Monday, February 25, 2019

Morena Leader in Mexican Chamber of Deputies Predicts National Guard Approval This Week
Three More Homicides in Juárez on Sunday

Mario Delgado, Leader of the Morena Party (AMLO's party), the largest party represented in the Chamber of Deputies, predicts a vote this week will make no changes to the President's proposal to create a National Guard, and it will pass, sending the bill to the state legislatures for approval.  Since the proposal requires a constitutional change it must be passed by at least 16 states.

This feels a lot like the politics of security in the US after 911, when Congress gave President George W. Bush what amounted to a blank check to deal with the attack on the Twin Towers.  Nearly two decades later many in the US feel the actions taken were not well thought out and resulted in an unprecedented (and often abused) appropriation of executive power in national security affairs. 

Basically the same situation exists in Mexico today:  law and order has been breaking down in many states.  People are hungry for effective action after many failed attempts, and the largely compliant legislature is not in a mood to quibble about details.  Opposition leaders in the legislature, and governors, who might question some of the details are undoubtedly telling themselves that AMLO will own security in Mexico after this and if it doesn't work (and there are reasons to believe it will not) it will simply be easier six years from now to elect a President in one of the traditional political parties whose corruption and ineffectiveness contributed heavily to the election of a socialist as President.

Creating a National Guard is a major move, and probably deserves a lot more attention to detail than it will receive. 

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