Two Paths for Xochitl:
Wanna Help Flip the House? Read On
Xochi is predicted in the Fairvote.org model to lose her race by 2.8%, if
the generic ballot holds at a
6.6% margin in favor of Democrats, pretty much where we are today (see story below)
Accepting this model (and I believe it is a good a prediction as you can get this far out) Xochi has two paths to victory:
Path One: Only if the generic ballot goes up to 55.6% in favor of Democrats--an eleven point lead--nationwide, is Xochi likely to win the race, and then just barely, given the voting record of CD2. Eleven points is a stretch because the generic ballot has been hovering only between 3 and 8 points in the Dems favor for the past couple of months. The last time the generic ballot favored Dems by 11 points was on January 14. Fox News and Rudy Giuliani have told Republican viewers not to waver, regardless of the ugliness of ugly facts, and at least for the moment Republicans nationwide appear to be obedient. Bottom Line: the implications for strategy in these numbers is that if Xochi runs a "nationalized," campaign, asking voters to send her to Congress as a counterpoint to Trump, she is likely, unless public opinion shifts, to lose by about 3 points, close, but no cigar. Path One is a long shot.
Creating Path Two:
This is an open race, against a relatively unknown Republican opponent, who does not appear to have a lot of charismatic appeal. The last time these three factors coincided in CD2 was in 2008, when Harry Teague, a Democrat, won the seat for one term. That was, of course, a Presidential year, when turnout margins were favorable for Democrats, and when a popular incumbent president got reelected. Without those tailwinds, Harry would not have won.
This year Dems will not have a presidential tailwind, and normally in an off-year turnout rates favor Republicans. But this is not a normal year. Republican congressional candidates are everywhere fearful of a tail drag because of the overall unpopularity of the President. The latest numbers show Trump with a 41.5% approval rating (it was 39% in January), nationwide, (I suspect it is higher in CD2), and there is widespread speculation Dem turnout, given the intensity of feelings against Trump, will be higher than normal. These factors are going to help Xochi, but (see above) they aren't enough by themselves to produce a win.
So if nationalizing her campaign is not a wise strategy, what might be a better one?
Path 2:
Let's start by reviewing how Harry Teague won in 2008
As someone who worked on the margins of his campaign I can attest that Harry had not one charismatic bone in his body. Nor did Harry have a coherent message. He won that seat because hundreds of Democrats called their friends and neighbors and got out the vote, giving him a special plug. The presidential coattails was critical, but there was also a of of grassroots work behind the scenes. In this county, at least, Harry's campaign manager, Frank Constanza, consulted with local folks with strong community ties. Activists like Arturo Uribe put together a ground game specifically for him in the DAC South Valley. Doña Ana County provided one third of the total number of votes Teague got that year, and 57% of the surplus votes he won. For a candidate with a Texas accent and a public persona so hidden it was never seen, coming into a county that at that time was 67% Hispanic (today it is 70%), this was no small achievement.
Each election is different. If the numbers don't on the surface look as good for Xochi as they did for Teague, it is also true that Xochi is a far better candidate than Harry, more dynamic, articulate, so she can build on that. Based on what I observed ten years ago I would suggest the following.
1. Localize the race in the big counties. This means collecting serious information about what might motivate likely voters, and acting on that information. For various reasons, (some of them specific to the dynamics of this year's election) it is especially important to motivate Hispanic voters in CD2. But after the colossal disappointment in the name Martinez, who doesn't speak Spanish, Hispanic voters will need more than the name Torres and a phone call on election day to motivate them. It might help for Xochi personally to consult, openly or in private, with local leaders to plumb their thoughts.
2. Motivate voters by being a better candidate. This is Xochi's strong suit, but she needs to demonstrate she deserves the job more than Yvette by showing up everywhere and proving it over and over to skeptical audiences who will be turned off with perfunctory talking points that could be given in any of 435 congressional districts.
3. Build an early, Xochi-specific ground game in the big counties. This is particularly important in heavily Hispanic precincts.
Accepting this model (and I believe it is a good a prediction as you can get this far out) Xochi has two paths to victory:
Path One: Only if the generic ballot goes up to 55.6% in favor of Democrats--an eleven point lead--nationwide, is Xochi likely to win the race, and then just barely, given the voting record of CD2. Eleven points is a stretch because the generic ballot has been hovering only between 3 and 8 points in the Dems favor for the past couple of months. The last time the generic ballot favored Dems by 11 points was on January 14. Fox News and Rudy Giuliani have told Republican viewers not to waver, regardless of the ugliness of ugly facts, and at least for the moment Republicans nationwide appear to be obedient. Bottom Line: the implications for strategy in these numbers is that if Xochi runs a "nationalized," campaign, asking voters to send her to Congress as a counterpoint to Trump, she is likely, unless public opinion shifts, to lose by about 3 points, close, but no cigar. Path One is a long shot.
Creating Path Two:
This is an open race, against a relatively unknown Republican opponent, who does not appear to have a lot of charismatic appeal. The last time these three factors coincided in CD2 was in 2008, when Harry Teague, a Democrat, won the seat for one term. That was, of course, a Presidential year, when turnout margins were favorable for Democrats, and when a popular incumbent president got reelected. Without those tailwinds, Harry would not have won.
This year Dems will not have a presidential tailwind, and normally in an off-year turnout rates favor Republicans. But this is not a normal year. Republican congressional candidates are everywhere fearful of a tail drag because of the overall unpopularity of the President. The latest numbers show Trump with a 41.5% approval rating (it was 39% in January), nationwide, (I suspect it is higher in CD2), and there is widespread speculation Dem turnout, given the intensity of feelings against Trump, will be higher than normal. These factors are going to help Xochi, but (see above) they aren't enough by themselves to produce a win.
So if nationalizing her campaign is not a wise strategy, what might be a better one?
Path 2:
Let's start by reviewing how Harry Teague won in 2008
As someone who worked on the margins of his campaign I can attest that Harry had not one charismatic bone in his body. Nor did Harry have a coherent message. He won that seat because hundreds of Democrats called their friends and neighbors and got out the vote, giving him a special plug. The presidential coattails was critical, but there was also a of of grassroots work behind the scenes. In this county, at least, Harry's campaign manager, Frank Constanza, consulted with local folks with strong community ties. Activists like Arturo Uribe put together a ground game specifically for him in the DAC South Valley. Doña Ana County provided one third of the total number of votes Teague got that year, and 57% of the surplus votes he won. For a candidate with a Texas accent and a public persona so hidden it was never seen, coming into a county that at that time was 67% Hispanic (today it is 70%), this was no small achievement.
Each election is different. If the numbers don't on the surface look as good for Xochi as they did for Teague, it is also true that Xochi is a far better candidate than Harry, more dynamic, articulate, so she can build on that. Based on what I observed ten years ago I would suggest the following.
1. Localize the race in the big counties. This means collecting serious information about what might motivate likely voters, and acting on that information. For various reasons, (some of them specific to the dynamics of this year's election) it is especially important to motivate Hispanic voters in CD2. But after the colossal disappointment in the name Martinez, who doesn't speak Spanish, Hispanic voters will need more than the name Torres and a phone call on election day to motivate them. It might help for Xochi personally to consult, openly or in private, with local leaders to plumb their thoughts.
2. Motivate voters by being a better candidate. This is Xochi's strong suit, but she needs to demonstrate she deserves the job more than Yvette by showing up everywhere and proving it over and over to skeptical audiences who will be turned off with perfunctory talking points that could be given in any of 435 congressional districts.
3. Build an early, Xochi-specific ground game in the big counties. This is particularly important in heavily Hispanic precincts.
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