moocher or a murderer, a doctor, or an outlaw.  We live scrambled in the mud, a mud that's left us all with dirty hands. 

 

Note:  Stavisky was a famous French financier and embezzler, a sort of 1930's  Bernie Madoff; Don Bosco was a 19th century Italian saint; La Mignon was a term used in France for an effeminate man; Carnera was a famous, brutish, Italian heavyweight boxer, Don Chicho was a famous Argentine mafia boss in the 1930s; San Martin is the name of the great liberator of Argentina, Chile, and, in part, Peru, against the colonial rule of Spain.

Were the Killers Wearing Masks and Social-Distancing?

In spite of a bad case of coronavirus, a reopening of the bridges to traffic, the war within drugs continues in Juárez, as six people lost their lives in separate incidences of murder in less than 24 hours yesterday.  

Christopher Dominguez died inside a green Honda CRV driven by his wife as they and their two children were leaving a hamburger stand.  Shells of 9 mm and .223 were found nearby.  According to this morning's Diario Mr. Dominguez had served time in jail three times for theft, violent assault, and use of false documents.  

Another man was killed in the violent Southeast area of town as he was walking down the street.  Another man was killed on a roof-top in col. Anáhuc.  And a mechanic was killed as he was working on a car in front of his shop in col Patria.  Diario reports the shells found nearby are similar to ammunition  used by investigators of the state attorney general's office.

Finally, a man and his three-year old step-son were murdered in a humble home, apparently the victims of passionate jealousy.  In a tragic story written by Diario staff, two young people were placed into custody for the double homicide, one of them the daughter of an ex-wife of Mario.  According to the narrative recounted by the Diario staff, the ex-wife had apparently asked Mario to return to her, and when he refused to do so, her daughter, along with her boyfriend, planned the killings, which took place yesterday.  Several incidences of violent threats reportedly had taken place previously.

                                                                    Photo Diario Staff

Redistricting:  Can You Guess Which Communities of Interest Got Left Out?

East Side Hispanic Citizens, for One

Conservative Anglos were not the only community of interest on the East Side split up in the gerrymandering party at the Roundhouse.  I heard no voices from those in control of the party, including Hispanic legislators, express any worries about the Hispanic community of interests on the East side as these were split into three congressional districts.  Don't they count?

The heart and soul of the area known as "Little Texas" or the Oil Patch, consists of Chavez, Curry, Eddy, Lea, and Roosevelt counties.  Together, these five counties have a population of roughly 262,000 and over half of them (about 134,000) are Hispanic.  Most Hispanics there are relatively new migrants to New Mexico, having come over from Northern Mexico to become farm laborers or helping hands in the oil fields, but many have branched out to become grocery store owners, merchants, truck drivers, school teachers, officials in local and state government, etc.  They tend to cluster along the Pecos River from Carlsbad to Roswell, and also in Hobbs. Some have been spectacularly successful, as was the case with Pablo Acosta, who lived in Lovington and started smuggling heroin into the Oil Patch and ended up the first major drug lord on the US-Mexico border until he was killed at his home during a helicopter raid against him in 1987.

While Hispanics in Little Texas have a lot of common policy interests with the Anglo population there--a fair share of highway money, protecting the oil interests--the jewel of the local and state economy--on the New Mexico side of the Permian basin, etc., their interest don't always coincide with that portion of the population that parties it up in Ruidoso on hot summer weekends and during the ski season.  Medium household incomes in these five counties for Hispanics are only about 75% of White Non-Hispanic household incomes. Hispanics in these areas might, for example, be more interested in better public schools, affordable housing, higher minimum wages, strong pension funds, etc.   If you add the Hispanic populations of Otero, Lincoln, Quay, Union, De Baca, and Harding, it adds up to about 170,000, roughly 8% of the state's population and fully 17% (1/6th) of the state's Hispanic population.  Will their interests, split between three congressional seats, be better represented this way?  Have Democratic Progressives, in charge of redistricting, simply forgotten these people? 

Communities of Interest:  These are collections of people in a given territory who share history, or language, or religious beliefs, or even political ideologies.  Afro-Americans, for example tend to share common histories going back to slave ships and servitude and the rigors of living after slavery in systems rigged against their success.  Many Hispanics in New Mexico can trace ancestry and language and current ways of life back to the colonial period in Northern New Mexico.  Other Hispanic communities have common histories and share the Spanish language, occupational similarities, and often religious beliefs as immigrants to the state, especially in the past three decades.  The Supreme Court tended,  until it became partisan, to view redistricting with a skeptical eye when there is evidence of weakening the interests of these and other communities through splitting up these districts, giving them minority status such that their common interests are much less likely to be heard in governing bodies.

 New Mexico, the Nation, and the World

The Bad Guys Are Winning

The World

 The world order, built largely by the US after WWII and high on steroids after the collapse of the Soviets, is in serious crisis, disturbed by changes in its structure and in the even-handedness of the prevailing rules of the game.  Simply put, under US leadership the steroids--the shrill mantra to deregulate markets and denigrate government to the point where markets are less free and less serving of the public good than before; the manic rise in identity politics at the expense of governance; increasing military-industrial coziness and addiction to war; global abandonment of the search for the common good; hysterical denial of climate change, global tolerance for elite corruption, media amplification of extremist voices, etc.-- have weakened the entire neoliberal order, and it is now in danger of imminent collapse.  The pandemic has been a good test of the reliability of global institutions designed to manage them.  Except for the quick and effective vaccines, the global order has handled the pandemic no better than it did a century ago, and even in the case of vaccines, their distribution throughout the world has been terrible.  The failure lies not within scientific institutions, or bureaucracies, or even in the will to do something, but in politics, and the kinds of leadership politics has produced.  Our leaders and political processes have not been up to the task of governing at home, much less to provide needed leadership to manage problems of global scope.  A plague on both parties for this sorry state of affairs.

If the global order failed to deliver what it is supposed to during a pandemic, what about climate change, free capital markets, mass migrations of people, mischief and inhumanity in rogue states, social media madness, and other long-neglected issues?  Most ominously, what about the future of democracy as a national and global value?  Dictator wannabe's are rubbing their hands in anticipation as they watch crooks take over Mexico, Brazil and Turkey.  The recipe's for turning global failure into local authoritarianism can be read in dozens of recently published books, in the example set recently by the United States, and in studying the rise of Putin, Erdowan, Viktor Orban, Donald Trump, Hugo Chavez or Nicolas Maduro.  Rising authoritarianism, whether now or in Europe during the 1920's and 30's, is fueled by system failure, often during moments when power blances are shifting, and it usually results in even greater system failure, as any student of Mussolini, Venezuela, the Philippines, or Texas today, or Nicaragua can attest to.

Hundreds of millions of people throughout the world, aware of these failures, are now reassessing the viability of the current global order and this means reassessing their relationships with the US.  In doing so, they have options.  These are possible because of the first major change in the balance of global power since the collapse of bipolarity in 1989.  Within the next quarter century or so China will surpass the US as the leading economic power in the world.  It already has, if you measure by purchasing power rather than foreign exchange.  China's military expenditures, while not fully competitive with ours, are nevertheless growing. China's use of soft power in Latin America and Africa dwarfs our own.  American diplomats have spent thirty years lecturing smaller countries about democracy, deregulation of their economies and making the world safe for mega-mergers.  The Chinese simply offer trade deals, cultural exchanges, and sensitivity to local norms.  Should we blame Latin Americans for casting a skeptical eye at our lectures on holding clean elections or for questioning the benevolence of Facebook and Amazon, or for cutting another trade deal with China?  The same can be said of Europe after we left a bombed-out shell in much of the Middle East and Central Asia, abandoned all seriousness with NATO, and, here at home, sent in the clowns to govern.

New Mexico 

50th one more time:  This week New Mexico was at the bottom of the barrel again, this time for having the most serious shortages of hospital workers among the 50 states, in spite of having a relatively mild case of Covid 19.  This suggests a budding crisis in the state's health care system, already faltering in many rural areas and everywhere in mental health.  The problems are so institutionalized that a few excellent managers, including a highly competent Secretary of Health, and a healthy stock of good doctors, cannot make up for the dysfunctional system held together by the bailing wire of powerful lobbyists.  Don't expect much to be done about this anytime soon, regardless of who might end up in the governor's seat this year.  Both parties are under the tight control of lobbyists.  Meanwhile, life expectancy in New Mexico continues to decline except for the top 5% or so.  Why should we the voters keep allowing this to happen?

Redistricting:  

Democratic leadership in both houses and the governor's office carved up the Oil Patch into 3 congressional districts, an insult that will be remembered, if I know the East Side.  The Oil Patch has been a coherent region since oil was exploited in the 1920s, and it provided the state with $5.4 billion in revenues in 2021.  It deserves coherent leadership at the federal level.  In their giddy haste to stick it to Little Texas, however, the progressive coalition now governing the state may have helped stimulate a trend already visible in what we know about voting patterns:  Hispanic males, especially in el Norte, are beginning to shift slightly toward the Republican Party, having been forgotten and taken for granted during the past few governorships.  One of the side effects of this ever-so-cute move by progressives is that it left CD3 more competitive between the parties.  Only a minor shift in voting preferences could land the Republicans in control of this hitherto bastion of Democratic support.  All of the maps are tainted, and should be thrown out by federal courts, if Republicans choose to challenge.  If they do not, it may be a sign they have confidence they can compete on a relatively even playing field.

This brings me to a question about the Republican Party.  For the past decade the GOP has been floundering due to incredibly poor leadership in the Martinez administration and through internal bickerings within the party apparatus since then.  As I repeated to my students year after year, New Mexico works best when the two parties are competitive.  They have not been for a long time.  As the Romans used to say, fortune favors the bold.  Ambitious, thoughtful Republicans who care about New Mexico have an opening here.  The Trump years are over, and are highly unlikely to come back.  It is time for New Mexican Republicans to come home and worry about governing the state with excellence, not through crackpot ideologies invented in other places for other reasons.

La Sherifa:  I promised to address issues affecting the ability of our Sheriff to do her job.  However, I got kind of wordy here, and will reserve these comments for tomorrow.