Latest NY Times Poll Has Xochi One Point Ahead

The NY Times today released a poll of 503 likely voters, showing Xochitl Torres Small ahead by one point, 46-45.  This is in contrast to the Albuquerque Journal Poll released on Sunday showing Yvette Harrell with a 7 point lead, 48-41.  This is likely to be an interesting race, and the NY Times poll should make it easier for Xochi to raise money and get a fair hearing throughout the district.  If the polls show a close race, the outcome could depend on turnout.

How motivated are Democrats to turn out, as opposed to Republicans?  Flipping the House is a very strong motivator and, perhaps, getting stronger every day.  How motivated are Republicans?  Herrell is a strong Trump supporter.  This could limit her appeal among moderate Democrats and Republicans, who still occupy most of the political space in this district.  A key component in turnout is the Hispanic vote, very strong in Dona Ana County, Grant County, along the Pecos River from Carlsbad to Roswell, and in the oil patch near Hobbs, which is booming once again. If Xochi is able to motivate these voters, and the name Torres will help, it could make a difference in Hispanic turnout rates.