Analysts from Sunland, Anthony, Question MLG's Traction in South Doña Ana County

 On La Politica NM, KTAL LP

Two longtime activists from the Southern end of Doña Ana County questioned Michelle Lujan Grisham's popularity in that neck of the woods on a talk show on KTAL LP yesterday.  Ken Giove, former city council member from Sunland Park flatly stated if the election were held today in Sunland Park, Steve Pearce would come out ahead.  And Arturo Uribe, an activist in the South Mesilla Valley, indicated Pearce has been reaching out for many years to locals and has gained a measure of popularity.  Both agreed that Howie Morales, MLG's running mate, so far has generated more interest than the candidate herself.

While the campaign for governor has barely gotten under way, these reports, if true, should sound a cautionary note to the MLG campaign.  The South Valley of Doña Ana County, one--on-one between Hillary-Trump in 2016, supported Hillary Clinton with a margin of 73-27.  As a voting block in the county it racks up the highest percentage of votes for Democrats.  With about 21% of the county vote, that ain't chicken feed.  In contrast. outside of the South Valley Clinton won the presidential race in the county with 56%,17 points behind the South Valley.  It is also heavily Hispanic. Ninety seven percent of the student body of the Gadsden Independent School District, which comprises a hefty chunk of the South Valley, is Hispanic, and of these 33% are English language learners.  Thus far, however, many local elected officials, while Hispanic, do not speak Spanish, and few have managed to inspire citizens with a voice that resonates their interests.  This may be about to change.

With El Paso spilling into the Southern part of Doña Ana County, the South Valley has become a dynamic growth area, with an upwardly mobile, although still low-income, population.  The proximity to job markets in El Paso, the growing Santa Teresa border industrial area, and much lower property taxes, leave this region poised for continued growth.

Louis Biad, a Republican businessman, commenting on the same talk show but not specifically addressing the DAC South Valley, said he believed the race, overall, was MLG's to lose, given the advantage Democrats have over Republicans in registered voters, the lack of popularity of Donald Trump, and the bump the party out-of-power normally has in an off-year election.

La Politica New Mexico airs live on Mondays at 8 AM, on KTAL LP (101.5 FM) and began its coverage of the 2018 campaign yesterday.