Will the House Flip?  Don't Bet On It!
August Polls Show Democratic Lead Shrinking

Fivethirtyeight Shows Dem Probabilities Above Water But Shrinking

Fairvote.org's Model Much Less Optimistic About a Flip

Nate Silber's (Fivethirtyeight) congressional electoral model--see below, August 17) for this year calculates the Democrats' probabilities of winning back the House are still strong, but shrinking based on the latest polls.  His prediction today, based on extensive polling data for each congressional district, lowers the chances of Dems taking the House from over 75% a few days ago to only 72,4% today.  Republican chances are correspondingly higher, moving from below 25% to 27.6%.  This is still a relatively strong margin, but if the current trend continues at this pace the projected lead could vanish to about 50-50 by October 1. Moreover, Silber's Deluxe Model, which includes, apparently, anecdotal information to supplement the numbers, has the Dem chances down to 68.2%, reinforcing the notion of shifting momentum.

FairVote.org's model on the other hand continues to predict Republicans will retain the House.  This model relies heavily on calculations about the impact of gerrymandering in each district, and on the normal bump in favor of incumbents, rather than on polling data on individual races.  The model, by the way, has been accurate at a 99.9% level for predicting outcomes in the past three election cycles, so you should treat it with respect.  Driven by the generic congressional ballot, Fairvote's model shows Democrats losing the House unless the generic ballot is above 54.5%; that is, a 9.8% point lead.  So how does this number look?

The Rasmussen poll is the most dire:  it shows the generic vote (if the election were held today, would you prefer Democrats or Repubicans to control the House?) to be 44% to 44% between the two parties with 12% undecided.  If this is correct, and it holds until election, the Fairvote model predicts Republicans will retain the house with a 242-193 seat margin.

Fivethirtyeight today shows the Democrats with an average 7.9% advantage in the generic ballot in the average of polls taken in August.  At this rate the Fairvote model would give Republicans a 5 vote edge, with 220 votes to 215.

Real Clear Politics today shows the average generic polling data between July 30 and August 21 to be only 6.6% in favor of the Democrats.  If this holds, the Fairvote model would predict Republicans to win the house with a margin of 222-213.

Thus, if you believe the Fairvote model, the House is not on target to flip, given the latest polls.  On the other hand Silber continues to show the House flipping, although the trend at the moment is swinging back to the Republican side.

The polling for the above was taken before the Manafort conviction and the Cohen confession.  Once this sinks in the Dems might see a bump.  But in the past Republicans and the Fox propaganda machine have not been inclined to show the slightest displeasure for any of the outrages--separating parents from children, gutting health care, the proven lies, the refusal of Republicans in Congress to do their jobs as a separate branch of government, the kleptocrats and fanatics in the cabinet, the massive tax cuts for the rich, the payoffs to and lies about the girlfriends, the dismantling of basic regulations, and the cynical disdain for the rule of law--so the felonious misuse of campaign funds and the elaborate deceptions to evade taxes, and the strench of sleaze surrounding Trump and his people might not make a difference.  We will see.