Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Chapo Trial in New York
Defense Rests After Calling Only One FBI Agent to Testify

The eleven-week trial of Chapo Guzman rested yesterday with the defense presenting only one witness, an FBI agent.  The entire defense presentation lasted less than an hour.  The prosecution presented 56 witnesses.  There had been some speculation Chapo might testify on his own behalf, a risky strategy sometimes used when evidence seems overwhelming. In the end he did not.

During the trial the defense team suggested the Sinaloa Cartel was actually run by Ismael (El Mayo Zambada), who has never been apprehended, and that the case against Chapo amounts to a conspiracy between the government of Mexico, the government of the US, and El Mayo Zambada to destroy Chapo.

The trial has offered a window into the operations of one of the largest drug cartels in the world, ranging from transportation of cocaine from Colombia to Mexico, the pattern of bribery and payoffs to Mexican officials,  and operations in the mountains of Sinaloa.  Perhaps the most dramatic revelation came from a Colombian witness who claimed Chapo had paid a $100 million bribe to President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto in October 2012 through a transfer from a woman identified as "comadre Maria."  Peña Nieto, the witness said, had asked for $250 million.

 If convicted Chapo may well die in a US jail, unlikely to be able to escape via tunnel as he did once before in better, more legendary, times.

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

More Executions in Juárez

At 7:30 last night a man identified as Jose Antonio Medina Flores, a.k.a. "El Tony," 53 years of age, was executed outside a grocery store in Barrio Alto.  Several 9 mm spent cartridges were found near his body.  He had been convicted of "crimes against health," (drug stuff) and had completed a sentence in el Cereso.  According to Diario (click here) he was known to have been a sicario for La Vieja Guardia.  
 
La Vieja Guardia is a faction within the Los Aztecas (also known as Barrio Azteca, Indios, and Pencos) prison gang, associated with the Juárez Cartel.  In mid-2017, however, La Vieja Guardia broke with the Juárez Cartel in a dispute over internal promotions, a dispute that involved the Barrio Azteca hierarchy in El Paso.  At least some of its members began working for the Sinaloa Cartel--deadly rivals of the Juárez Cartel--and the feud is believed to have produced a significant spike in the number of homicides in Juárez last year.

At 10:00 pm last night a man was executed in front of his home in Col Eréndira.
 
A woman was gunned down in Col. Sendero de San Isidro, yesterday afternoon.  Her identity has not been revealed.
The Breakdown in the Rule of Law in Chihuahua State:
Train Robberies are Up Dramatically, but Puebla is Much Worse

From Diario:  (click here)  There were 27 train robberies in the last four months of 2018 in Chihuahua, up from 11 robberies in the first 8 months of 2018.  What is being stolen?  Grains and seeds, auto parts, and finished products.  But, to keep this in perspective, there were 384 train robberies in Puebla in 2018, in spite of successful measures taken by that state government to curtail these incidences.

Monday, January 28, 2019


Fighting City Hall:  Misiones Shopping Mall Charging Parking Fees Again

 The Misiones shopping center, an uptown, upscale spot right around the corner from the US Consulate offices, has again begun charging parking fees, in spite of protests by citizens directed at city ordinances that have recently granted permission to begin charging fees again.  This is a sore spot for many shoppers, some of whom have found alternate parking places nearby, while others, have simply stopped making purchases at Misiones.  One client dropped her membership at a gymnasium in the center in protest.  See Diario, this morning (here) for story.  The Sanborns restaurant at Misiones never seemed to have as much business as the one on 16 de Septiembre across from the Lucerna hotel, and I would bet it's business will decline.

In the bad old days of Juárez, 2009-2012, there may have been some justification for stopping each car on the way out, as a security measure, but when things calmed down it seemed like a rip-off and in 2016 the municipality, citing technical violations, forced the mall to eliminate the inconvenience.  Now, just a few months after Hector Cabada was declared the victor in a close and controversially determined mayoral election, the city has ordained that the fees can start up again.  Misiones announced the resumption of the fees in early January, but after protests, this was suspended on Jan. 18, citing further technical violations.  These, apparently, have been cleaned up and fees have resumed.  So have protests, including complaints by the two duly elected congressional delegates to the national assembly.

Juárez Homicides on Pace with 2018

With three days yet to go in January my count is about 97 homicides so far this month.  Yesterday four dead bodies were found scattered in an empty lot in Col Carlos Chavira, one of them with a disfigured face and signs of torture.  Another man, fleeing from pursuers, jumped out of his Ram pickup and ran for his life, but gunmen caught up to him, shot him several times, and left him dead on the median in Col. Vicente Guerrero.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

January Murders in Juárez: 90 and Counting

The 2019  homicide count in Cd. Juárez, if it continues at this pace, will equal the 2018 death toll of 1247.

From:  Diario de Juárez (click here)
**A man was shot to death last night in a house in Col Jardines del Aeropuerto.  
**a man and a woman were found dead last night, hands tied, wrapped in a black plastic garbage gag, in a building used as a storehouse in Col. El Granjero.  
**aT 9:30 pm last night a man was shot to death in Col Castillo Peraza, in the Southwest section of Juárez. Fifteen spent 9 mm. cartridges were found near the body
**At 10:30 pm another man was executed on the street in Col. del Carmen
**On Thursday afternoon a man was executed with three shots to the head after being forced to get out of the vehicle he was driving, in Col Oasis Revolucion.

Friday, January 25, 2019

Another Entry in the Juárez Vocabulary of Death:
La Muerte de un Volteado
Man Found Executed, Dressed with a Red Dress and High Heels

Foto Diario de Juarez, Jan. 25 2019 (click here for story)
Diario de Juarez this morning (click here) has a picture of a man found murdered in an empty lot yesterday near the Avenida de las Torres.  He had on a red dress and high-heel shoes were ties to his feet.

Among the Signatures of Death in Juárez: (Not necessarily in chronological order of appearance):

There are encobijados:  people executed and then wrapped in a blanket, to be discovered.
Then there are encajuelados:  people executed and placed the the trunk of an automobile.  this led to the encobijado who was also encajuelado
Then there are calcinados, people who were doused with gasoline and then burned to death
Then there are torturados before execution
Then there are amputados, those executed and then amputated (hands, fingers, tongue, etc. suggesting motives for the killing (theft, betrayal, etc)
then there are entambados, those executed and placed in a trash barrel
Then there are estrangulados or asfixiados
Then there are enteipados, those executed and then head bandaged with duct tape
Then there are descapitados, 
Then there are atropellados, run over by a car.
Then there are colgados, people executed and then hung over a bridge, often with a narco-manta (banner)
Then there are decorados, people executed and "decorated" with a pig mask, pants pulled down, etc.

Now, recently, we have seen a new signature of death in Juárez:  feminizado, or volteado (?) I haven't yet heard a term used to describe this practice, of dressing an executed man in women's clothing, so this is only tentative.  According to the above story in Diario, this signature of death is known as the muerte de un volteado (death of a turncoat).   It is practiced by street gangs who execute a former member who has betrayed his fellow members by joining another gang.

Mexico is one of the most creative countries in the world, and Mexicans have long history of fascination with death.  One artist of the Mexican Revolution, Jose Guadalupe Posada (see below) captured this fascination; a more contemporary example are the calaveras catrinas.  My wife Olivia (from the Nevarez family of Las Cruces) has a collection of these.

From:  Alfalfa Studio (click here)

Jose Guadalupe Posada


More on "Huachicol"

From Wikipedia:  According to a Mexican expert on the origin of language, Arturo Ortega Moran, the word derives from the Latin word "aquati," which means "watery."  It was used in Europe during the 16th century by artists to refer to diluting pigments with water.  In France this term was spelled "gouache," and during the French occupation of Mexico in the nineteenth century the term was used by artists, as in "painting a la guach."  The term was used subsequently in Mexico to refer to sellers of tequila and cane sugar who added water to the product to stretch profits, as in "guchicolero" or "huachicolero."  In the age of automobiles vendors of gasoline who watered down their product became known as "huachicoleros."  Today, with the sudden rise in stealing gasoline from Pemex, the term has come to mean "those who steal and sell gasoline." 

There is a different version circulating as well.  According to the Diccionario de Mexicanismos, the word derives from the Mayan word "waach," which referred to "outsiders."  This term was translated into Spanish as "guache," or "huache."  Over time the meaning morphed into a term used to describe something of poor quality, or false, and was used especially to refer to people who adulterated tequila or cane liquor.  Today it refers to those who steal and sell gasoline, and is gradually extending to include public corruption, at least as it is sometimes being used in Juárez.

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Petroleum Theft in Mexico: Coming to the Borderlands?
The New Meaning of the Mexican Word "Huachicol"

Adding to the woes of Mexico due to violence in drug trafficking, growing addiction rates among Mexicans, insults about Mexicans from the President of the United States, growing kleptocracy at all levels, and a serious decline in the maintenance of the rule of law--add petroleum theft from Pemex.

In 2012 the pilfering of oil supplies from Pemex amounted to about $390 million (US).  In 2017 this had grown exponentially up to about $3.7 Billion.  The major difference is that the drug cartels have diversified their business model to include theft of petroleum. Journalists in Mexico complain Pemex officials have been overly secretive about these incidences, suggesting perhaps some collusion within Pemex.  The most obvious consequence of the theft of petroleum is the increasing scarcity of gasoline in filling stations, where long lines are frequent, particularly in the states most affected.  Also obvious are the salespersons on streetcorners selling gasoline in small containers.

We don't hear much about this on the US-Mexico border, because petroleum theft has expanded largely from the Southern states of Puebla, Veracruz, and Hidalgo to the states ot Tlaxcala, Edomex, Queretaro, Guanajuato, Jalisco, and Michoacan.  But petroleum theft has already arrived in relatively small quantities to the Border, including Chihuahua.  Just yesterday law enforcement agents for Pemex discovered a clandestine pipe was leaking oil out of a Pemex pipeline near Chihuahua city.  And the other day some mischief was discovered near Pemex facilities in the Southern part of Juárez.

In vernacular Mexican Spanish, for some reason the term "huachicol" has now become synonymous with the theft of gasoline.  More generically, it refers to illicit activity of any kind.  But in news media outlets it has come to refer more specifically to the stealing and sale of gasoline from Pemex. However, in Juárez it still refers to illicit activity, at least up to now.  For example, (see yesterday's post) the cash payments allegedly made by Governor Duarte to, among others, the three most mentioned candidates for the 2022 Governor's race in Chihuahua, is referred to as the "huachicoleo" ("mischief" might be an adequate term in English) now disclosed by law enforcement agencies seeking Duarte's extradition from El Paso to Mexico.

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Photo Diario de Juárez

Death on a Juárez Tuesday
Newpaper Reveals Names of Beneficiaries of Governor Duarte's Slush Fund

Yesterday afternoon the body of a man was found in an arroyo in Col. Libertad.  Last night a man was murdered by gunfire in Col. Juanita Luna.  He was wearing a black jacket with a white shirt, gray pants, and white running shoes.  He was lying face-up with his arms over his head next to the a white wall sprinkled with his blood.  In Chihuahua a former police officer was gunned down while driving a gray Cavalier.

Meanwhile, Reforma (a newspaper) continues to reveal details about the use of the slush fund or public funds allegedly used by Governor Duarte.  According to Reforma current Mayor of Juarez Armando Cabada received 4.9 million pesos (about $258,000 US).  He acknowledges receipt of the funds but states they were properly used to prepare a party for one of Duarte's visits to the city.

Maru Campos, former Mayor of Chihuahua, is said to have received $7.1 million ($373,000 US) in 27 payments between 2014 adn 2015.

Other names of recipients include Cruz Perez Cuerllar, current senator for the Morena Party ($1.3 million pesos), and Beatriz Rangel, senator and ex-president of the Juarez PRI party.


Tuesday, January 22, 2019

The Chapo Trial in NY:  Chapo and His Wife Dress in Perfectly Matching Outfits This Morning
While Chapo's Former Mistress Testifies Against Him
Meanwhile 8 Homicides in 24 Hours in Juárez, Where Chapo Once Reigned Supreme

NY City Tues. Jan. 22. Jackets made of burgundy-colored velvet, white shirts, black pants, matching handkerchiefs.  His lawyers claim they had no prior knowledge of the matching clothing, in spite of knowing his wife decides what Chapo will wear during his trial.  Meanwhile Chapo's former mistress continues to tell tales of the adventuresome life she led with Chapo while he was on the run.

Juárez, Tues Jan 22:  A man was found dead from multiple knife wounds this morning in an empty lot in Chaveña.  Another man was killed at noon on Tuesday on Ave. de la Raza, a major boulevard.  Yesterday six persons were executed by gunfire in four incidents, one encobijado and another, about 35 years of age, was tortured and then strangled and left at the intersection of Acacias and Fundadores.  Juárez became the most violent city in the world in 2010, as a result of the conflict between the Sinaloa Cartel, run by Chapo, and the Juárez Cartel, over which organization would reign supreme in the transporting of drugs to El Paso.  When Chapo had the Juárez Cartel on the run a couple years later, the violence dropped.  It has recently returned.
Source:  Diario de Juárez (click here)


Stiff Budget Cuts in Chihuahua State for 2019
How Does the Chihuahua State Budget Compare With New Mexico's?

While politicians in New Mexico debate how to spend (invest?  squander? recover from the past few years?) another billion or so in loose state money, and whether to dip a finger into the Permanent Fund for early childhood education, citizens in our neighboring state of Chihuahua, making do with a much smaller state budget, are facing serious budget cuts in the middle of a civic nightmare in which the rule of law in many places has broken down.  Let us for a few seconds be grateful as New Mexicans for what we have.

Quick digression:  By the way, the tab for early childhood education--for everyone--has been picked up by the Mexican federal government ever since the Mexican Revolution about a hundred years ago.  Rosaura Zapata, who created the Mexican pre-school system after visiting many kinder schools in Europe to pick up ideas, was named Inspector General of kindergartens in Mexico, way back in 1928, more than 90 years ago.  And also by the way, has anyone in NM gone to countries that outrank us in education to pick up ideas about how best to do early childhood?  Do we have the slightest idea what values and expectations we will have for children going to pre-school?  How would we know if the system is working?  Are we supposed to take it on faith this is the magic bullet that will lead us out of the wilderness of 50th in education?  Mexico has universal public pre-school but it's math, reading, and science scores for 15-year olds on the PISA tests show it to rank 57 among countries participating in the tests.  The US scores 31st, behind Viet Nam and Poland.  Isn't it time the state set goals and deadlines for lifting us out of 50th in education?

Back to the Chihuahua Budget:  Chihuahua Governor Corral, of the PAN Party, complained bitterly last month that newly-eleted President Armando Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) was cutting the Chihuahua State Budget (in Mexico state budgets are determined by the President) by 23% (about $223 million US dollars) in 2019.  The money saved by the President, Governor Corral quipped, would likely be used for national "assistance programs as an electoral strategy."

How Big is the Chihuahua State budget?  The Chihuahua State budget, in pesos is $66.9 Billion, which amounts to about US $3.5 Billion at the exchange rate of 19-to-one.  By contrast, the New Mexico budget is around $6.3 Billion.  In state government expenditures per capita this amounts to around $3009.  Chihuahua state has a population of about 3.6 million (compared to NM's 2.1 million), so the per capita expenditures amount to around $975, about one third as much as in NM.  but a dollar-for-dollar comparison doesn't tell the full story, since wages and the cost of living in Chihuahua are much lower than in New Mexico, so a dollar goes farther in purchasing power in Chihuahua than here.

Monday, January 21, 2019

Juarez:  Sixty Eight Homicides So Far in January
Recent Incidences Reveal Increased Audacity, Disregard for Human Life

From Diario, Jan. 21Among the victims of homicide are two who were incinerated, three decapitated, one smothered to death, another run over intentionally, five encobijados, and several killed by gunfire in front of dozens of witnesses in public places.  A bus was hijacked by gunmen and then burned.  Yesterday (Sunday) at 10:00 am gunmen went to a used car lot, in front of many witnesses, and stole three late-model vehicles after tearing down the protective chain.  The other day there was another attack on a police station, this time the Distrito Oriente, after which the same gunmen carjacked a vehicle being driven by a woman while they were escaping.  In this summary, written by the Diario staff, the suthors suggest things are beginning to be reminiscent of the year 2010, when Juárez became the most violent city in the world.

Insights of the Corrupt Use of State Funds by Governor Duarte
Accused of Stealing More than $300 million (US)
Former Chihuahua State Governor Duarte, Wanted in Mexico, Presumably Still Living in El Paso

 From Diario de Juárez, Jan. 21, Citing Agencia Reforma Jan 20.:  The federal treasury department in Mexico City has revealed details on how Cesar Duarte, Governor of Chihuahua from 2010-2016 allegedly diverted about $27 million in state funds to pay off political parties, legislators, opposition leaders, family members, clerics, local journalists, and leaders of social movements.  Duarte, who is said to be living in El Paso, is wanted in Mexico in connection with multiple accusations of corruption.  Thus far, federal authorities have not asked the US for his extradition.  There are many other accusations for which Duarte is wanted in Mexico, as well, adding up to about $6 billion pesos, or about $315 million dollars.  President AMLO (Lopez Obrador) has indicated various times that legal proceedings to request extradition of Duarte are under way.

To cover up this use of funds state government officials wrote out 10 phony contracts, supposedly for the purchase by the state of basic products, such as milk, rice, and beans; to pay for training of drivers for the ViveBus transportation service; and for producing a booklet on the prevention of violence against women.  Instead, the funds were endorsed via checks to the Panamerican Protection Service, which then converted the funds to cash, and then returned them to the Chihuahua state account where the funds were disbursed to various individuals and organizations.  There is no accounting for the supposed purchases of milk, rice, beans, etc.

Friday, January 18, 2019

How Much Does a Dose of Heroin Cost in Juárez?
How Much Money is Generated in One Year from Local Sales of Illegal Drugs in Juárez? 
How Many Drug Addicts Are there in Juárez?

 Source:  Data used in the first three paragraphs of this reportDiario de Juárez, November 16, 2018, "Controlan Cinco Bandas Narcomenudeo."

Marijuana:  This is the cheapest and most popular high; price is one to three dollars per joint
Heroin:  Three dollars to $3.50 (US) per dose;  the most expensive, called a "pelotita" (little ball) is $4.00
Cocaine:  Five dollars to $7.50 for two lines.
Crystal Meth:  Between $4.00 and $6.00, depending on the quantity

Warning:  Over 5000 arrests were made last year in Juárez of adults selling drugs, plus more than 500 minors.  Picaderos and people buying drugs from puchadores may be under surveillance by police or rivals.  I strongly recommend against trying to purchase illegal drugs there.  This is a dangerous business and it is not hard to get into serious trouble--read on.

About 7000 people in Juárez are involved in the retail sales of these drugs.  Police estimate that last year conflict over the retail sale of drugs for local consumption resulted in about 900 of the 1247 homicides registered by police. 

The Observatorio de Prevencion, Seguridad y Justicia de Juarez (click here), an NGO keeping tabs on various security issues for Juarez, estimates there are about 45,000 drug addicts in Cd. Juárez today.  That is about 3% of the total population.  By comparison, 9% of Baltimore is addicted to heroin alone (60,000 addicts out of a population of 645,000).  And nationwide about one in twelve teenagers, and about one in six young adults from 18-25, are afflicted with a "substance use disorder."  I wasn't able to find comparable stats for Albuquerque, but New Mexico ranks No. 3 in the nation for teenage drug use, so it must be much higher than Juárez.  Bottom line:  In spite of rapid growth in usage, drug abuse is not as prevalent in Juarez as in the US, at least not yet.

Sales of illicit drugs in Juárez generate about $150 million (dollars) per year, in a city of about 1.5 million.  That amounts of $100 (US) per capita.  By comparison, he annual budget for the Municipality of Juárez is a little over $200 million.  

Stated slightly differently, the 7000 persons involved in selling retail drugs in Juarez generate an average of more than  $21,000 each in sales (150 million divided by 7000), in a city in which per capita income is about $3800 per year (New Mexico per capita income in 2017 was about $41,000).  Most of the sales force, however, is very poor, unemployed, and likely to be addicted.  Their lifestyles are not improving from the sales they make.  Others make the big profits.

The explosion of local drug consumption has taken place almost entirely in the last two decades, driven by three forces.  First, the Juárez cartel made a decision about two decades ago to begin paying some of their local business associates--drivers, warehousers, security forces, etc.-- in cocaine packages rather than in cash.  Since not all of this ended up crossing into the US, there was an immediate increase in the supply of cocaine available in Juárez, a strong motivator to dramatically increase the local market size for cocaine.  Since then the market for heroin and crystal meth has skyrocketed.  Second, as the Sinaloa cartel gained strength in Juárez around 2007, both the Juárez cartel and the Sinaloa cartel began to use prison gang members in Juárez and El Paso as security forces.  These gangs began taking over local retail marketing, aggressively pushing recreational use of drugs.  Third, for reasons still heatedly debated, popular culture in Juárez grew more tolerant of recreational use of drugs in the past fifteen years, particularly among youths, apparently from all class backgrounds.

Yes, Juárez Homicides Are Up: But
Tijuana is Worse

The homicide count for 2018 in Tijuana is 2502, or thereabouts.  This compares with half as many homicides, 1247, in Juaritos.  It is spiking pretty much for the same reasons it is up in Cd. Juárez:  there is a continual battle over turf between drug gangs for the right to sell drugs on the street.

This raises the question:  what kinds of social forces are at work to make the demand for heroin, coke, crystal meth, and other chemical substances escalate so quickly?  Twenty years ago there was virtually no demand for these drugs in either city. 

Availability of these drugs is part of the answer.  Twenty years ago there were no street gangs pushing drugs at every street corner.  Now, according to estimates, there are 6000 street pushers spread throughout Juárez, in a population of 1.5 million.  That amounts to one pusher for every 250 persons.  Since about 20% of Juárez is between 15-24, this would mean there is one drug pusher for every Juarense who is between 15-24 years of age.  It's not hard to find heroin and a syringe in Juárez.

But are there other forces at work on the demand side?  Is the family unit in Juarez and Tijuana breaking down as it did in the US in the 1980s and 1990s?  Is the evolution of society alienating young people?  Do young people have too much idle time?

Is there a roll for us, as neighbors, to play in all of this?

Thursday, January 17, 2019

1247 Murders in Cd. Juárez in 2018
Yes, the Drug-related Violence Continues to Grow in Juaritos
About 50 Murders So Far in 2019

The grisly count:  

2013:  485 murders
2014:  430 murders
2015:  322 murders
2016:  546 murders
2017:  772 murders
2018:  1247 murders

What is Going On?

As the Chapo trial goes on in New York, we are learning much about drug trafficking at the highest levels in Mexico.  Last week we learned Mexican President Peña Nieto (2012-2018) took a $100 million bribe from Chapo to protect his activities from the law.  It has been common knowledge in Juárez that the President was protecting Chapo (Sinaloa Cartel), at the expense of the Juárez, or La Linea, cartel.  It is inconceivable that Chapo could have all but displaced the Juárez cartel--at that time perhaps the strongest drug cartel in the world--as early as 2012 without this kind of in-your-face protection from the highest levels of the federal government.  The fallout from this protection racket, however, led to many deaths.

Who is Getting Killed?  The Anatomy of  Escalating Murder in Juárez

Much of the violence in Juárez since 2007 is due to the arrival of the Sinaloa Cartel in Juárez in 2001 or so to compete with the La Linea Cartel for the highly lucrative "plaza" (territory, or city) that is an ideal platform for shipping drugs to El Paso.  Seventy percent of the cocaine going into the US goes through Juarez, according to estimates.  This competition has led to two sets of homicides.  First, those generated by efforts of one cartel to disrupt the infrastructure needed by the rival cartel.  At any given time each cartel employs a lot of people involved in the business:  transportation specialists, body shops to make false compartments in vehicles, warehousing specialists, security forces, money launderers, drivers to cross into El Paso, etc.  Occasionally one or more of these specialists will be targeted for murder as a means of interrupting the rival cartel's flow of commerce into the US. or discourage defection to the other cartel or to settle scores with a dishonest employee.  The security force used to impose discipline on the Juárez cartel is known as La Linea.  When Chapo began to compete openly for control of the plaza in 2007 the enforcement squad he created was known as the Gente Nueva, recruited from the ranks of disgruntled members of La Linea.  Some of the people killed in Juárez stem from gunfire directed by La Linea or Gente Nueva at each other or at personnel working for the other side.

The second category of homicide was created by the decision of the Juarez cartel in 2008 to add a prison gang, the Barrio Azteca, (formed in the US in 1986) as part of its security network.  As many as 5000 Azteca gang members live in Juárez, perhaps half as many in El Paso.  In response to this the Sinaloa cartel began employing two prison gangs, the Mexicles--composed of men deported from prisons in the US--and the Artistas Asesinos (or Doblados) another prison gang.  Another key decision, perhaps needed to assure a high degree to motivation, was to allow these gangs to take over the increasingly lucrative retail drug sales force in Cd. Juárez.  As drug sales in Juárez skyrocketed upwards during the past 15 years or so, turf battles have led to many deaths as one gang kills someone affiliated with a rival gang in areas thought to be within their turf.  By 2009 there were an estimated 6000 places (known as picaderos) one could go in Cd. Juarez to obtain heroin and an estimated 60 safe houses now serve to accommodate people of higher incomes who want to maintain greater anonymity.

In June of 2017 a rift within Barrio Azteca led to a faction of that gang (la vieja guardia) switching sides and joining in with the Mexicles of the Sinaloa cartel.  The fallout from that rift caused a spike in homicides and a major romantic tragedy last August. (see entries on Aug. 4 and 7 here)

These two layers of violence--cartel violence and street-gang violence in the retail sales sector of Juarez--account for most the the homicides in our city to the South.

When one president replaces another in Mexico a period of instability within the drug cartel world ensues, as each president has a major say in the establishment of the rules of the game.  During the PRI dynasty, which lasted until 2000, the rules were simple.  Drug cartels operated as franchise operations handed out at the highest levels of government.  Since then many drug operators have calculated, correctly, that they will face few consequences for violating the turf rules imposed by a president.  The national government appears to have lost its capacity to regulate competition among wannabe drug lords.  It is still unclear how AMLO, who was sworn in last month as President, will deal with this issue.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

California Teacher's Strike
The Numbers:  How Does California Compare With New Mexico?

 Teachers are on strike in the second-largest school district in the nation, the LA Unified School District (LAUSD), asking for higher pay, smaller class sizes, more money for counselors, nurses, and librarians, and a reduction in the time-consuming testing that has so irritated teachers in New Mexico.

Demographically, the LAUSD is not very different from Gadsden Independent School District:  73% Latino, 32% English Language Learners.  Gadsden is 97% Hispanic with 37% English Language Learners.  The Las Cruces School District is 76% Hispanic.  I was unable to find the proportion of students in the LCPSD who are English Language Learners, but I would guess it to be between 23 and 29 percent.  The New Mexico total is about 15%.

Average Teacher Salary in the LA School District:  $75.000
Average Teacher Salary in Albuquerque:  about $53,000
Average Teacher Salary in Las Cruces:  about $50,000
Average Teacher Salary in Anthony NM:  About $49,000

Cost of Living Adjustment:  Someone earning $75000 in Los Angeles would have about the same purchasing power as someone in Las Cruces earning $47,000.  So Albuquerque teachers would be slightly better off in purchasing power than those in LA.

Performance:  
California school performance is similar to New Mexico.  California is tied with Alabama for 46th among states in 4rth grade math.  New Mexico ranks 49th tied with Nevada for 42 in 8th grade math; tied with North Carolina for 37 in 8th grade reading; tied with Arizona for 43 in 4rth grade reading. 

However:  Los Angeles School performance is lower than Albuquerque:

LA 4rth Grade Math Scores Vs. Albuquerque 4th Grade Math Scores:
Albuquerque  4th grade:  231 basic score (New Mexico=231)
Los Angeles   4th grade:  224 basic score (California-232)
Albuquerque 8th grade:   271 basic score (New Mexico =271)
Los Angeles 8th grade:    263 basic score (California=275)
Spending per pupil:  California spends $11495 per pupil, ranking 22 in the Nation.  New Mexico  spends $9693, ranking 37.  In real terms the two are probably about the same, probably a near wash when cost of living differences are factored in.  NY State spends twice as much as California per pupil.

It appears teachers in California want more resources for teaching:  more time with each student, professional health care, better library facilities, and more time for teachers to teach.  Plus a salary increase.  Given that the California school system student performance is almost as bad as NM, I would guess LA teachers argue they could raise student scores if they can concentrate more on doing their jobs in class without extraneous hassles of sick kids, inadequate tools, and more time.

Can you imagine teachers in Las Cruces actually going out on strike and arguing they cannot help pull NM out of 50th in education without better resources for their students?

Monday, January 14, 2019

Fixing an Expensive, Under-performing Education System in NM

As usual there is a flurry of discussion about fixing education as a new administration begins.  Some voices incorrectly equate spending with improvement.  Some want to do away with symbolic nuisances like the PARCC tests.  Some want to focus on a narrow sliver of the whole, such as early childhood education.  Eventually all the voices get converted into votes on real bills and we tend to prejudge future performance on what got passed and seldom check later to seeif things improve as promised.

Aware of public concern, the last three governors generated reassuring talking points about improving the poor quality of public education in New Mexico.  But they didn't do much about it.  Governor Johnson promoted taxpayer-funded school vouchers for private education and we ended up with a batch of charter schools.  Two decades later they perform no better, as a whole, than public schools.  Governor Richardson raised teacher salaries 50% and was named Education Governor of the Year by the NEA.  But when he left office student performance had not improved.  Governor Martinez withdrew the carrot Richardson offered in hiking teacher salaries--for the stick of shaming poorly performing schools by revealing their "grades."  Student performance did not improve.  New Mexico still competes with Mississippi and Alabama as the lowest performing school system in the country.   Performance in math and English rank NM at 48.  We are surrounded by states that outperform NM in schooling--Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas--in each of which dollar expenditures per pupil are significantly lower than ours.  Wanna check?  (1) Surrounding states score higher:  https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/profiles/stateprofile?chort=1&sub=MAT&sj=&sfj=NP&st=MN&year=2017R3   (2) Spending per student:  http://www.governing.com/gov-data/education-data/state-education-spending-per-pupil-data.html

We can improve schools.  Gadsden School District--low income parents, with 37% English Language Learners--moved within five years from the bottom of the 89 NM school districts up to the top third.  A new superintendent implemented a "no excuses" policy at all levels, and it worked.  Other districts improved, and other states have moved up the ranks.   If a governor were willing to keep track of progress and advocate "no excuses" she could make a difference.

Higher education is also overpriced and under-performing.  Washington Monthly, a respected magazine that ranks colleges, calculated in 2018 that out of 14 research institutions in the surrounding states (not counting UT Austin) UNM ranked only eighth in research dollars, and NMSU twelfth. Worse, in the category of "social mobility" (efforts to recruit and retain low-income populations) UNM ranked eleventh and NMSU thirteenth.  UTEP ranks fifth.  NMSU's math and engineering departments used to rank regularly in the top thirty, nationwide.  Today they have slipped out of sight in national rankings. At UNM Archaeology and Latin American Studies were in the top ten.  No more.  Money?  In sheer dollars per full time student (FTE) NM ranks a robust ninth among states.  In each of the surrounding states higher education spending per FTE is significantly lower than in New Mexico.  Arizona and Colorado, with better universities, spend one-third and one half, respectively, of what New Mexico spends per FTE!
(1)  Washington Monthly Rankings: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018college-guide?ranking=2018-rankings-national-universities.
(2)  https://nsf.gov/statistics/state-indicators/indicator/state-support-for-higher-education-per-fte-student

As Secretary of Higher Education during Governor Martinez' first term I worked with college presidents to create a new funding formula that would reward graduating more students, more STEM degrees, and more low-income students.  We were grossly overproducing criminal justice majors, social workers, and teachers while grossly under-producing graduates in STEM-related fields.  Hispanics and Natives were lagging.  They comprise 60% of our population so we can't afford not to do a better job if we want a trained workforce.  The legislature, however, responding to vested interests, funded the formula only at 3%.  The rest of the higher education budget was simply doled out proportionately to each institution's appropriation the year before.  Five years later, in 2018 formula funding was up to 4%--not nearly enough to change the behavior of managers, a fact consistent with falling rankings.  And with independent boards governing each institution, no system exists to promote statewide goals.  All too often regents with arbitrary agendas bicker endlessly on minor issues, seldom challenging top management priorities.  A statewide board, setting statewide goals, would help.  Politically difficult?  Yes, pero si se puede.

In 1960 New Mexico ranked 17th among states in the proportion of residents with a high school degree.  By 2015 it had dropped to 44.  In 1990 New Mexico ranked 22 in the proportion of residents with at least a Bachelor's degree.  In 2010 it ranked 37, and in 2015 it ranked 42.  UNM was once competitive in research with Arizona State, Utah, Texas A&M, and Colorado State:  no more, and UTEP is catching up fast.  While there are pockets of excellence here and there, the overall story is one of decline.  Some students are already voting with their feet.
 (1) High School:  for 1990-2000-2010 see http://proximityone.com/edattain.htm; for 2015 see NCHEMS, http://www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/?level=nation&mode=graph&state=0&submeasure=237.  
(2)  Bacchelor's Degree or Above:  for 1990-2000-2010 see :  http//proximityone.com/edattain.htm

Over 60% of our state tax dollars go to education.  Citizens, media, and legislators need urgently to place comprehensive education reform high on the agenda for incoming Governor Lujan Grisham.  Given the power of vested interests, improving education will require strong advocates, not just reassuring sound bites.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Mexico is Going to Build a Ladder:  A Beautiful Ladder 
And the Gringos are Going to Pay for It

Rumor has it newly-elected Mexican President Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is negotiating an unprecedented deal between (a) drug cartel lords, (b) US businesses in the roofing, hotel, construction, and meatpacking industries, and (c) several organizations representing millions of drug-addicted Americans, to cooperate in the building of a giant ladder, expandable through the wonders of technology to the highest heights, so that business can continue normally in spite of the presence of a Trump wall between the US and Mexico.

Insiders who insist on anonymity say the deal consists of the following elements:

1.  Mexican experts calculate the project will cost about $5 billion.  Corporate America, particularly those operating in the Phoenix-Las Vegas corridor, are said to be taking up collections for the Ladder so they can continue to Make America Great Again with low wages and a motivated workforce.  An anonymous source said pledges are already nearing the $3 Billion level after only three weeks of effort since the Trump Government Shutdown began.  The pledge drive is said to be spearheaded by corporate executives at Tysons Chickens and is especially popular in the Phoenix area.

2.  President Lopez Obrador expects that the Ladder of Gringo Greatness (LOGG) will face significant pushback from the Trump Base, except for those among his followers who rely on deliveries of Mexican drugs.  In order to lessen this potential pushback, AMLO is said to be in negotiations with the most reliable drug cartel lords in Mexico to agree to a shutdown in the delivery of drugs to America.  No more just-in-time deliveries through the normal ports of entry and tunnels.  He believes this will create a health crisis in the US, as addicts seek medical attention for withdrawal symptoms, puting pressure on the Trump-weakened health care system--enough, he believes, to influence the votes of the most obsequious Trump supporters in Congress.

3.  It is believed that the major organizations representing addicted Americans are so concerned about a possible shutdown in shipments that they will join in with corporate America to help fund the campaign with millions of small donations.

A female hotel chambermaid, "Fantasia," contacted by a Fake News network, said of the rumored project:  "Everyone wins.  Trump can have his wall.  The government can reopen again, Corporate America can still have cheap labor, commerce will flourish, and Mexicans can still get the jobs."