Friday, April 17, 2020

US-Mexico Border Update for Paso del Norte Region
Native Americans Hardest Hit in New Mexico

                         Pop          Cases       Tests        Deaths
New Mexico     2.1m        1,597        34,488        44
DAC                   218k          58           2,653           1
Texas                27.4m      17,371    169,536*     398
El Paso Cty         840k           451        1,499**       7
Chihuahua         3.6m            128           605***   24
Cd. Juarez         1.3m              88          N/A         22

New Mexico Covid-19 Cases by Ethnicity:  Native Americans:  37%; Hispano:  24.5%; Anglo:  21.4%

*includes extensive testing by private labs
**Through April 8
***Implied in data provided; probably does not include private testing

Making Sense Out of the Data:

1.  New Mexico is still way out in front of Texas in testing, although Texas is catching up, using mainly private labs.  On April 3 NM was testing 3.5 times more people per capita than Texas, but now the gap has shrunk to 2.6 times.  
2.  Testing in Chihuahua and Juarez lags far behind NM and Tx,   With data showing only about 605 tests in Chihuahua, it is far from clear that the 128 cases in Chihuahua is an accurate picture of what is happening there.  Surely Juarez and Chihuahua state have far more cases than those being reported.
3.  The lag in testing between NM and Texas shows up dramatically in the data coming from El Paso County and Dona Ana County.  The data on testing  from El Paso is a week behind (April 8) New Mexico's,  but as of then Dona Ana County was testing 9 times more persons per capita than El Paso County.  This suggests that the 451 reported cases in El Paso may be lower than the actual number.
4.  Dona Ana County has not been tested as thoroughly as New Mexico, but appears to be catching up.  Statewide 1.64% of all persons have been tested, in Dona Ana the corresponding number is 1.2%.
5.  Native Americans in New Mexico form only about 11% of the population, but have 37% of the cases, so far.  It may be that Native Americans, especially in the Northwest, have peaked early in infection rates, and may not in the end provide 37% of the total number of victims statewide.  Expect the ethnic distribution of cases to change as the virus spreads to other parts of the state.

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