Fully 54% of Newly Registered NM Voters Are Neither Democrats Nor Republicans

What Does This Mean?

The Albuquerque Journal reports this morning that out of 43,434 voters who registered between March 31 2017 and August 31, 2018, 23,380 (53.8%) were neither Democrats nor Republicans.  Out of those who registered in the two traditional parties, Democrats nabbed 59% while Republicans got 41%.  What do we make of this?

At bottom, this speaks to the abject failure of the two political parties, either at the national or state level, to provide citizens what they want from government.  Democracy is failing, and people are beginning to rebel against a party system that contributes to its failure. Citizens want affordable health care, easy access to it, and controls over spiraling pharma costs.  They don't have it.  Americans want sensible gun control.  They don't have it.  Americans want better education.  Instead, the US keeps slipping down the international rankings on student performance and in New Mexico we slipped from 49th to 50th.  Americans want jobs with decent wages.  Instead, jobs with decent wages are disappearing.  These are non-partisan bread and butter issues, not frills, and the country can well afford them.

The primary system in place today is rigged because non-party members have no say in choosing the two candidates who are overwhelmingly likely to win the spot.  In effect, most newly registered New Mexicans are disenfranchised from having a say-so in this process.  There are many possible solutions:  allow any registered voter to vote in one primary election of their choosing.  This is what California did, with good results.  This would allow unaffiliated voters, say, to eliminate a pro-Trump Republican from winning a primary.  You could eliminate winner-take-all elections for Congress by allowing any political party winning, say, over 5% of the national vote to have seats in Congress proportional to its voting strength.  You could require a candidate to receive more than 50% of the vote in order to be elected through runoff elections or ranked voting systems.  Many other measures could reduce the likelihood that someone not wanted by the majority could get elected, something that routinely prevails today in violation of democratic fairness.

Many other ills plague American politics:  legalized bribery of public officials through campaign financing practices backed by activist Supreme Court judges, partisan polarization of Congress through the use of gerrymandering (a major contributor to the lack of civility in Congress), a monopolized news media subsidized almost exclusively by politically active, policy-driven mega-corporate interests, the bipartisan failure of government to enforce anti-monopoly laws, the bipartisan use of tax and other policies to redistribute income and wealth away from the middle class to the very wealthiest sectors of society.  Partisanship is only part of the problem

The result of all of this has been the rise of an aggressive crony-capitalist faction that, at the moment, appears bent on undermining the public respect for, and power of, key institutions like the FBI that legitimize democratic value of equal justice for all, and imposing an authoritarian, fear-driven political environment.  It will not be easy to undo these ills, which have been building steam for four decades.  But a major first step is to insist that we respect the right of voters to choose their preferred elected officials rather than to be forced into rigged political boxes that force growing numbers of people to choose between candidates they increasingly hesitate to be associated with.

New Mexico has not reached the pathetic levels of undemocratic governance we see in Washington, but it is getting there.  As I watched the debate between Michelle Lujan Grisham and Steve Pearce the other night I was struck by how much each candidate sounded like a well-rehearsed member of Congress, rattling off highly partisan talking points at a pace you couldn't keep up with.  Education?  Flip to talking points 3, 4, and 5, offer a statistic or two, vetted by national polls conducted by your political party.  The Republican answer was full of key words to appeal to conservatives (private education, charter schools), and the Democratic answer was permanent fund money for early childhood, something of a mantra among Democrats this year.  Nowhere in the debate or in the candidate web sites is there even remotely a goal such as catching up the the national student performance by, say 2035, or raising college readiness rates by 20 percent in ten years, etc.--the kinds of things educational experts believe are essential to any successful turnaround program

Most new voters in New Mexico show every evidence of being tired of the partisan games.  Leaders who hope to make a difference need to pay attention to what voters are saying with their feet about both parties.

Juarez:  Four Homicidal Attacks this Afternoon:  One Dead

Diario and La Polaka report four assassination attempts this afternoon, in three separate attacks.  Three persons were hospitalized, one was killed.

 Coming Up:  Todd Garrison Vs. Kim Stewart!
On KTAL LP's La Politica New Mexico (101.5 FM)

The Race for Doña Ana County Sheriff

Monday Morning, 8 AM Ciento Uno Punto Cinco

How Well Are We Being Governed?

Monday morning's Mesa Redonda on KTAL LP's  La Politica New Mexico will feature Victor Montoya, from Anthony NM, and Arturo Uribe, from Mesquite, interviewing the candidates and commending on the 2018 race for Sheriff of Doña Ana County.  Also present will be the candidates for Sheriff, Todd Garrison and Kim Stewart.  Hosts, as usual, will be E. Shirley Baca and Yours Truly, with the Buzzman Richard Kadzis.

Ciento Uno Punto Cinco en su dial:  Radio KTAL (LP), Radio Que Tal?

Beto Still Has a Chance to Win:  Fivethirtyeight

Perhaps the best election forecaster in the country, Nate Silver, wrote an interesting article that shows up this morning on his web site (click here).  Silver has adjusted his model to incorporate several subtle factors that show statistical significance, such as whether the challenger is leaving a relatively high elected position, or coming in out of nowhere.  Bottom line:  at the moment, based on all factors including polling, he believes Beto is behind by only a little more than 3 points, clearly within striking distance.  A major factor in his reasoning is that Beto has gotten more than twice the money than Cruz from individual donors (not PACS), a key indicator for Silver.

The polling data shown took place before the first debate between Cruz and Beto.  My own feeling, as I watched the debate, was that Beto was surprisingly weak.  Playing into Cruz's slick, faux-sincere, Baptist minister accent and cadence and one-size-fits-all- "conservative" language, Beto seemed helpless, responding with weak "liberal-sounding" platitudes that did not come off as heartfelt or convincing.  He should take a look at the Trump treatment of Cruz in debate, which reduced "lyin' Ted" to a whimpering, soggy piece of toast in about two minutes.  In a conservative state, you can be liberal or "progressive," but you need to use conservative language to get there.  Speaking slightly closer to home, I would offer exactly the same advice to Xochi.

One of the many things the DCCC does not understand, as they lord it over congressional candidates to do what they tell them to do in their campaigns, is the importance of language as a conveyor of "our" values.  This varies from state to state and region to region, but it isn't rocket science.  Everyone wants students in to improve their academic performance, now that we are 50th in the nation.  Most people, however, don't think we can get there the NEA way, which is simply to give more money to teachers.  Nor do all New Mexicans think taking money out of the permanent fund for early childhood will solve New Mexico's education problems.  Democrats could win on this issue if they stopped pandering to the special interests pushing these phony "solutions," and started being honest about the heavy commitment it will take, and talk about the kinds of things real school districts like Gadsden made to turn their system around.

What Happened to the Sort-of Truce in Juárez?

Diario:  Body Count So Far in September is 65

A man was executed in Plutarco Calles, near downtown this afternoon around 3 p.m.  He was wearing jeans and a black polo shirt.  Another man was executed inside a home in Col. Azteca last night.  Witnesses heard gunfire and found the body inside the house.

It is difficult, from a distance, to know what is going on with the truce apparently called by street gangs who had ratcheted up the body count in the past few months.  Drug-related deaths in Juárez come from two sources:  those originating in disputes between the two major drug trafficking organizations dedicated to transshipment of stuff to the US, and those originating in turf battles for the local control of retail drug sales in Juárez.  In 2009 and 2010 most homicides in Juárez stemmed from competition between the Juárez cartel and the Sinaloa cartel, over the infrastructure needed for the transshipment of drugs into the US.  In the past year or so most deaths have been attributed to turf battles over the control of retail drug sales within Juárez.  Diario ran a story last week that reports from recently jailed gang members, local street gangs called for a truce a couple of weeks ago after a great deal of killing this summer.  The body count is about half of what it was in August. 

Candidates, Mayor, on KTAL LP La Politica New Mexico

Monday, Sept. 24, 8 AM

Micaela Cadena and Charles Wendler, candidates for NM House District 33, will be interviewed on La Politica New Mexico on Monday at 8 AM.  In addition, Karen Trujillo, candidate for County Commission, District 5, will be interviewed.

The Mesa Redonda will be composed of Louis Biad and Mayor Diana Murillo Trujillo, of Anthony, NM.  Hosts for La Politica are E. Shirley Baca and Jose Z. Garcia

Latest NY Times Poll Has Xochi One Point Ahead

The NY Times today released a poll of 503 likely voters, showing Xochitl Torres Small ahead by one point, 46-45.  This is in contrast to the Albuquerque Journal Poll released on Sunday showing Yvette Harrell with a 7 point lead, 48-41.  This is likely to be an interesting race, and the NY Times poll should make it easier for Xochi to raise money and get a fair hearing throughout the district.  If the polls show a close race, the outcome could depend on turnout.

How motivated are Democrats to turn out, as opposed to Republicans?  Flipping the House is a very strong motivator and, perhaps, getting stronger every day.  How motivated are Republicans?  Herrell is a strong Trump supporter.  This could limit her appeal among moderate Democrats and Republicans, who still occupy most of the political space in this district.  A key component in turnout is the Hispanic vote, very strong in Dona Ana County, Grant County, along the Pecos River from Carlsbad to Roswell, and in the oil patch near Hobbs, which is booming once again. If Xochi is able to motivate these voters, and the name Torres will help, it could make a difference in Hispanic turnout rates.

Juárez:  The Truce is Gone:  Five Executions Yesterday

From Diario this morning:  Two men and a woman were executed on the wall of the electric transformer station on the Casas Grandes highway just outside of Juárez.  Their hands were tied behind their backs and one of the men had a light bulb in his mouth.  Several shell casings were found near the bodies.

A man was shot and killed at 2:40 pm yesterday as he left his home in Col. Villa Colonial, and an adolescent man in a vehicle with his father was grazed by a bullet in the same attack. Witnesses said two men in a grey Jeep Cherokee stopped as if to talk to the man and then shot him.  Police said he was the third victim in the last two days in that neighborhood.

A woman was shot and seriously wounded at a telephone booth outside a night club on Oscar Flores.  She was taken to a hospital

Three persons, including a woman, were arrested at 3 am this morning in possession of an encobijado.  Apparently they were trying to dump the body, wrapped in a brown blanket, when police got suspicious and chased the van on Ave. Tecnologico and finally arrested them.

Juárez:  Sicarioville is Back

Was There a Truce?  Has it Been Broken?

 

 

Diario Reports (click here):  Once again Parajes del Sur was the scene of a homicide last night.  Witnesses heard gunfire, alerted police, and a man was dead and another wounded in an attack by two persons dressed in black and driving a white Taurus.

The monthly homicide counts clearly indicate a drop in homicides in the first two weeks in September.  Here is the monthly breakdown this year:  January:  72; February:  44; March:  56:  April:  65;  May:  124; June:  177,  July:  177; August 182.  First two weeks in September, only one reported in the newspapers.

According the the Diario report this morning, recently captured gang members report there was a truce called at the end of August among gangs in Juarez, which accounts for the major slowdown in sicario activity.  The gangs had been worn down by feuding, which led to more police captures of arms and drugs and gang members.

According to the conventional wisdom within official law enforcement circles, the spike in homicides was due to the fallout of a split within the Azteca gang las year between members of the "vieja guardia," (old guard) and the "Empresa."  The old guard, according to this version, left its old bosses in the La Linea cartel to join in with the Sinaloa cartel; both have been competing against each other in the transhipment of drugs to the US.  The rivarly heated up in May of this year, accounting for the spike in homicides this summer.  Readers interested in this can go back to my blogs in early August (see, for example, my entry on August 4, covering the massacre of 13 persons in a picadero near the Juarez airport. 

Only time and the body count will tell us whether this truce, if it is indeed in effect, will last.  In the past two or three days, however, dead bodies have begun to reappear.

Another Execution This Morning in Juárez

From Diario (click here):  Reports of gunshots alerted police, who found a dead man behind a convenience store, with hands and feet tied, two gunshots to his head.  The body was discovered at approximately 7:30 this morning at Gabriel Garcia Marquez and Velentin Fuentes, next to a school.  Children were unable to gain access to the school because police closed off access to the street.

Executions Return to Juárez

Sicarios Get Back to Work Last Night:  Two Bodies

Suspected Sicaria Killed in Encounter With Police

After more than two weeks of inaction, Juárez sicarios got marching orders and went back to work.  Three men driving a compact white automobile last night fired ten rounds and left a man dead on the street in Col. Parajes del Sol.  Closer to downtown, a man dressed in jeans and running shoes was found dead in a garbage drum in Col. Partido Romero, on Panama street.

Equal Opportunity Employers?  Diario reports a woman was killed by municipal police shortly after she and an accomplice killed a man on Zaragoza Blvd and Santiago Troncoso.  According to official reports municipal police were near the scene of the killing when it occurred and initiated a search of the area.  A man wearing a tactical uniform, seeing a police car, ducked into a residence with a woman.  They began firing at police, who surrounded the building.  The suspect shouted out that he would surrender, and when police entered the building they found a woman, dead.  She is believed  to be implicated in the murder of seven persons.

KTAL LP's LA POLITICA NEW MEXICO MONDAY SEPT. 17 8-9 AM

 GUESTS:  ANGELICA RUBIO, NM HOUSE DISTRICT 35

AND KIM HAKES,  INCUMBENT COUNTY COMMISSIONER, DISTRICT 5

101.5 FM; Ciento Uno Punto Cinco

 Monday morning Sept. 17 KTAL LP's La Politica New Mexico will feature Angelica Rubio, incumbent House District 35 (no opponent), and Kim Hakes, incumbent County Commissioner, District 5.  

The Mesa Redonda will feature Arturo Uribe and Dolores Connor.

Musica selected by Shirley Baca.

The question of the day for each candidate is:  How well are we being governed by the state legislature and the County Commission?  Also, what are your major priorities, should you be elected?

Juárez-Style Slaying in Downtown El Paso

 

Early Friday morning three persons were executed outside an apartment building next to the Travis Elementary School on Lincoln Street in Lower Dyer, downtown El Paso.  A fourth person was shot and hospitalized.  Click here for story in El Paso Times.  El Paso has long been one of the least violent cities in the United States, in contrast to conditions across the River.

Beto-Cruz Agree to Three Debates

 

Beto proposed six debates, two of them in Spanish.  Cruz, who does not speak Spanish, agreed to three in English:  (a) Dallas, SMU on Sept. 21, with moderated debate over domestic policy; (b) Houston, Univ. of Houston, Sept. 30, town hall format on domestic policy; (c) San Antonio, 16 October, TV studio, moderated debate over domestic and foreign policy.

At the present time, polls show Cruz about 4 points ahead of Beto, with momentum in Beto's favor.  Can he catch up?  The debates might make a difference.  Expect Beto to make sure people know he speaks Spanish fluently.

Fivethirtyeight Gives Dems Only On-In-Three Chance

of Flipping the Senate:  New Model Presented Yesterday
Beto's Chances Slightly better than One in Three

 Fivethirtyeight has inaugurated a new model (click here) to predict the outcome of US Senate races being held this November.  As of Yesterday, based on polling and other data on each Senate seat, the model predicts the Democrats have only a 32.5% chance of taking over the Senate.  The web site also updates information about each senate race so viewers can track those most likely to be of interest.  The model shows the Texas Senate race currently at about 47.6% for Beto, 50.5% for Cruz, momentum still building for Beto.  Turnout in the Rio Grande Valley, usually low, will be critical in determining this race.

Both Fivethirtyeight and Fairvote Models Flip the House Again Today

The generic congressional ballot has widened again in the last two weeks, showing Democrats with a 9.2 point lead over Republicans on the question of which party the voter would support for Congress.  Democrats are still 1.2% shy of hitting the 50% mark, but Republicans are 10.6 points short of hitting 50%.  

 

Fivethirtyeight's 2018 Projection for the House this morning gives Dems an 83.3% chance of winning back the House this year in their "classic" model, and a 78.5% chance of winning in their "deluxe" model, which includes opinions from experts on the ground in each district.

The Fairvote.org model, which does not rely on any polling, but looks at the relationship between a district's competitiveness (past elections, party registration, gerrymandering, incumbency bump, etc.) and the national generic congressional ballot, shows the House flipping with a Democratic Party winning margin on 5 seats based on today's values on the generic congressional ballot.  But it still shows the CD2 seat a a "safe seat" for Republican candidate Yvette Harrell.

Polls this year as well as these models have consistently shown a preference on the part of voters for a sizeable shift in partisan leadership in the House.  But gerrymandering and the power of incumbency have made the will of the national electorate much less important in determining the outcome of a congressional seat.  These rigging processes have been going on for a long time, but in recent years, with better data and more sophisticated models, they have become much more reliable in squelching the will of the people.  

 

And they go a long way toward explaining why, when polls show an overwhelming majority of voters want universal health care and reasonable drug prices, reasonable measures to keep guns out the hands of crazies, more investment in infrastructure and schools, and some curtailment of the runaway salaries of corporate CEOs, none of these have materialized.  Our political system no longer maintains the kinds of checks and balances on power, wherever it lies, as envisioned in our constitution.  Congress, for example, this year, has completely abdicated its constitutional role as a major check on executive power.  And our least democratic institution, the US Supreme Court, is now being rigged again in favor on those anti-democratic forces that have done so much to subvert the will of the people.  These are not partisan issues; the damage was done with strong bipartisan support under Democratic as well as Republican presidents and Congresses.  We are in a constitutional melt-down.

Sicario Activity Down in Juárez so far in September

After several months of warfare among rival gangs in Juárez, scrambling to protect turf in the increasingly lucrative local market for choice drugs, such as crystal meth, heroin, coke, and other substances, the murder rate appears to have dipped significantly in the last couple of weeks.  Why would this be?  Is the average sicario getting his kids ready for school?  Is discipline being restored by the major cartels, who until now have left gangs alone to squabble for turf?  Are things quieting down until the on-the-ground policies of the new presidential administration,  (AMLO will take over in December) shake out?  Do changes in the local political scene have an impact?  It may take a while for the pros who follow Mexican drug cartel activity on both sides of the border figure things out and, if they choose, to let us know.  Meanwhile, lower and mi-level business men and women providing services to powerful organizations involved in the commercializing and transshipment of popular recreational drugs are probably  breathing a cautious sigh of relief.

 

Mexican production of poppies for heroin is up to record highs, according to the ONDCP, the White House's coordinating agency for drug control.  The White House has announced its concern about this.  Will separating more children from their families help reduce this production?  Will another announcement about Mexican immigrants being rapists help in this battle?  Will unilateral destruction of the NAFTA agreement result in lower poppy production?  Is there any connection between the acreage of poppies in Mexico and the state of US-Mexico relations?

Analysts from Sunland, Anthony, Question MLG's Traction in South Doña Ana County

 On La Politica NM, KTAL LP

Two longtime activists from the Southern end of Doña Ana County questioned Michelle Lujan Grisham's popularity in that neck of the woods on a talk show on KTAL LP yesterday.  Ken Giove, former city council member from Sunland Park flatly stated if the election were held today in Sunland Park, Steve Pearce would come out ahead.  And Arturo Uribe, an activist in the South Mesilla Valley, indicated Pearce has been reaching out for many years to locals and has gained a measure of popularity.  Both agreed that Howie Morales, MLG's running mate, so far has generated more interest than the candidate herself.

While the campaign for governor has barely gotten under way, these reports, if true, should sound a cautionary note to the MLG campaign.  The South Valley of Doña Ana County, one--on-one between Hillary-Trump in 2016, supported Hillary Clinton with a margin of 73-27.  As a voting block in the county it racks up the highest percentage of votes for Democrats.  With about 21% of the county vote, that ain't chicken feed.  In contrast. outside of the South Valley Clinton won the presidential race in the county with 56%,17 points behind the South Valley.  It is also heavily Hispanic. Ninety seven percent of the student body of the Gadsden Independent School District, which comprises a hefty chunk of the South Valley, is Hispanic, and of these 33% are English language learners.  Thus far, however, many local elected officials, while Hispanic, do not speak Spanish, and few have managed to inspire citizens with a voice that resonates their interests.  This may be about to change.

With El Paso spilling into the Southern part of Doña Ana County, the South Valley has become a dynamic growth area, with an upwardly mobile, although still low-income, population.  The proximity to job markets in El Paso, the growing Santa Teresa border industrial area, and much lower property taxes, leave this region poised for continued growth.

Louis Biad, a Republican businessman, commenting on the same talk show but not specifically addressing the DAC South Valley, said he believed the race, overall, was MLG's to lose, given the advantage Democrats have over Republicans in registered voters, the lack of popularity of Donald Trump, and the bump the party out-of-power normally has in an off-year election.

La Politica New Mexico airs live on Mondays at 8 AM, on KTAL LP (101.5 FM) and began its coverage of the 2018 campaign yesterday.

Fairvote.org CD2 Race Projection Goes Back to R Side

The generic congressional ballot has gone down a couple of points, down to about 9 points in favor of the Democratic Party.  Fairvote.org which projected the race to be a tossup just a couple of days ago is now back to predicting an R win, with "high confidence."  Fivethrityeight has consistently rated the probability of a D win to be only about one in four.

Juárez Municipal Elections

Armando Cabada is Declared Mayor After a See-Saw Recount Process

After a contentious period of counting, recounting, and re-recounting votes, the Municipal Electoral Assembly has declared Armando Cabada did after all win his re-election bid.  He will begin serving his second term on September 9.  Initially, Cabada's opponent, Javier Gonzalez Mocken, who had served previously as mayor, was declared the victor.  Gonzalez Mocken was again confirmed the victor after a recount by the Chihuahua Electoral Institute, but Cabada appealed the decision and the Federal Electoral Institute intervened.  After a punctilious third recount, Cabada was declared the winner yesterday.

Cabada was until two years ago a popular news anchor on Canal 44, a television station owned by his family.  He ran as an independent.  His opponent, Javier Gonzalez Mocken, was appointed mayor in December 2015, when the incumbent mayor resigned to run an unsuccessful campaign for governor.  He served until October 2016, when Cabada was elected mayor.  Gonzalez was running for mayor this time under the flag of the Morena Party, which elected Anrés Manuel Lopez Obrador President this year.  In January of this year he renounced his long affiliation with the PRI party to join with Morena.

While Cabada served only a two-year term in office as mayor, he will now serve a three-year term that will end in 2021.  For many years the three-year term in office in Chihuahua's municipalities did not coincide with national elections held every three and six years.  Largely as a means of raising turnout rates, the state accommodated a change to the national cycle, and as a result Cabada's term in office was from 2016-2018.  He will be eligible for re-election in 2021.

La Politica New Mexico Goes on Radio Monday Morning 8 AM

 KTAL LP, 101.5; Also available for Streaming (click here)

Analysts from Mesquite, Sunland Park, and Las Cruces

Beginning September 10, Mondays at 8 AM, and continuing throughout the election season, La Politica New Mexico will broadcast on Radio KTAL LP, 101.5 FM, with co-hosts Jose Z. Garcia and Shirley Baca, and focusing on the Dona Ana County political scene.  

There is also an A-Team Roundtable of analysts on each program.  The analysts on Monday, September 10 at 8 AM will be Arturo Uribe (Mesquite) Ken Giove (Sunland Park), and Dolores Connor (Las Cruces).  The discussion will be about how the national, state, and local races are likely to play out here in Doña Ana County, with special emphasis on CD2, the Governor's race, and the Sheriff's race.

Generic Congressional Ballot  Now Shows 11.3% Lead for Democrats

This Predicts Flipping the House and Moving CD2 into Tossup Status at Fairvote.org

Fivethirtyeight Polling Still Shows Xochitl with only 29% Chance of Winning

In recent days the generic congressional ballot has widened in favor the the Democrats.  The Fairvote.org model now predicts the House will flip to Democratic with a margin of  224D-211R.  It also moves the Xochitl race into the "tossup" category, up from "lean Republican."  The Fivethirtyeight model (click here), based more heavily on polling, still shows Xochi with only a 29% chance of winning, but it now shows Democrats have an 80% chance of winning the House.

The generic congressional ballot has favored Democrats over Republicans this year by margins as close as 3.9% (on May 22) and as much as 11.9% (on January 1).  Because of heavily gerrymandered districts favoring Republicans, the House is unlikely to flip unless the gap is at least 8-10 points wide.

While the gap has been trending recently against Republicans, this may be simply because President Trump has been having a bad two weeks.  A few tweets of anti-immigrant insults and railing against Nancy Pelosi, and the gap may well narrow again.

The models change daily, with new information, so you may find different numbers if you check.

Four Myths About Politics in the South Valley of Doña Ana County

The South Valley of Doña Ana County has always been something of a mystery to Las Crucens, to say nothing of people North of I-40.  Rumors, sometimes confirmed, of lap-dancer videos and blackmail, political bosses buying or selling votes, or the city being taken over by the state, have plagued the image of Sunland Park for many years.  Anthony has not suffered from a black image, but perhaps even worse, has been all but completely ignored as a vital corner of the county, a black hole somewhere under the freeway on the way to El Paso.  Part of the problem is that Texas and New Mexico blend into each other without official notice:  the river is not often the dividing line, all the way to Sunland, and Anthony Texas is across the street from Anthony NM.  Santa Teresa lies somewhere in the misty clouds of the contemporary US-Mexico border imaginary, sometimes aggrandized as the biggest economic development project in the state, sometimes consigned to the trash heap of failure, water always being a prime but murky motivator.

I will leave painting a more realistic big picture of the DAC South Valley for another time, and confine myself here to putting some perspective simply on the electoral value of this region.

Where is the South Valley?  Definitions are always arbitrary, but for heuristic purposes I have counted 20 of the 120 DAC voting precincts as comprising the South Valley.  I start with Mesilla, but not Mesilla Park, throw in Tortugas and Pecan Valley, and then go South, without including Chaparral (which I consider, culturally, to be a piece of Otero or El Paso County that drifted into the waters of DAC by mistake).  Chaparral is worthy of discussion, but that will also come later.

Myth No. 1:  The South Valley is where Chope's is, and then you hit Sunland Park and the Racino, surrounded by pecan farms, lightly populated.  Not very important politically.  A counter-myth (see below) is that without the South Valley Democrats would be wildly outnumbered by Republicans in the county, so it is vital to the Democratic Party.

The Truth:  The South Valley contains a little more than one fifth of the population of the county.  It contains, to be exact, about 21.5% of the registered voters of the county.  Is that important?  Read on.

Myth No. 2:  People don't vote in the South Valley. They don't register, and if they do they don't go out to vote.  Politically, they are weaker than their potential numbers

The Truth:  Turnout numbers in the South Valley are almost exactly what you would expect, given voter registration numbers.  In the 2016 presidential elections, the South Valley comprised 21.7% of the county's registered voters, and provided 20.7% of the number of votes cast in the county for president, a very small under-vote.  Voter turnout in the South Valley is not significantly different from the rest of the county.

Myth No 3:  Without the South Valley Democrats couldn't win races in DAC.

The Truth:  Democratic performance is clearly stronger in the South Valley than in the county as a whole.  For example, Hillary took the South Valley with 68% of all votes cast for President (remember this includes Gary Johnson and Mickey Mouse); The rest of the county--not counting the South Valley--gave Hillary only 50.0% of the vote.  Stated slightly differently, one-on-one with Trump, Hillary won with 73% in the South Valley.  In the rest of the county Hillary got 56.3% of the Hillary-Trump vote.  So, in that race, the South Valley outperformed the rest of the county by about 17 points.  Seventeen points is certainly enough to make the difference in many cases between a candidate winning the county and losing.

Myth No. 4:  People in the South Valley are first generation Mexicans, who only speak Spanish and aren't citizens so that's why (see myth no. 2) they don't vote.

The Truth:  The US Census shows about 15% of Doña Ana County were born in Mexico.  And out of the entire Hispanic population in the county, about 22% were born in Mexico.  In the Gadsden Independent School District (roughly the DAC South Valley) 97% of the student population is Hispanic, and 33%% of all students are English Language Learners, "unable to communicate fluently or learn effectively in English…"  So only about one third of the parents are likely to have been born in Mexico or, possibly, in El Paso, where Spanish is essentially a native language.  In any event, as we saw in Myth No. 2, above, voter turnout among registered voters is virtually the same as the rest of the county, in spite of the high number of Spanish speakers among voters.  Speaking Spanish at home, in other words, is not a hindrance to the propensity to vote or otherwise exercise citizenship.

Incidentally, in spite of the large number of english languag learners, Gadsden Independent School District student performance lies in the top third of all 89 school districts in the state, in comparison with the Las Cruces School District, whose students perform deep into the bottom half.  This is a remarkable achievement for one of the most impoverished districts in the state.