Generic Congressional Ballot Now Shows 11.3% Lead for Democrats
This Predicts Flipping the House and Moving CD2 into Tossup Status at Fairvote.org
Fivethirtyeight Polling Still Shows Xochitl with only 29% Chance of Winning
In recent days the generic congressional ballot has widened in favor the the Democrats. The Fairvote.org model now predicts the House will flip to Democratic with a margin of 224D-211R. It also moves the Xochitl race into the "tossup" category, up from "lean Republican." The Fivethirtyeight model (click here), based more heavily on polling, still shows Xochi with only a 29% chance of winning, but it now shows Democrats have an 80% chance of winning the House.
The generic congressional ballot has favored Democrats over Republicans this year by margins as close as 3.9% (on May 22) and as much as 11.9% (on January 1). Because of heavily gerrymandered districts favoring Republicans, the House is unlikely to flip unless the gap is at least 8-10 points wide.
While the gap has been trending recently against Republicans, this may be simply because President Trump has been having a bad two weeks. A few tweets of anti-immigrant insults and railing against Nancy Pelosi, and the gap may well narrow again.
The models change daily, with new information, so you may find different numbers if you check.
The generic congressional ballot has favored Democrats over Republicans this year by margins as close as 3.9% (on May 22) and as much as 11.9% (on January 1). Because of heavily gerrymandered districts favoring Republicans, the House is unlikely to flip unless the gap is at least 8-10 points wide.
While the gap has been trending recently against Republicans, this may be simply because President Trump has been having a bad two weeks. A few tweets of anti-immigrant insults and railing against Nancy Pelosi, and the gap may well narrow again.
The models change daily, with new information, so you may find different numbers if you check.
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