Beto Still Has a Chance to Win:  Fivethirtyeight

Perhaps the best election forecaster in the country, Nate Silver, wrote an interesting article that shows up this morning on his web site (click here).  Silver has adjusted his model to incorporate several subtle factors that show statistical significance, such as whether the challenger is leaving a relatively high elected position, or coming in out of nowhere.  Bottom line:  at the moment, based on all factors including polling, he believes Beto is behind by only a little more than 3 points, clearly within striking distance.  A major factor in his reasoning is that Beto has gotten more than twice the money than Cruz from individual donors (not PACS), a key indicator for Silver.

The polling data shown took place before the first debate between Cruz and Beto.  My own feeling, as I watched the debate, was that Beto was surprisingly weak.  Playing into Cruz's slick, faux-sincere, Baptist minister accent and cadence and one-size-fits-all- "conservative" language, Beto seemed helpless, responding with weak "liberal-sounding" platitudes that did not come off as heartfelt or convincing.  He should take a look at the Trump treatment of Cruz in debate, which reduced "lyin' Ted" to a whimpering, soggy piece of toast in about two minutes.  In a conservative state, you can be liberal or "progressive," but you need to use conservative language to get there.  Speaking slightly closer to home, I would offer exactly the same advice to Xochi.

One of the many things the DCCC does not understand, as they lord it over congressional candidates to do what they tell them to do in their campaigns, is the importance of language as a conveyor of "our" values.  This varies from state to state and region to region, but it isn't rocket science.  Everyone wants students in to improve their academic performance, now that we are 50th in the nation.  Most people, however, don't think we can get there the NEA way, which is simply to give more money to teachers.  Nor do all New Mexicans think taking money out of the permanent fund for early childhood will solve New Mexico's education problems.  Democrats could win on this issue if they stopped pandering to the special interests pushing these phony "solutions," and started being honest about the heavy commitment it will take, and talk about the kinds of things real school districts like Gadsden made to turn their system around.