Brace yourself, Juaritos, the New Plan Against Violence is Unveiled
The AMLO Plan Comes to Town
Here's what it looks like:
Cells: eight "cells" have been created to patrol the most dangerous areas of the city: the Southern part of the city, the South Valley, and the downtown area. There will also be "filters," (apparently the new word for "checkpoints") in other areas of the city, including inspection of cars. In addition, an intelligence unit has been put together by the National Defense Department and the Federal Police, to "prioritize objectives."
Patrols: 200 federal police and 400 military troops will begin patrolling today, with the assistance of local and state police, according to a statement by Mayor Cabada. These patrols have as their main objective to deter the commission of crimes. We shall see.
Didn't We Go Through This Before? The last time the military was sent in to solve the problem of violence in Juarez was ten years ago (covered in this blog, see Archives), in 2008-9, when7500 troops and 2500 federal police replaced local top municipal police commanders, presumably because they were likely to be either incompetent or corrupt.
At first crime went down, but then several things happened: first, the bad guys began to realize the military patrols were predictable, designed to reassure the public rather than to really deter crime. There was no intelligence analysis behind them. Criminals simply timed their activities to take place in between patrol movements. The result was an explosion of extortion and kidnapping as ordinary criminals began to realize law enforcement anarchy reigned in Juarez. Even the taco stands on wheels were being hit up by extortioners demanding $100 per week for "protection," on the credible pain of death. I remember one case of a man escaping his kidnappers by jumping out of a two-story building, injuring his leg. His wife had received his severed thumb in an envelope, along with a price to be paid for his release.
Second, when the military began shooting teenagers for working in chop shops that put false containers in automobiles, the parents began to raise hell. Third, when it turned out the feds could be corrupted, people concluded the intent of the exercise was not to stop drug trafficking, or even crime. Fourth, rogue units of the armed forces began to extort civilians--just like the bad guys--human rights abuse from soldiers was widespread, including harassment of women, and the calls for the feds to withdraw grew loud indeed. In any event, the stats speak for themselves: homicides in Juárez went up in Juarez from 320 in 2007 to 1623 in 2008, to 2657 in 2009 and 3115 in 2010. So much for the efficacy of military patrols.
Where Are We? From today on, AMLO owns the situation of law enforcement in Juárez. A significant amount of his reputation as President will depend on how well he handles the current spike in the homicide and crime rate in what was in 2009 and 2010 the most violent city in the world.
At first crime went down, but then several things happened: first, the bad guys began to realize the military patrols were predictable, designed to reassure the public rather than to really deter crime. There was no intelligence analysis behind them. Criminals simply timed their activities to take place in between patrol movements. The result was an explosion of extortion and kidnapping as ordinary criminals began to realize law enforcement anarchy reigned in Juarez. Even the taco stands on wheels were being hit up by extortioners demanding $100 per week for "protection," on the credible pain of death. I remember one case of a man escaping his kidnappers by jumping out of a two-story building, injuring his leg. His wife had received his severed thumb in an envelope, along with a price to be paid for his release.
Second, when the military began shooting teenagers for working in chop shops that put false containers in automobiles, the parents began to raise hell. Third, when it turned out the feds could be corrupted, people concluded the intent of the exercise was not to stop drug trafficking, or even crime. Fourth, rogue units of the armed forces began to extort civilians--just like the bad guys--human rights abuse from soldiers was widespread, including harassment of women, and the calls for the feds to withdraw grew loud indeed. In any event, the stats speak for themselves: homicides in Juárez went up in Juarez from 320 in 2007 to 1623 in 2008, to 2657 in 2009 and 3115 in 2010. So much for the efficacy of military patrols.
Where Are We? From today on, AMLO owns the situation of law enforcement in Juárez. A significant amount of his reputation as President will depend on how well he handles the current spike in the homicide and crime rate in what was in 2009 and 2010 the most violent city in the world.
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