UPDATE:  First Coronavirus Victim in Mexico Confirmed

Another Has Tested Positive and Awaits a Second Test

Reforma reports this morning a thirty five year old man who traveled to Bergamo, Italy, has tested positive in what is apparently a two-stage testing protocol for coronavirus in Mexico.  He and his immediate family members who had first contact with him after he returned are being isolated in the National Institute for Respiratory Illnesses in Mexico City.  Another man in Sinaloa has tested positive in his first test for the virus, and will receive his second test today.  He is being isolated in a hotel.  Two other persons in Mexico have been isolated on suspicion of carrying the virus.

Mexico Under Secretary of Health Warns About Possible Epidemic

Reforma reports that Hugo López-Gatell, Under Secretary of Health in Mexico, this morning outlined three possible phases in the spread of coronavirus after its first appearance in Mexico (confirmed this morning).

In the first phase, the transmission of the virus will be limited to "closed circles," such as families and friends, with small-scale outbreaks.  After about 40 days one might see sustained community contagions of the disease, affecting larger groups within the population, and spreading in different parts of the county.  There is a possibility of an even more generalized spread of the disease about 50-60 days after the first cases are reported.

Original text in Spanish, according to Reforma:

"Cuando llegue el virus, la transmisión será focalizada porque ocurrirá en círculos cerrados como familias o amistades, con pequeños brotes; en un lapso de 40 días podrían presentarse contagios comunitarios sostenidos que afecten a mayores grupos de personas y simultáneamente en distintos puntos del País. La posibilidad de una propagación generalizada podría darse en 50 o 60 días después de la presentación de los primeros casos."