Fivethirtyeight Gives Dems Only On-In-Three Chance

of Flipping the Senate:  New Model Presented Yesterday
Beto's Chances Slightly better than One in Three

 Fivethirtyeight has inaugurated a new model (click here) to predict the outcome of US Senate races being held this November.  As of Yesterday, based on polling and other data on each Senate seat, the model predicts the Democrats have only a 32.5% chance of taking over the Senate.  The web site also updates information about each senate race so viewers can track those most likely to be of interest.  The model shows the Texas Senate race currently at about 47.6% for Beto, 50.5% for Cruz, momentum still building for Beto.  Turnout in the Rio Grande Valley, usually low, will be critical in determining this race.