Will the House Flip This Year?  Two Models:  One Flips the House, the Other Does Not

Two sophisticated models have been created to predict what is likely to happen in each of the 435 congressional districts this year.  One is byFairVote.org and the other is from FiveThirtyEight.   

One model predicts the House will very probably flip; the other predicts it will stay Republican unless public opinion shifts further to the Democrats between now and the elections .  The methodologies used in the models are different.

The FiveThirtyEight model, created by Nate Silber, emphasizes the fluidity of the electorate, with extensive polling data in each district.

FairVote.org's model emphasizes the stubborn resistance of the electoral system to changing public opinion because gerrymandering and the power of incumbency lock in 79% of the House seats even though at a national level voters clearly favor the Democratic Party to lead the House. It does not rely on current polling data in each district.

Nate Silber, of FiveThirtyEight, as of this morning, estimates there is a 74.6% chance--this was about what his prediction favoring Hillary was two years ago--the House will flip to the D side this year.  The model will be updated daily, with a podcast discussing the dynamics of critical races. 

FairVote, using the generic congressional party preference poll (GCPPP) as the driver of change, 

suggests the Democrats will take over only if the GCPPP ticks up to 54.8% in favor of the Democratic Party.  Right now it is sitting at about 53.9%, which, according to the model, will give Republicans a five-vote majority.  The FairVote model allows the viewer to fiddle with the numbers for each of the 435 seats, or to change the value of the generic preference poll.