Juárez:  The Homicide Toll Continues

Diario reports this morning that Juárez has registered 226 homicides so far this year, on track with last year, which registered about 1500 murders.  Albuquerque, with a population less than half the size of Juárez, registered 82 homicides in all of 2019.

Two persons were executed yesterday, (Thursday), one wrapped in blankets ("encobijado"), another was found next to a truck in front of a house.

Mexico Adopts World Health Organization Recommendations for Dealing With Coronavirus

Reforma reports Under Secretary of Health Hugo López-Gatell announced this morning Mexico is adopting a model for mitigation of the coronavirus threat, recommended by the World Health Organization.

Among the measures to mitigate the spread of the disease is for people to avoid handshakes and kisses, and to wash hands constantly.  Should the contavirus threat become an epidemic, authorities will consider cancellation of mass events where active transmission of the disease might take place.

In an extreme scenario, if there is negligence in the measures proposed in the mitigation model and a full-scale epidemidemic breaks out, there might be an estimated 8 to 10 million Mexicans showing symptoms of the disease, and of these, 500,000 might be serious cases.  Should this extreme scenario take place, which might occur two or three months from the first cases in the country, the health care sector might require an additional 20 million pesos (about $1 million U.S.) to deal with the emergency.

Update:  President Lopez Obrador Seeks to Calm Fears of Coronavirus

Milenio reports that President López Obrador this morning assured the nation that his government is preparing to deal with coronavirus and has all of the resources necessary to deal with this health emergency.

"We are prepared to deal with coronavirus.  We have the doctors, specialists, hospitals, and capacity to confront it.  As it develops, we will deal with those who have it."  He asked the relevant authorities to maintain a daily flow of information as things develop.  He also asked citizens to remain calm so as not to generate a "collective psychology of fear."  "I want precise information about the gravity of coronavirus, because it is not, according to available information, something terrible, fatal.  It is not even as bad as influenza.  All of us should know this information," he said.

El presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador aseguró que su gobierno está preparado para enfrentar el coronavirus Covid-19, pues cuentan con todos los recursos necesarios para atender la emergencia de salud. "Estamos preparados para enfrentar el coronavirus. Tenemos los médicos, especialistas, hospitales y la capacidad para hacerle frente a este caso. En la medida en que se vaya desarrollando vamos a atender los casos", declaró el Presidente en su conferencia matutina. https://www.milenio.com/politica/coronavirus-en-mexico-amlo-tenemos-capacidad-para-enfrentarlo

López https://www.milenio.com/politica/coronavirus-en-mexico-amlo-tenemos-capacidad-para-enfrentarlo

López https://www.milenio.com/politica/coronavirus-en-mexico-amlo-tenemos-capacidad-para-enfrentarlo

López https://www.milenio.com/politica/coronavirus-en-mexico-amlo-tenemos-capacidad-para-enfrentar

UPDATE:  First Coronavirus Victim in Mexico Confirmed

Another Has Tested Positive and Awaits a Second Test

Reforma reports this morning a thirty five year old man who traveled to Bergamo, Italy, has tested positive in what is apparently a two-stage testing protocol for coronavirus in Mexico.  He and his immediate family members who had first contact with him after he returned are being isolated in the National Institute for Respiratory Illnesses in Mexico City.  Another man in Sinaloa has tested positive in his first test for the virus, and will receive his second test today.  He is being isolated in a hotel.  Two other persons in Mexico have been isolated on suspicion of carrying the virus.

Mexico Under Secretary of Health Warns About Possible Epidemic

Reforma reports that Hugo López-Gatell, Under Secretary of Health in Mexico, this morning outlined three possible phases in the spread of coronavirus after its first appearance in Mexico (confirmed this morning).

In the first phase, the transmission of the virus will be limited to "closed circles," such as families and friends, with small-scale outbreaks.  After about 40 days one might see sustained community contagions of the disease, affecting larger groups within the population, and spreading in different parts of the county.  There is a possibility of an even more generalized spread of the disease about 50-60 days after the first cases are reported.

Original text in Spanish, according to Reforma:

"Cuando llegue el virus, la transmisión será focalizada porque ocurrirá en círculos cerrados como familias o amistades, con pequeños brotes; en un lapso de 40 días podrían presentarse contagios comunitarios sostenidos que afecten a mayores grupos de personas y simultáneamente en distintos puntos del País. La posibilidad de una propagación generalizada podría darse en 50 o 60 días después de la presentación de los primeros casos."

Mexico:  Coronavirus

Diario this morning carries a report from the newspaper Reforma, in Mexico City, about some of the fallout from coronavirus.  In Sonora (a state neighboring New Mexico and Arizona), for example, "production lines in auto parts, aerospace, and manufacture of health equipment have been interrupted," according to Gerardo Vázquez, president of Index Sonora, a maquila association.

The value of the Mexican Peso has fallen nearly 5% during the last 6 business days, apparently due to uncertainty about the fallout from the coronavirus situation, according to La Jornada de Mexico.  It now stands at around 19.44 pesos to the dollar, a decline in value not seen in about three months.

President Lopez Obrador this morning in a press conference covered by Reforma, asked Mexicans not to exaggerate the dangers of coronavirus so as not to generate panic, and he assured the nation that the government is prepared to take the necessary steps should coronavirus reach Mexico.  Thus far there are no reported cases, although one case (19 potential cases have already been ruled negative for the virus) has not yet been determined.. 

Diario carries a story from Reforma this morning that a large cruise ship carrying 6000 passengers was allowed permission to dock at the Island of Cozumel, near Cancun, as initially programmed, but only after confirmation that a passenger suffering from flu-like symptoms was tested and found not to be carrying the coronavirus.  The ship had been denied docking privileges in Jamaica and Caiman Island, and the initial decision, later reversed by port authorities in Cozumel, was to deny access to the dock.

An international risk management firm, Fitch Ratings, suggests Mexico's exports of oil and autoparts will be affected by the coronavirus situation, according to a report this morning in La Jornada.  China, it seems, accounts for 30% of global new automobile sales, and the coronavirus epidemic in China is likely to result in a decline in future auto sales and to experience interruptions in global chains of supply of auto components to China.

Mexico:  Coronavirus

Yesterday in a press conference in Mexico City Hugo Lopez-Gatell, Sub-secretary of Health, reassured the nation that there are as yet no confirmed cases of coronavirus in Mexico.  Eighteen persons with suspicious symptoms have been tested and all have been found without the disease.  He asserted that a number of protocols have been put into place to prevent the spread of the virus, including protocols in all of the major airports of the country.  Brazil, meanwhile, has just confirmed one case of coronavirus in that country, contracted by a Brazilian who returned from a visit to Italy.  Until the confirmed case in Brazil, Latin America had been spared of the disease, which has spread largely in the Northern hemisphere.

Juárez:  Coronavirus and the Maquila Industry

Diario de Juárez reports this morning that three maquila plants, and possibly two more, have admitted they may face delays in their production schedules because of delays in their supply chains stemming from the coronavirus crisis in China.  Pedro Chavira, president of the major maquila association (Index) in Cd. Juárez is quoted in the report as saying that the affected maquila plants have begun to seek new providers to avoid delays in their supply chains.  This will not be easy since managers have only a short time frame to find new providers before having to cut production schedules.  Local suppliers will have trouble replacing these supplies since some materials face protective ("amparados") measures in China and "it is difficult to find new suppliers in just two or three weeks."  Most of the affected companies produce electric and electronic products.

Diario notes that of the 326 maquila plants in Juárez, 29% produce electronic products such as televisions, refrigerators, computers, and cell phones.

Note:  Maquila plants in Juárez often require strict adherence to "just in time" production schedules to get their products on the road.  Student groups I took to tour maquilas in Juárez a few years ago were always impressed with the sometimes minute-by-minute precision in the scheduling links between the production line, packaging, and the loading of the trucks to cross the border into the US, just a mile or two down the road.  At that time US federal authorities were cooperating with the maquila industry to permit inspections at the plant, followed by sealing the truck doors, instead of requiring inspection at the border crossing itself.  We characterized these and other measures as "redefining the geographic boundary lines and definitions of the border."

Three More Executions In Juarez Yesterday

Diario de Juárez reports this morning a man was found dead (LPNM correction at 1:50 pm:  wounded, not dead) with a gunshot through an eye, lesions on his body, and his hands severed.  A cardboard sign was nearby warning those who steal cars, auto parts, and those who buy those vehicles. An agent of the municipal police explained the sign was signed by a "criminal group" ("grupo delictivo") that operates in the city.  Two other men were executed in different parts of the city.  Update:  the man, still alive, was taken to a hospital  Diario update at 12:40 pm:  The severed hand of the wounded man were discovered just before noon in the colonia Margarita; he was found earlier in the morning in the colonia Partido Romero, an adjacent neighborhood.

Diario de Juárez Reports Nearly Two Days Without a Homicide
How do Juarez Murders Stack up to Tijuana, El Paso, Albuquerque? 
Cd. Juarez in Comparative Perspective

Diario this morning reports that after a bloody weekend in which machine gun attacks were carried out against the State Security Commission and the municipal police, no homicides have been reported in Juárez for the past 40 hours.  Last year there were only 7 days in the city without a homicide, and a total homicide count of about 1500.  Netnoticias.mx reported on February 17 that 65 homicides had taken place in Juárez so far in February and Diario earlier reported 104 homicides as of January 30 of this year. This puts Juárez on a similar path for homicides experienced in the past two years.

**According to a report by a Citizen's Council for Security, Justice, and Peace (Mexico City?), Mexico in 2018 had a homicide rate per 100,000 population of 24.8, compared to the US rate of 5.0 that same year
**Cd. Juarez, according to the same report, had a homicide rate of 85.56 per 100,000 population. Tijuana that same year was classified by the report as the most violent city in the world, with a homicide rate of 138.26.
**El Paso in 2018 had a homicide rate of 3.34 per 100,000 (see here for source), among the lowest murder rates of any city in the US with a population over 250,000.
**Albuquerque in 2018 had a homicide rate of 12.32 per 100,000, far lower than the Big Three--St. Louis (61), Baltimore (51), Detroit (39)--and lower than Oakland, Tulsa, Toledo, or Nashville and others.

Albuquerque registered 82 homicides in 2019, in a city slightly less than half the size of Juárez, where the body count was 1500.  While the 82 homicides represented a record number for the Duke City, on a per-hundred thousand population basis, according to a report compiled by KOAT TV, this represents only a slight uptick in the trend line.  The report suggests that in 1996, Albuquerque, with a smaller population, had 69 homicides, a rate of 16 per 100,000 population, while the 82 last year represents only a rate of 15 per 100,000.  A chart accompanying the report shows the per capita rate year-by-year since 1990, varying from a low of 5 per 100,000 (in 2014) to 16 per 100,000.

Chihuahua and Cd. Juárez:  Violence is Still Bad

Note:  it has been nearly a year since my last blog entry.  When you are 75 years old your time horizon of active life is quite likely to be in the mid-single digits, so you begin to be picky about your use of time.  I am, as advertised, still working on problems of governance in New Mexico at the moment trying to figure out just what the relationship was between Native Pueblo people and Spanish-speaking colonists in Northern New Mexico during the 18th century.  Unwrapping this, perhaps, may be relevant to certain problems of governance in New Mexico today.  Fortunately, a talented group of archaeologists and historians are working on similar problems, so I have a hefty reading list adding up.  I'm also trying to figure out some of the dynamics of growth and politics in various regions of New Mexico during the twentieth century.  Finally, as in many traditions ranging from Zen in Kyoto to Wittgenstein in European Philosophy to Kobe Bryant in basketball, I believe living in the moment is a critical element in happiness, and I find this is easy to achieve surrounded by pine trees and the company of my neighbor and friends Jerónimo and Eutimia, somewhere in Mora County.  All of this is a long-winded way of saying, I'm not sure what the future of La Politica New Mexico might be, and this is not for lack of serious thinking about it over the past year.

Update on Violence in Chihuahua and Juárez.

2019 was another bad year for violence in our neighboring state of Chihuahua.  Diario de Juárez (Jan. 1 2020) reports 2562 homicides throughout the state, of which 1499 occurred in Juárez.  For both the state and Juárez this is the worst year since 2011.  Juárez registered 1247 in 2018 and only 772 in 2017, according to the report, and Chihuahua registered only 2244 in 2018 and 2012 in 2017.

As reported here in a previous blog, in January of 2019 President Lopez Obrador created a National Guard as one means, he hoped, of stemming the mounting violence in most parts of the country.  On various occasions during 2019 the federal government announced efforts to achieve greater coordination among the various security institutions.