The Generic Congressional Poll Widens:
FairVote House Model Now Predicts the House Will Flip
FairVote House Model Now Predicts the House Will Flip
Fivethirtyeight's generic congressional poll (click here) has widened, now showing a 9.15 point lead for Democrats. If applied to the FairVote.org House model (click here), (which relies on measures of how safe a House seat is, rather than on polling) and if the gap remains the same until elections are over, the House is likely to flip by a margin of five votes (220-215). Until today the margins showed Republicans retaining control of the House.
Fivethirtyeight's House "deluxe" model (click here) this morning, (based on polling and the views of local experts) shows Democrats with a 70% chance of flipping the House. This model has been consistently in that neighborhood since it was put up a couple of weeks ago.
Note: these numbers change daily. So if you click on the model you might get different numbers.
Why Has the Generic Congressional Ballot Widened Recently?
Part 1: The generic congressional ballot pretty much mirrors the presidential approval ratings, at least in the past few months. When Trump does something to alienate a significant part of his famous "base" (such as pouting instead of praising a fallen war hero like John McCain), his approval rating goes down. On the other hand, when he insults Mexico or Nancy Pelosi, or makes another racist comment, it "fires up the base" and his approval ratings go up. As these swings occur, they are mirrored, after a brief time lag, in the generic congressional ballot. The childish snub of McCain, which bothered even evangelical Trump sycophants who equate patriotism with flag-waving, appears to have affected the generic congressional ballot.
If part 1 were the only part of the story I would predict Trump would simply remind his base (we've seen this movie before) through a new wave of insults against Mexicans and blacks, breathlessly covered 24/7 by TV media (the owners of whom have been lavished with huge tax cuts and, I suspect greater barriers to market competition) that he is, indeed, racist, sexist, and vulgar--which is precisely what his base loves about him--while at the same time promising more corporate deregulation and even greater permissiveness to monopolize more markets with the help of an even more fanatical Supreme Court. If that was all there was, I would predict the strategy would work and House would remain an instrument of Trump's increasingly tyrannical rule, at least for the next two years.
Part 2: But there is more than the McCain snub. In the past few weeks evidence is piling up the president is crooked. Payoffs to porn stars and others; mischief between Trump campaign higherups and Russian oligarchs while our elections are being rigged in Trump's favor; using the presidency with a wink and a nod to make money for Trump properties, in open violation of the Emoluments clause of the Constitution (strict constructionism, anyone? Isn't that what conservatives want?); the refusal to cough up tax returns. The Manafort guilty verdict and the confession of Cohen brought Trump's essential crookedness into focus.
All of this adds up to a serious question about the rock-bottom legitimacy--not the legality--of the Trump presidency and, given the behavior of Congress, our system of governance as a whole. Many uncomfortable questions arise here. Given the internet lies paid for by Russian operatives, and read by hundreds of thousands of unsuspecting voters, and given the closeness of the elections in which Hillary won the popular vote by three million votes, can we assert with a straight face that our elections were legitimate; that is, fair and honest, reflecting the will of the American people? When a president insults a true American hero like McCain, while openly talking about pardoning a criminal like Manafort; when this same president, given all we know, licked Putin's boots in front of the world, at what point can we say with fairness he has abandoned his right to rule? When the president threatens to shut down the rule of law in his own Attorney General's office are these the legitimate (again, this is different from legal) actions of a president? Are these questions not touching truths that run deeper than mere partisan opinion?
The walls closing in on Trump are not just legal. It is every day more difficult to sustain the concept that his presidency is legitimate. And as his legitimacy as President comes into question, the specific findings of the Mueller investigation, which focuses only on legal issues, not legitimacy, become less and less crucial: We already know enough. The president lost his right to speak on my behalf by his behavior, out in the open. And, by the way, when a handful of partisan bosses in Congress violate their constitutional duty to create effective checks and balances in power, aren't we entitled to take action, stop the mischief and demand a return to constitutional rule? We know the television media and Congress will refuse to raise these questions. Do we have the courage to pose them out loud as we talk to friends about this election season?
One final point: the real reason Democratic leaders have been so slow to challenge Trump at this gut level, is that they don't want to go there, even though they dearly hope to put an end to Trumpism. The system is rigged, and Democrats, knowing all too well they are part of the swamp, want you to do away with Trumpism, without questioning legitimacy of the current system itself. This is the unspoken secret of American politics today: Trump became president in great part because the system is rigged and most Americans in both parties wanted to fix it. We deserve far more than we got, and we have a chance to start fixing it ourselves this fall.
Fivethirtyeight's House "deluxe" model (click here) this morning, (based on polling and the views of local experts) shows Democrats with a 70% chance of flipping the House. This model has been consistently in that neighborhood since it was put up a couple of weeks ago.
Note: these numbers change daily. So if you click on the model you might get different numbers.
Why Has the Generic Congressional Ballot Widened Recently?
Part 1: The generic congressional ballot pretty much mirrors the presidential approval ratings, at least in the past few months. When Trump does something to alienate a significant part of his famous "base" (such as pouting instead of praising a fallen war hero like John McCain), his approval rating goes down. On the other hand, when he insults Mexico or Nancy Pelosi, or makes another racist comment, it "fires up the base" and his approval ratings go up. As these swings occur, they are mirrored, after a brief time lag, in the generic congressional ballot. The childish snub of McCain, which bothered even evangelical Trump sycophants who equate patriotism with flag-waving, appears to have affected the generic congressional ballot.
If part 1 were the only part of the story I would predict Trump would simply remind his base (we've seen this movie before) through a new wave of insults against Mexicans and blacks, breathlessly covered 24/7 by TV media (the owners of whom have been lavished with huge tax cuts and, I suspect greater barriers to market competition) that he is, indeed, racist, sexist, and vulgar--which is precisely what his base loves about him--while at the same time promising more corporate deregulation and even greater permissiveness to monopolize more markets with the help of an even more fanatical Supreme Court. If that was all there was, I would predict the strategy would work and House would remain an instrument of Trump's increasingly tyrannical rule, at least for the next two years.
Part 2: But there is more than the McCain snub. In the past few weeks evidence is piling up the president is crooked. Payoffs to porn stars and others; mischief between Trump campaign higherups and Russian oligarchs while our elections are being rigged in Trump's favor; using the presidency with a wink and a nod to make money for Trump properties, in open violation of the Emoluments clause of the Constitution (strict constructionism, anyone? Isn't that what conservatives want?); the refusal to cough up tax returns. The Manafort guilty verdict and the confession of Cohen brought Trump's essential crookedness into focus.
All of this adds up to a serious question about the rock-bottom legitimacy--not the legality--of the Trump presidency and, given the behavior of Congress, our system of governance as a whole. Many uncomfortable questions arise here. Given the internet lies paid for by Russian operatives, and read by hundreds of thousands of unsuspecting voters, and given the closeness of the elections in which Hillary won the popular vote by three million votes, can we assert with a straight face that our elections were legitimate; that is, fair and honest, reflecting the will of the American people? When a president insults a true American hero like McCain, while openly talking about pardoning a criminal like Manafort; when this same president, given all we know, licked Putin's boots in front of the world, at what point can we say with fairness he has abandoned his right to rule? When the president threatens to shut down the rule of law in his own Attorney General's office are these the legitimate (again, this is different from legal) actions of a president? Are these questions not touching truths that run deeper than mere partisan opinion?
The walls closing in on Trump are not just legal. It is every day more difficult to sustain the concept that his presidency is legitimate. And as his legitimacy as President comes into question, the specific findings of the Mueller investigation, which focuses only on legal issues, not legitimacy, become less and less crucial: We already know enough. The president lost his right to speak on my behalf by his behavior, out in the open. And, by the way, when a handful of partisan bosses in Congress violate their constitutional duty to create effective checks and balances in power, aren't we entitled to take action, stop the mischief and demand a return to constitutional rule? We know the television media and Congress will refuse to raise these questions. Do we have the courage to pose them out loud as we talk to friends about this election season?
One final point: the real reason Democratic leaders have been so slow to challenge Trump at this gut level, is that they don't want to go there, even though they dearly hope to put an end to Trumpism. The system is rigged, and Democrats, knowing all too well they are part of the swamp, want you to do away with Trumpism, without questioning legitimacy of the current system itself. This is the unspoken secret of American politics today: Trump became president in great part because the system is rigged and most Americans in both parties wanted to fix it. We deserve far more than we got, and we have a chance to start fixing it ourselves this fall.
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