Update:  Comparing Mexico and New Mexico:  Coronavirus

Comparisons:  Mexico has a population of about 128 million.  New Mexico has a population of 2 million.  From data provided in Diario this morning (click here), Mexico has tested 8841 persons (less than one in ten thousand), as of a day or two ago.  Out of these, 1094 (12.8%) have tested positive, and 2752 persons are awaiting results. (Note:  there has been some testing in the private sector, but as I understand it, these numbers are not necessarily included in the above count)

New Mexico has tested 12,527 persons (almost 60 out of ten thousand) as of this morning's update from the NM Dept. of Health (click here).  Out of these, 281 (2.2%) have tested positive.

Testing:  In both cases--especially Mexico--only those persons with a reasonable chance of having the disease--in the case of Mexico, only who have traveled abroad or who have contacted someone with a confirmed case of the virus have been tested.  In New Mexico in most cases only persons with symptoms have been tested--where and when tests were available.  

A relatively high proportion of coronavirus victims show no symptoms--as many as 50%, in some tested populations, much less in others.  Asymptomatic persons can, however, spread the disease.  Someone getting off a plane from China in Mexico City, who tested positive for the virus may have infected numerous unidentifiable persons at the airport before being tested; if some of these showed no symptoms, they were almost certainly not tested, and may well have been spreading the virus, which spreads with lightning speed.  Likewise, in New Mexico someone who caught the virus but showed no symptoms would not have been eligible for testing.  Those persons may well have been spreading the virus without knowing it.

Bottom line:  We don't know what proportion of Mexicans or New Mexicans have the virus because we haven't sampled people randomly, who show no symptoms.

Comment:  New Mexico is a lot closer to understanding the spread of the virus because we've tested more persons than all of Mexico.  And Governor Lujan-Grisham's stated desire to test all New Mexicans speaks well for her desire to find out as quickly as possible what the situation looks like:  are we infected to a degree where we will become New York?  Do we still have time to prepare?  Will our hospitals be able to handle the load?  We won't know until we test extensively or until it's too late to do much about it.  I suspect we will have some ballpark models of where we are in the next few days.  But even if it is already too late in New Mexico for now, extensive testing will give us a good idea of the second wave that experts believe will come, perhaps late this year.  Mexico, on the other hand, is almost completely blind, and unless they very quickly ramp up their capabilities to test extensive portions of the population they may end up easily like New York.  The delays of President Lopez Obrador and his federal government to try to catch up to the virus are tantamount to giving the virus a strong head start.

Forty Seven Discovered Cases of Covid-19 in El Paso

Juarez Still Claims only 4, all of them "Imported"

Dee Margo Announces Stricter Measures Now that the Spread is Community-based

New Mexico has 237 discovered cases, 34 Deaths

Dona Ana County has 17 Discovered cases

Texas has Discovered 2877 Cases and 38 Deaths

 Run on Guns and Ammo Reported Anecdotally

In response to a rapid rise in the number of cases uncovered in Texas--probably due in part to more extensive testing recently--Governor Greg Abbot issued an order last night requiring a 14-day self-quarantine for travelers into Texas by road from Louisiana.  Air travel from Miami, Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago, and the states of California and Washington will also have to self-quarantine for 14 days in Texas.  (El Paso Times, click here).  However, this order does not apply, at least for the moment, for travelers from New Mexico or Colorado or Arkansas or Oklahoma. Louisiana is the site of a serious local outbreak of the virus.

El Paso and El Paso County issued a stay at home public health order, telling residents to remain home, except for essential trips such as buying groceries, caring for a family member or visiting a doctor.  This represents a tightening of restrictions on public movement.

From various sources I have learned that there is a run on guns and ammunition in this area.

Marjorie Childress Writes Excellent NM InDepth Review of Covid-19 Data

Click Here for Best Summary of NM So Far

Where is the NM Border Authority?
Government of Chihuahua Takes Even Stronger Measures Last Night

Tightening the "Sanitation Ring" Within the State

Coordination of Efforts with Some Surrounding States But Not NM or TX

Salvador Esparza of NorteDigital reports this morning (click here) the State of Chihuahua is taking additional steps to tighten controls designed to reduce the spread of coronavirus.  Among them are:  (1) the design and creation of  one Covid-19 hospital in Juarez and another in Chihuahua; (2) coordination of efforts with the neighboring states of Sonora, Durango, Sinaloa, Nuevo Leon, and Coahuila; (3) creation of 14 "sanitation" checkpoints at strategic locations on major highways, including the old customs checkpoint at Km 30 just South of Juarez.

Secretary of Health Enrique Grajeda, according to the report, said that at the present time there are "enough hospital beds with intensive care capabilities to deal with the eventual spread of the virus." (comment:  this is in sharp contrast with what Diario has reported is the case in Juarez).  Secretary Grajeda earlier on Friday met with key state legislators in the legislative palace, which is closed to the public as part of the state quarantine.

Comment: While it is reassuring that Chihuahua is coordinating efforts with surrounding states, two key surrounding states were not mentioned:  Texas and New Mexico, on the US side of a border that coronavirus does not respect.  With a combined population of more than 1 million people living within coughing distance of Juarez,  and with hundreds of thousands of trucks crossing the border checkpoints each year, no measures taken by the government of the state can ignore this reality.  There may be a lot more going on in the way of communication between the three states than we know about.  But we have a right to know that something is happening, even if not exactly what.  Our probability of contracting coronavirus may depend in part on just that something.

Where is the Border Authority?

One potential New Mexico player in all of this is the NM Border Authority, created more than a quarter century ago precisely to deal with the infrastructure needed to sustain current levels of commerce between NM and Chihuahua.  If the health of our population is not part of the infrastructure of the region, during a global pandemic, then what is the point?  The executive director speaks excellent Spanish, and worked for Senator Udall, so he would seem to be in a good position to interact with officials in Juarez and Chihuahua.  

in my opinion he should be reporting directly to the Governor of NM (instead of to the Secretary of Economic Development) and charged with (1) understanding just what is taking place on the other side of the border; (2) exploring possibilities of mutually beneficial cooperation in the coronavirus crisis; and--perhaps most important--providing information for the citizens of NM about what is happening on the other side of the river that might bear on our health. 

One former executive director of the NM Border Authority, Jaime Campos, is now in charge of the division of "industry" for the Chihuahua Secretary of Economic Development, and has lately been in the news announcing forthcoming measures to combat coronavirus in the maquila section of Juarez.  His boss, Alejandra de la Vega, is married to a prominent El Paso businessman; she has made significant donations to NMSU.  She has a long association with border issues.  Has someone contacted them?  Let us know.

Updates on Coronavirus in Mexico and the Border Region:

Chihuahua Suffering Like New Mexico From the Same Supply Shortages for Testing

 for Coronavirus
 

Chihuahua:  500 Completed Swabs of Possible Coronavirus Victims, Still Waiting for Testing Materials

El Heraldo (click here) today reports 500 swabs have been taken from possible coronavirus victims and are ready for evaluation.  But health officials in Chihuahua have been unable to obtain supplies from the federal government of the reagents needed to evaluate the tests as positive or negative.  Chihuahua had completed only about 42 tests as of yesterday.  State officials had asked for these materials two months ago, according to Dr. Leticia Ruiz González, sub-director of Preventive Medicine and Health Advocacy in the Chihuahua state Department of Health.

New Mexico:  Problems Obtaining Test Supplies Similar to Those of Chihuahua

Three days ago (click here for KOAT report) Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham complained about the lack of responsiveness from the federal government among other areas in providing the reagents needed to perform tests on samples taken from patients.  “They have made it incredibly complicated to access the swabbing at the front end and the reagents at the back end, she said."  In spite of these problems New Mexico has been able to test 8513 persons, thanks in part to cooperation between the state and public and private scientific community--which is in some cases world-class.

Comment:  With populations of 3.5 million in Chihuahua, 2.1 million in New Mexico, and nearly 2.5 million people in the Paso del Norte, the border region community is acting blindly, without an understanding of the current local spread of what looms as the most dangerous pandemic in a century.  This is not because our local officials in this community failed, but because our federal governments failed to deliver what our tax dollars paid them to deliver.  The federal governments of the two countries for all practical purposes abandoned the US-Mexico Border Health Commission, formed twenty years ago precisely to prepare for health issues that spanned the border region.  And as the coronavirus crisis was predictably approaching North America after the massive outbreak in China, the presidents of both countries went out of their way publicly to ignore the urgent pleas of the health and scientific communities of Mexico and the US.

This is not to mention the nearly half-billion people who pay taxes to the federal government in Mexico and the US combined, and have every right to expect far better from their governments.

Updates Coronavirus March 26 U.S.-Mexico Borderlands
Plus:  State Prosecutor in Juarez Threatens to Send Stay-At-Home Violators to Jail

Mexico:  (click here for source  475 confirmed cases as of March 26 )

USA:  68,594 cases confirmed as of early morning March 26. (click here for source)

Chihuahua:  (click here for source)  6 confirmed cases, 8 suspected cases, 28 negative cases.

Sonora:  (click here for source):  4 confirmed cases, 35 suspected cases, 51 negative cases

New Mexico:  (click here for source):  112 confirmed cases; total tests given:  7793

Texas:  (click here for source):1345 confirmed cases

Arizona:  (click here for source):  401 confirmed cases

El Paso:  (click here for source): 21 confirmed cases plus 7 confirmed cases at Ft. Bliss

Analysis:  The number of confirmed cases in each entity does not tell a complete picture of what is happening, since the number of tests given per capita varies from place to place.  Mexico, for example, has uncovered only 475 cases of coronavirus as of March 26.  But they have apparently tested only 4546 cases in total (475 confirmed, 1656 "suspected"--presumably awaiting test results--and 2445 negative cases from a very select group of people--returning from foreign countries, or having come directly in contact with someone who has tested positive out of this group.  New Mexico, on the other hand, has tested 7793 persons so far, and uncovered 112 cases.  Moreover, Mexico allows private testing, and I'm not sure whether the results of these must be sent to the government to be included in the statistics.

Similarly, it is not clear how extensive testing has been in Texas.

Prison for People Roaming the Streets of Juarez

Perhaps wishing to underscore the critical need for people to isolate, and the determination of the state government to enforce the stay-at-home quarantine currently in place, Chihuahua Governor Javier Corral has announced that persons violating the rules; that is to say, roaming the streets, will be subject to prosecution with penalties up to four years in prison. To punctuate this point the state prosecutor in Juarez announced his intentions of enforcing the governor's orders.  (click here for story in NorteDigital).  Chihuahua has imposed the strictest lockdown orders thus far given in the border region, and far more than in the US as a whole.

This may reflect the apparent paucity of testing going on in Mexico.  If you aren't testing extensively, to understand the magnitude and geographic extension of the contagion, the only remedy to "flatten the curve" is a strict quarantine.  In the US testing has been extremely slow to take hold, although not as slow as Mexico.  As in Mexico the federal government in the US has left the question of social distancing to the states.

Chihuahua State Has Plans to Rent out Hotels to Quarantine Positive Coronavirus Victims

New Mexico Health Care Workers Complain They Will Not be Tested Unless Showing Symptoms

Paso del Norte Health Foundation Announces New Region-Wide Coronavirus Information Hub

Chihuahua:  NorteDigital reported this afternoon that officials in the state Department of Health of Chihuahua have been meeting with representative of the private sector to consider rental of hotel rooms in local establishments, should a massive spike in cases occur.  Such a move would be efficient, since it would at once isolate persons who have tested positive and provide space for those needing hospitalization.  In New York Governor Cuomo is planning to rent hotel space for those sick enough to need hospitalization

New Mexico:  NM In Depth reports Albuquerque health care workers are complaining authorities are not allowing them to be tested for the coronavirus unless they are already showing symptoms, and in some cases not providing enough safe protective equipment.  An Albuquerque emergency room nurse complained "...We are being given equipment but [are] asked to reuse it in an unsafe manner. I get it but we should have been prepared as an organization, as a state, as a nation.”  David Morgan, spokesperson for the Department of Health said this about testing, according to NM in Depth:  "We are trying to avoid shortages, that’s why we’re limiting testing currently to those with symptoms,”

El Paso:   And excellent place for updates on the coronavirus situation in El Paso is the El Paso Herald-Post (click here)  It is the single best source I have been able to find.  In today's news the Herald-Post announced the Paso del Norte Health Foundation would create an information hub, presumably dealing with the entire region.  The URL for this is http://www.epcovid19.org/. However, it did not appear to contain much factual information about the region as a whole.

Uncovered Cases of Coronavirus in the Region:

El Paso:                                                                       21
New Mexico:  (as of early morning)                         100
Chihuahua:  (as of yesterday)                                       6
Texas                                                                         714
Juarez                                                                            4
Las Cruces                                                                    6
Dona Ana County                                                        13
Mexico                                                                      405
US                                                                         61.000+

The low numbers in Mexico may simply indicate that testing has not been as extensive as it has in the US.  New York has done by far the most testing in the US, over half of all tests, finding 17,856 cases as of this afternoon, and rising quickly.  The low numbers in El Paso, as in Juarez, may indicate that testing has not been as extensive as it has been in New Mexico.  El Paso has 4 times the population of Dona Ana county, but less than twice the number of discovered cases.  It should be noted that in Dona Ana county testing has been limited.

Chihuahua Governor Corral Steps Up

Shuts Down Much of the State Tentatively Until April 20

Yesterday Governor Javier Corral (click here for facebook video) announced the suspension of "all public and private activity" as a means of combatting the coronavirus crisis.  All theaters, malls, bars, restaurants, nightclubs, museums, sports events, conventions and private gatherings will close down, and he said heavy fines will be levied on those who violate the rules. He asked citizens to adopt an older person who might be especially vulnerable.  He reiterated that Chihuahua is still in phase I, which means grocery stores, supermarkets, and other food providers will continue to be opened, but with protocols of safe distancing.  He said that businesses that continue to function should use only the personnel absolutely necessary and promote work from home.

He also asserted Chihuahua has enough doctors and nurses to handle to pandemic, as well as hospital beds, respirators, ventilators, and testing capabilities, although "more will be asked for."  Citizens of the state should stay in their homes, go out as little as possible, and families should shop at supermarkets using only one member per family.  Those needing medical assistance should go alone or at most with one other person.  He said only if Chihuahuenses adhere to these measures will massive contagion be prevented.  He assured the public the state will keep informing about the condition of coronavirus in the state.

Note:  This is the strongest statement of current coronavirus policy yet from a governor in the surrounding states of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Chihuahua and Sonora.  No other governor in these states has taken such strong measures designed to slow the progress of the contagion.  And he appears to be among the first state leaders to suggest the concept of "adopting" an older, more vulnerable adult to assist through what are likely to be hard times.  In New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan-Grisham has implemented strong policies, with enforcement, of social distancing, but has also emphasized the importance of doing widespread testing as a means of understanding the extent of the spread of the virus and determining when the spike in Albuquerque and other places in the state will take place.

Governor Corral did not address how many persons have been tested for coronavirus in the state, or exactly how the number of estimated cases in the state will be calculated, or what the state is doing to increase the number of ICU units in the state or the number of ventilators.  Reports in Diario suggest there will be a drastic shortage of these in Juárez, should the number of cases begin to surge, as it appears likely to do.  To my knowledge the number of persons tested in the state so far has not been made public.  News reports last week asserted the state had received capabilities of testing 400 persons.  New Mexico has tested just under 6000 persons so far, according to this morning's update at the website of the NM Dept of Health (click here), with 83 positive cases.

Chihuahua State Continues Policy of Coronavirus Phase I

Assumes Little Community Spread

But Chihuahua Has Tested Only the Very Most Likely to Have the Virus

Not Tested Frequent Border Crossers

So Chihuahua has no Clue Whether there is Community Spread

As of This Morning All of Mexico Has Tested 1983 Persons, 316 positive

New Mexico has tested  5386 Persons, 65 positive

Officials in Chihuahua announced this morning (click here) that Chihuahua continues in phase I of coronavirus.  In phase I testing for is given only to persons with symptoms who have recently traveled abroad.  It was less than a week ago that 400 tests were made available in Chihuahua. The assumption is that the virus is being imported from abroad, and has not yet achieved community contagion.  It is unclear how strictly testing occurs for all persons in contact with the infected traveler, or whether testing occurs only after someone in contact with the traveler shows symptoms. But a significantly high proportion of transmissions (some estimates go as high as 50%) come from persons who show no symptoms.  If these persons are not tested, they may well be spreading the virus undetected within the community.  And we know the virus spreads quickly. 

Chihuahua and Juárez have been shutting down public events for more than a week, a tacit admission that the state has already reached phase II, in which community spread is ongoing or, in this case because of little testing, that it might be going on.  In phase II public events are shut down, and social distancing begins.  But testing in Chihuahua is still at the phase I level.  This means the state is completely clueless about the extent of community spread and will be until extensive testing is done.  And public health measures to shut down all non-essential businesses or keep them open only with persons working from home, are not in place.  There appears to have been no interruption in maquiladora operations in Juarez except for those caused by supply chain shortages.  You can't put together a refrigerator or car part from home.  And two out of three jobs in Juárez are in the maquila sector.  This is a tough, painful call for authorities to make in Juárez.

Juárez Downtown Yesterday Afternoon PHOTO DIARIO:  Life Continues as Usual

Mexico's National Coronavirus Policy, Late March 2020

Same Mistakes With Testing As the US

President Lopez Obrador Follows Trump's Lead in Downplaying the Disease

Health Officials in Mexico Alarmed About Slow Response, Lack of Testing
New Mexico Has Tested More People  than Mexico

Expect the first peak around May 1:  Mexico's chief epidemiologist, José Luis Alomía, told the nation two days ago to expect the coronavirus peak to occur at the end of April or beginning of May.  Just as in the US, Mexican coronavirus policy is geared to "flatten the curve," by maintaining strict social distancing which, in Mexico will be in effect from March 23 until April 19.  "If we follow this (policy) with adequate intensity, to the letter, this epidemic spike could be lowered and lengthened over time," he said (click here for story in Reforma). 

Lack of Testing:  (from Reforma)  More than 200 Mexican scientists signed a letter asking the government to act more urgently to contain the epidemic, testing massively throughout the population to quickly detect new cases and slow down the transmission of the disease. They also urged the government to provide explicit and proactive direction to the citizenry and to allocate emergency resources to both the health system and the economy of the country.  (click here for story in Reforma)

According to the scientists who signed the letter, the federal government has delayed authorization for private labs to conduct testing for the virus.  Only two private firms are currently producing tests (they charge around $300-$400 US for each).  The 39 federal labs are not capable of handling the exponential growth of coronavirus cases.  The office responsible for authorizing private firms to produce the tests, the Institute for Diagnosis and Epidemiological Reporting (InDRE) reiterated that private laboratories must comply with strict quality guidelines in order to receive authorization.  Jaime Sepúlveda, Director of the Institute for Global Health Sciences at the University of California, San Francisco, however, when contacted by Reforma, (click here) said that many countries, such as China and South Korea, have devised independent tests that work well in detecting coronavirus.

President Lopez Obrador Not Social Distancing Photo Reuters found in Aljazeera (here)

President Lopez Obrador, until the last two or three days, has repeatedly downplayed the coronavirus situation in Mexico.  He has pointedly authorized photographs showing him mingling closely with crowds, and less than two weeks ago he repeated two soundbites from President Trump's notebook saying, "it is not so terrible,  Its not as bad as the flu."  In the past couple of days, however, he appears to have gotten the message, again following the lead from Trump, and is now following his nation's explicit cornoavirus policy of maintaining social distance.

My Take:  President Lopez Obrador appears to have taken his cues about dealing with coronavirus from the United States.  As in the US until now, widespread testing has not taken place in Mexico.  New Mexico, with a population of 2 million has tested almost 5000 people as of today, and has uncovered 57 positive cases.  Mexico, with a population of 128 million, as of Friday had tested only a little over 1000 and found as of today 251.  It is almost certain that community spread has been silently taking place, at what rate and where we cannot know because only widespread testing will tell us. If the spread has already reached the tipping point, nothing can stop hospitals from being overwhelmed, and a high proportion of people will contract the disease.  Governor Cuomo predicts 60-70% of New Yorkers will get the disease and this level doesn't seem out of line for what might be in store for Mexico, unless medicines will be quickly invented that relieve the symptoms and, eventually, a vaccine.  Recently the US and Mexico have talked about the border situation, and, following Trump's lead, the borders have been closed to pedestrians and auto travel, but not to trucks hauling commerce.  There appears to be little meaningful cross-border cooperation thus far between NM, TX, and Juárez to join forces against the disease.  Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

El Paso-Juárez-Southern Doña Ana County and Coronavirus  Please!

 Take the Lead from Governor Cuomo in New York and Start Making Common Cause Against Coronavirus:  How About a Joint Announcement by Officials Laying Out What steps the three Sub-regions Have Made in Common to Fight Coronavirus?

Opinion:

Appearing to show leadership, Mayor Dee Margo of El Paso a few days ago asserted the coronavirus crisis needs to be tackled from a regional level.  NorteDigital reported today (click here) that Margo met with Juárez Mayor Cabada on Thursday and told him Juárez should implement the same measures as El Paso to fight the pandemic and that Mexico was not taking the same precautionary steps as the US.  Cabada, in turn, asserted that he and Margo had agreed to view the pandemic from a regional perspective and had agreed to have officials meet to coordinate efforts on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

 I cannot vouch for NorteDigital's sketchy reporting of these events.  The report might or might not have conveyed what really went on.  Sensitive discussions between leaders should be kept confidential. But two major cities along the busiest border in the world face an unprecedented crisis which threatens the health and economic well-being of the 2 million-plus persons living here.  Citizens here, as everywhere else, are highly concerned.  Given the failure of the twenty-year-old US-Mexico Border Health Commission to lay out a framework and infrastructure for a common region-wide set of protocols in case of an epidemic, it falls on local officials to do the best they can under the circumstances.

How about organizing a virtual meeting--even if only through Skype--among the mayors of El Paso, Juarez, Las Cruces, Sunland Park, and the two Anthonys to discuss next steps to be taken in common throughout the region?  How about having health officials in all of these municipalities being present to update what they are doing and what their local needs might be?  This is precisely what Governor Cuomo and the governors of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Connecticut have done practically overnight:  exchanging information, explaining critical needs, coordinating common protocols.  How about the news media keeping these discussion confidential until agreements have actually been reached and announced simultaneously for us, the citizens, to know?  We can't control Washington or Mexico City, but we know our region and we can control our response to the crisis for better or worse.  Is any public official in the region--on either side--going to step up to the plate and make something good for all of us happen?

The Impact of Coronavirus on US-Mexico Trade In Juárez:

Update:  200 of 326 Maquila Plants in Juárez Affected by Supply Chain Interruptions

and Closures of  US Auto Manufacturing Plants

No Job Layoffs Yet, According to Maquila Association Index Juárez

A story written by Iris González in Diario today (click here) updates juarenses on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the maquila industry in Juárez, which employs over 300,000 workers.  Index Nacional (click here for information used in Diario Story), an association of maquila plants throughout Mexico, reports that 11 maquila plants have suffered from delays from supply providers in China.  Pedro Chavira, President of Index Juárez, is quoted in the article, that "until now the industrial sector (in Juárez) has not planned to lay off workers, although this might happen should automobile-parts plant closures take place here to to contain coronavirus, as has happened in the US"  (descarta que“hasta el momento el sector industrial contemple despido de personal, aunque sí podría replicarse en la localidad el cierre de plantas para contener el coronavirus como las armadoras lo hicieron en el vecino país”).

Note:  the carefully chosen words of Chavira suggest the maquila industry is hoping to reassure maquila workers in Juárez they still have their jobs, but the coronavirus pandemic might cause authorities or plant managers to lay off workers in Juárez in the future, as has happened in the US.

 Iris González goes on to calculate from Index Nacional data that so far the pandemic has mostly affected maquila plants in the electronic and auto industries, which together account for 200 of the 326 maquila plants in Juárez.  She points out that while Juárez does not have any auto assembly plants, Juárez maquilas do feed the industry with products such as brake linings and other mechanical products, and other parts of the industrial sector such as televisions, refrigerators, computers, and cell phones.

The economic as well as local health stakes of the pandemic are enormous for the people of Juárez.  We are not just talking about global trade here.  We are talking about the welfare of 1.3 million people who live within 60 miles of Las Cruces, New Mexico and a few hundred yards from El Paso, whose astounding growth has been driven in great part by what has been happening in the past three decades in its twin city just across the river.

Friday Noon Update

NM has Tested 3814 Persons, 43 Positives for Coronavirus

The First Cases in NM Were Detected 9 days ago

 

State of Chihuahua Now Has Capacity to Test 400 Persons for Coronavirus

Persons in Juárez Older than 65 are Urged To Stay in their Homes

But Oldies Must Still Be Jammed into a Room to Receive their Bank Cards

Testing in Chihuahua: Mayra Selene González, a reporter for Diario (click here and here) writes this morning that Chihuahua  state health officials now have the capability of testing 400 persons throughout the state for coronavirus.  The testing kits can handle up to 10 samples at a time.  Protocols for determining the priority of who gets tested were not revealed in the story.  

Elders Stay at Home; Children and Family Members Stay Away:  In a different article the reporter notes that state health officials in Chihuahua are urging persons older than 65 to remain in their homes, and for family and friends not to go to their homes, and not to bring children.

Don't Leave Home Except to Wait for Your Bank Card: Mayra Selene González notes that 45,000 older persons in Juárez have qualified for federal assistance provided through deposits to a bank card.  However, in spite of the coronavirus pandemic and guidelines for elderly persons not to leave home, the federal government still insists that those needing to receive new bank cards must go to a crowded room and wait their turn for their cards, as a recent photo demonstrates.

Elderly People in Juárez Waiting for Federal Assistance Bank Cards PHOTO DIARIO

Santa Fe Bridge in Downtown El Paso Will be Open Only to US Citizens or US Permanent Residents

No Word Yet on Santa Teresa or Other Bridges

Customs and Border Patrol will suspend crossings into the US except by US citizens and permanent residents.  The order was supposed to be initiated at midnight last night, but Carlos Barranco, a reporter for NorteDigital, wrote early this morning that as of 12:30 traffic on the bridge was normal.  So far there is no information about the pedestrian crossings at Zaragoza bridge, the Bridge of the Americas, Santa Teresa, or the Lerdo fast-lane downtown.

CBS reporter Weijia Jiang tweeted that President Trump is expected to announce the US-Mexico border will be closed down to non-essential traffic, but exempting trade, similar to the agreement with Canada.

Department of Health providing two COVID-19 screenings 
in Las Cruces
 
Testing people sick (not needing immediate medical attention)or who have recently traveled

SANTA FE – The New Mexico Department of Health (NMDOH)’s Public Health Division will be providing drive-thru COVID-19 coronavirus screening at the following two locations in Las Cruces:

Friday, March 20th
Las Cruces Public Health Office parking lot
1170 N. Solano (corner of Solano and Spruce)
9 a.m. – 3 p.m.  (or until supplies last)

Monday, March 23rd
Burrell College of Medicine parking lot
3501 Arrowhead Dr.
9 a.m. – 1 p.m. (or until supplies last)

Priority screening will be provided for the following:
· People experiencing symptoms of COVID-19 infection: fever, cough, or shortness of breath;
· People who have traveled from Europe (to include Italy), China, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Seattle, New York City, San Francisco, and Portland

It is critical to know before attending these screenings that those without symptoms of COVID-19 infection do not need testing for COVID-19. We are currently in allergy season, and having allergy symptoms such as sneezing, and itchy eyes, nose or throat is not an indication for testing.

Please try to limit two people per vehicle to avoid unnecessary risks for viral spread. No insurance is required for screening.

New Mexicans with health-related questions can call our coronavirus hotline at 855-600-3453. For non-health-related questions or concerns call 833-551-0518 or visit newmexico.gov, which is being updated and finalized as a one-stop source for information.

The state Department of Health will update its dedicated COVID-19 webpage​ with additional tests as the state lab provides results.

My Take on Today's News from Mexico

• The Mexican national government has admitted it has tested only  a bit more than 1000 persons for coronavirus, in a country with a population of 128 million.  So far they have uncovered 118 persons infected with coronavirus.  Over 10% of those tested were positive, an extremely high proportion, which probably means simply that Mexico has been testing only persons who have been traveling to countries with a high incidence of coronavirus, like China, South Korea, or Italy, and are therefore at high risk.   
• There are almost certainly thousands of persons who have had flu-like symptoms in Mexico without being tested, so nobody has any idea where there might be outbreaks of coronavirus in Mexico, let alone being able to estimate the range of persons who might already have the disease.  By contrast, New Mexico, with a population slightly over 2 million, has tested nearly three times as many people as all of Mexico (2797 as of this afternoon), finding 35 persons with the disease so far.
• According to Diario this morning (click here), quoting the state deputy director of epidemiology Gumaro Barrios, Chihuahua at this time has 40 kits, with a capability of providing 200 tests.  Four days ago Juárez had tested only 6 persons, and the entire state of Chihuahua had discovered only one case of coronavirus.
• All of this suggests strongly that we have no idea how many persons in the Paso del Norte region might have coronavirus. 
• The president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, swallowed his pride this morning and "celebrated" Donald Trump's decision not the close the US-Mexico border.   AMLO suggested the two countries would collaborate to fight coronavirus.  Everywhere else in the US, including the US-Canada border, leaders are imposing social isolation measures in the interests of our collective health. 
• The first act of regional leadership in the Paso del Norte Region was Republican Mayor Dee Margo, who held a press conference this afternoon and said we need to approach this as a regional issue, requiring a regional response, without supplying too many specifics. What, exactly are we going to do as a region to protect the health of all of us?  Who will be consulted?  Just what will citizens be asked to do?  Health providers throughout the region?  The private sector?  The maquilas? County governments?  City governments? Go ahead, Dee, take the lead.  Someone needs to.

The President of Mexico This Morning "Celebrated" President Trump's Decision 

Not to Close the US-Mexico Border

Reforma (click here) this morning reports that in his morning interview with the media President Manuel Lopez Obrador made the following statements:

(my translation):  (The US)" ...has treated us with respect, as always.  Just yesterday they did not make a unilateral move to close the border, and I celebrate that."  ("Se está hablando con el Gobierno de Estados Unidos, ellos han tenido un trato respetuoso, como siempre, con nosotros. No han tomado una medida unilateral de cierre de frontera, ayer mismo, y lo celebro", señaló el Mandatario durante su conferencia matutina en Palacio Nacional.)

President Lopez Obrador also said both countries agreed to take joint steps to combat the coronavirus pandemic.

Mexican Oil Prices Drop Precipitously

The Mexican Peso fell 20%

According to El Economista (click here) Mexican oil prices fell more than 22% yesterday, landing at just $14.54 (US) a barrel.  This is the lowest price in 18 years.  West Texas Intermediate oil prices--on which Mexican prices are pegged--bounced back today from a low of $20.37 yesterday to over $25 per barrel.  The Mexican peso fell yesterday from 20 to to about 24 pesos to the US dollar.

Coronavirus Update for Mexico:  Only 1000 Tests for the Virus Have Been Taken Nationwide
118 Cases of Coronavirus Have Been Detected

Each State Received Capabilities for Only 200 Tests

More tests on the Way

• El Economista (click here) reports this morning that only a little more than 1000 tests for coronavirus have been given as of yesterday an all of Mexico, with 118 of these testing positive.  The states received 6800 of 9000 tests available nationwide.  In addition, 35,000 tests will be distributed beginning today to the states.

Coronavirus Update March 19:  The Status of Testing in ABQ and Santa Fe
Coronavirus Testing Hotline Number is  855-600-3453
or Presbyterian Hospital's website:  www.phs.org

If You Think You Need a Test Go to the Hotline Now
28 Positive Cases Found as of Today in NM

An excellent article written by Jens Gould for the Santa Fe New Mexican can be accessed here
It is the best summary I've seen so far about the status of testing in Albuquerque and Santa Fe and it would be nice for someone to check out the status of testing in other areas of the state.

Some findings:

• Only persons who "need" testing can be tested, at least so far, due to the lack of laboratory ability to evaluate a large number of test samples.  Presbyterian Hospital defines "need" as someone who is exhibiting symptoms, presumably sore throat, coughing, and fever; or else have come in contact with someone who has tested positive; or has traveled to one of the no-no countries on the CDC list.  This screen will hardly catch all or even most of the people potentially infected, but it is a start.
• New Mexico at the time of Gould's writing, could handle only 600 tests per day, split between the state's own lab and the TriCore Reference lab in Albuquerque.  According the the NM Dept. of Health website as of this morning NM had tested 2354 cases, more, as far as we know, than El Paso or Juárez combined--the closest large urban area (population over 2 million) to most New Mexicans.
• TriCore is apparently the only lab in the state capable of evaluating test samples--but it is struggling to ramp up.  It has a machine that can evaluate a lot of tests, but it hasn't been able to purchase the necessary reagents to use if specifically for COVIS-19 tests and hasn't been able to purchase them from the pharmaceutical company Roche.  Note:  Roche, readers may recall, was mentioned a few days ago by President Trump as having agreed to help out the nation with more testing.  The TriCore machine is capable of running 1000 test samples in one batch.
• Note:  South Korea is capable of running 10,000 tests per day.  If New Mexico could do this we would be much clearer about how many persons have already been infected and have a clearer idea of what needs to be done.
• Lovelace hospital closed its drive-up site Monday due to overwhelming demand and limited resources. Some 50 cars were lined up around midday at the provider’s Santa Fe facility

My Take:  Four comments:

• New Mexicans understand the urgent need for testing, as evidenced by the long lines. Unfortunately the capability to satisfy this need in a timely fashion is highly limited, and this limitation is going to make the crisis much worse than it otherwise would have been. 
• The inability of state government and the private sector to  provide adequate testing in New Mexico at a time of need is not so much a failure of the state's health system as it is the overall failure of the federal government to have kept it's promise to Americans to protect the nation's health at a world-class level.  Much of what has happened is banana republic stuff, if you will pardon the expression. The state has done its best, at the helm of capable, concerned leadership, but a global pandemic must be dealt with at the national level, and the national health system let us down, beginning at the very top.
• A final accounting is premature at this point, but in spite of all the frustrations, our leaders from the Governor to our top health officials have managed to ramp up testing, to keep the public reasonably informed (the flow of information has been spotty, but this may be due partly to a lack of concern by news sources owned by distant corporations), and to ramp up our hospital capabilities as best we can.  I'm not quite sure what may be going on in El Paso and Juárez behind the scenes, but from what I have seen from available sources, New Mexico is well ahead of our closest neighbors to the South.
• Given our proximity to El Paso and Juárez, it would be nice to see evidence that we in the borderland region--Southern NM, El Paso, Juárez--are dealing with this pandemic the way Governor Cuomo has explained New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and New Jersey are cooperating with each other to help mitigate the potential spread of the virus, and share health resources available in the region.  A US-Mexico Border Health Commission was created twenty years ago with great fanfare to begin regional cooperation in health along the border.  Its home web page (click here) lists infectious diseases as a priority (under "commission activities," but there is no link to coronavirus except for a link to the generic CDC home page and the phone numbers listed were not answered and the mail boxes are full so I couldn't leave a message.  The CDC has a web page (click here) titled US-Mexico Border Health, with a nice picture of the urban swath that is El Paso-Juárez.  There is a link there about crossing your dog into Mexico, but there is no link to the coronavirus crisis.

The Coming Health Care Tsunami (Likely) in Cd. Juárez:  March 18, 2020

The Grim Statistics:  ABQ and Juárez Compared

From Diario, today (click here)

Juárez total Hospital Beds, public and private:   678;      Albuquerque:      1996*

Juárez total Intensive Care beds                          60;      Albuquerque        344**
Juárez total Intensive Care beds with ventilator    20;      Albuquerque       N/A

Greater Albuquerque, defined as the Albuquerque Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a population of about 915,000.  Cd. Juárez has a population of about 1.3 million.  Yet Albuquerque has well over twice as many hospital beds as Juárez, and almost six times as many intensive care beds.

If the proportion of people who get this disease is what epidemiologists call "light;"  that is, 20% of the total population (this was the Swine Flu's global reach a decade ago), and 10% of these will need hospitalization, (in New York Governor Cuomo said it was more like 17%--I'm being pretty conservative), you are talking about 26,000 persons needing hospitalizations in Juárez.  If 30% of those hospitalized need intensive care, this will require about 7800 intensive care hospital beds spread out over, say, six months.  If the average stay in intensive care is only 3 days, with no time spent between patients, and the need for beds is spread out evenly over six months, this will require 130 intensive care beds per day.  If there is a surge of cases, the intensive care system will be completely overwhelmed.  I'm not an expert in health care, I'm just doing some back-of-the envelope arithmetic based on what seem like reasonable assumptions about the scope of this pandemic.  We still don't know a lot about the disease, but we do know what happened in Italy in the past few weeks, and the experience there should alarm us, not just in Juárez and El Paso but in all of New Mexico as well.

So far we have no idea how many people may have the disease already in Juárez (or Albuquerque or El Paso, for that matter).  The only way we can find out is with massive testing, which, as far as we know, is not taking place in the region, and the only way we know how to slow down the spread--since asymptomatic persons can infect others--is through tight lockdowns and serious social isolation.  Given that El Paso and Juárez are part of the same urban swath, the same can be said of El Paso.  Whether the measures taken in these cities will be enough to "flatten the curve" will become clear soon enough.

* AHD.Com (click here)
 **NM in Depth (click here)

Updates on Coronavirus in New Mexico:  March 18

An Argument for Mass Testing for Coronavirus
Why Mass Testing Might be Needed for the Paso del Norte Border Region

Prof. Luigi Zingales is Robert C. McCormack Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, and Charles M. Harper Faculty Fellow at the University of Chicago.  He is not a health care expert, but has studied extensively in Italy, where he grew up.  He posted this in the ProMarket blog this morning (click here).  I can't comment on the reliability of his post, but, if true, it is relevant to t how our health care system responds to the current coronavirus crisis, and particularly here on the US-Mexico border.  Readers might also want to review various statements made recently by experts about the importance of asymptomatic spread of the virus in an article by Elizabeth Cohen for CNN (click here).  It tends to confirm Zingales' argument.

According to Zingales more than 50 percent of COVID-19 cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and in Vo'Euganeo, a small town near Padua, Italy, were asymptomatic.  If true, not only in those two limited cases, but here today in the US, the statistic has far-reaching and urgent implications for how the public health system should respond to the coronavirus crisis.

If a large proportion of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic, and if health officials are testing only those with symptoms, then there are a lot of persons walking around believing they are fine but spreading the disease.  And the evidence appears to be strong that asymptomatic persons can spread the disease (see the CNN article above).

Zingales asserts that in Vo'Euganeo by order of the Governor of Veneto all 3341 persons were tested for coronavirus after the first death occurred, persons who tested positive were isolated.  A two-week lockdown was ordered for the entire village.  Before the lockdown 3 percent of the town was infected.  After the lockdown all persons were tested again and only 0.25% were infected.  Once these few infected people were isolated, the town reopened and has experienced no new cases.

By contrast, on the Diamond Princess, one passenger who had symptoms was tested, and was quarantined.  After that passengers and crew were tested only after showing symptoms, and only after testing positive were they taken off the boat.  Only toward the end did authorities test all passengers.  What had started with one passenger infected, ended up with 20% of the people on board.

In one case, argues Zingales, we go from 3% for none; in the other case we go from 1 person to a 20 percent infection rate, with mass testing being the major difference.

Again, Zingales is not an epidemiologist nor an expert on health care, but the CNN article seems to confirm from true experts that asymptomatic persons can spread the virus.

Paso del Norte

President Trump today agreed with Canada to close the border to people, but not to commerce.  He may do the same with Mexico.  But if a even a small proportion of the population (say, 1%) has the virus but, of these, a significant proportion (say, 35%) is asymptomatic and therefore not tested, we are likely to have a rapid regional spread across the borders, probably in both directions, even with a closing of the border to all but truck traffic.  There may be more going on than I know about, but so far the evidence suggests that both Juarez and El Paso and Las Cruces have been testing only people with symptoms and possibly only high-risk persons with symptoms.  If the rate of infection from non-symptomatic persons is significant, we should be testing massively in this region to begin to understand the true dimensions of the spread of the disease.  This understanding would have serious implications about the kinds of policies needed to stem the disease and take care of those who are hit more severely with pneumonia and other complications.  And we don't have a lot of time, since the virus spreads very rapidly.

Regional, cross-border cooperation could help in understanding the true dimensions of the disease.  So far there is no indication that cooperation is taking place.

What Proportion of the US Population Will Get Coronavirus?

Charts Show NM, Las Cruces, El Paso Will Likely Run Out of Hospital Beds

Unless We All "Flatten the Curve" Now

What About Cd. Juárez? 

NM in Depth (click here) found a ProPublica study (click here) based on data from the Harvard Global Health Institute, showing the hospital bed situation under different scenarios on a map of the United States.  It is sobering, especially for much of the country West of Texas, and reminds us how important our personal behavior, today and for the next few weeks, will affect "flattening the curve" enough to avoid the kinds of shortages of beds for those needing top-notch care.

First a little background:

How many of us will get the virus?  We don't know.  We do know that the potential is very high.  Swine flu, just a decade ago, was contracted by one of every five persons on the planet:  20%.  Testing numbers are still far too limited to give us a better picture of what is happening and where.  Governor Cuomo, on national television two days ago, presumably after consulting with top experts,  projected 40%-60% of New Yorkers will get coronavirus, .  In the Harvard study the projections on hospital beds were based on three scenarios:  in the "light" category 20% will contract the disease; in the "moderate" category 40% of us will come down with it, and in the "severe" category 60% of us will get it.

How fast the virus spreads is important:  Governor Cuomo expects the disease to "peak" in New York in about 45 days.  That is just six weeks from now.  New York's hospital bed capacity will not be up to the demand for treatment by that time.  He called on President Trump to mobilize the Army Corps of Engineers to build hospital capacity in the next 45 days.  If you look at the maps (click on the links above), which have gone viral (no pun intended) on the internet today, you will see that if the disease spreads relatively quickly over the next six months and if 20% of New Mexicans get the disease, we will have a severe shortage of beds.  If 40% of us get the disease in 6 months most of the entire US will face severe bed shortages, and we will be like Northern Italy is today.  If you've been watching the news, you've seen that the curve of spread in the US looks almost identical to the early curve in Italy.  If something doesn't happen now we will look like Italy in only about 3 or 4 weeks or possibly sooner--we can't know because we haven't tested enough.  We can only look at our trajectory and compare it to Italy's, and it is scary.

We Can Control Some of the Outcomes, But We Have to Act Quickly:  One of the key takeaways from these maps and charts is that our behavior today will affect both the total incidence of the disease in the next few months, and the timing of the peaks throughout the country.  To prevent our health system, rickety as it is already, from being overwhelmed by sheer numbers of patients, we need to act now, through social isolation, to slow down the spread of the disease.  The more sloppy we are about limiting our contact with people, the faster the virus will spread, which is to say, the more people will come down with it before our health care system can ramp up to handle it.

What About Cd. Juarez?  Over two million persons live within 50 miles of Las Cruces, El Paso with over 800,000 and Juárez with about 1.3 million.  Evidence strongly suggests that neither Juárez nor El Paso have been testing adequately, so there have only been a handful of people detected so far with the virus.  That doesn't mean that the virus just arrived this week. About $110 billion of goods cross the border in this region in both directions each year, much of it in trucks.  Thousands of pedestrians, particularly from the Juárez side, have walked across the bridge to go shopping.  If one trucker or business person, say, from New York, who had the virus but wasn't sick enough to stay home wandered into a maquila plant in Juarez and infected someone there a month ago, the virus is now spreading quickly in Juárez, undetected, and almost certainly has crossed over the bridge into El Paso. And vice versa. El Paso or Santa Teresa may have infected Juárez.  Only massive testing will tell us how bad it is in this area, and we are not there yet.

If you look at the airport schedule for the Juárez International Airport for today (click here), you will see that 12 flights are expected to arrive from Mexico City, and 13 from other parts of Mexico.  The Mexican President less than two weeks ago declared that "getting coronavirus is not terrible; it's like catching a cold "(see my blog below for sourcing)--two of Donald Trump's own talking points around that time.  The El Paso International Airport is much busier than Juarez's.  Today 51 flights are expected to arrive in El Paso (click here), from all parts of the US., including one from Seattle, where the disease is rampant, 5 from Denver, where testing is reasonably good and shows a a hot spot for the virus, and 3 from Atlanta, another hot spot. Are we heading to the "light" 20% level?  The 40% level?  The 60% level for the disease?  We can't know yet.  But we know the virus is spreading quickly and our only weapon right now is social isolation.

Coronavirus Update March 17

Cd. Juárez Confirms One Case of Coronavirus

State of Chihuahua Closes all Schools from K-9

**NorteDigital (click here) reports late this morning that a 29 year old man in Juárez has been tested positive for the coronavirus.  He had recently traveled to Europe, including Italy.  Two other persons have been tested and are awaiting the results.  

 

 Note:  from this report it would appear that Juárez has been testing only persons who have recently traveled abroad or, perhaps, to areas in Mexico already infected.  If this were true, it would mean that the virus, if it entered Juárez from other places, arriving, say, by bus or truck, might be spreading undetected through populations that are unaware of the danger.  Only extensive testing can determine the extent of infection in Juárez, and it appears this is not happening, or at least has not been happening until now.

 

**Chihuahua Secretary of Public Education Carlos Herrera announced this morning (click here) that beginning on Monday all "basic level" (first grade through ninth grade) schools would close, teachers in high schools and universities will prepare to resume their jobs at home.  As it stands now this involves 1.1 million children and 70,000 teachers.

Coronavirus Update:  March 17

New Mexico: 

Testing is ramping up.  As of this morning the NM Dept. of Health (click here) reports 1270 tests so far.  On March 14 they had tested only 247 persons.  We won't know how serious things are in New Mexico until a lot more people are tested, but from the publicly available information, New Mexico appears to be well ahead of El Paso and Cd. Juárez in preparation.  Governor Michelle chewed out the President on a phone call that was recorded when he told a group of governors they were on their own as far as stocking up on ventilators.  What good is an expensive federal health care system when it fails in an emergency?

Comment:  Governor Cuomo sobered up the entire nation when he revealed that if the current rate of spread continues 40%-60% of New Yorkers will contract coronavirus, and so far about 17% of those who get it need hospitalization, while NY only has 50,000 beds available.  For a few moments Cuomo was a substitute President, the entire nation watching, and he delivered the mail.

El Paso

In Texas the state health department acknowledged the presence of coronavirus only on March 11.  Today the map (click here) shows spreading in Dallas, Houston and other spots.  I have had a hard time finding information about the total number of tests given.  Governor Gregg Abbot said yesterday "By the end of this week, everyone who needs a COVID-19 test will get a COVID-19 test."  But it is not clear what he meant by "everyone who needs a COVID-19 test:  all persons who have symptoms?  only those who are known to have traveled to hotspots abroad or on cruise ships with the virus?  That would not be enough.  El Paso has closed down all schools, including private and charter schools, and in the past few days local and state governments have seemed to wake up to the severity of the crisis.  But there has been none of the urgency in public statements by top officials that we have sensed in Governor Lujan-Grisham or in Governor Cuomo, and even less so in Cd. Juárez right across the river.  Hopefully more is going on behind the scenes.  Both El Paso and Juárez appear to be followers, not leaders, in this crisis.

Colorado

As of Sunday, there are 131 confirmed cases.  A drive-through testing facility in Denver has tested more than 650 persons in the past week.  Dozens of school districts have closed down.  All in all Colorado appears to be ahead of Texas, and the state clearly has done more testing, so they have more positive cases than New Mexico or Texas.  It is still not clear whether the virus has infected a higher proportion of the population than New Mexico.  Governor Jared Polis yesterday ordered the closure of dine-in services at restaurants and bars throughout the state.  Gyms, casinos, theaters, coffeehouses, cigar bars, brewpubs, and distilleries are closed.  Provisional grade:  Colorado is keeping up with Governor Michelle but may be well ahead of New Mexico in terms of the extent of testing so far.

Cd. Juárez

So far, the feds just don't seem to get it:  according to a story in Diario this morning (click here) the federal government will still insist on the ceremonial delivery of bank cards to elderly persons who qualify for public assistance.  Since March 8, when the severity of the threat of coronavirus was quite clear, the government has delivered about 5000 bank cards to elderly persons, but they have had to go to a building that congregates more than 200 persons in one room.  No disinfectants are available, no masks, no directives to avoid person to person contact--recommendations long since given by the federal health agency.  The federal delegate to the state of Chihuahua, Carlos Loera de la Rosa told Diario "my instructions are to suspend gatherings of over 5000 persons, and here there are only about 500 persons."

 
 Folks gathered in Juárez to receive federal assistance bank cards:  Picture by Diario

New Mexico Political Report Bulletin This Afternoon:

Socorro Couple with Coronavirus Went About Their Business in Socorro for Days

CDC Failed to Inform them They Should Be Tested After Returning From a Cruise Ship With Coronavirus

Click here for story 

US Representative Deb Haaland at a Congressional Oversight Committee:   “Nobody notified the state or the health department about them being on a cruise ship where coronavirus was found. So they were in New Mexico, just doing their normal everyday life for ten entire days before the state was alerted to have them tested, and it turned out they were positive.  “We’re of course worried. In a small town like that (Socorro), the virus could spread pretty rapidly.” 

 As of press time, says NM Political Report, there are currently no known cases of COVID-19 in Socorro beyond the initial couple.

Where Was CDC?

New Mexico Coronavirus Update:  March 16

New Mexico 

The state is still not testing for coronavirus at a level needed to estimate how many persons are infected here, a baseline essential for assessing the spread of the disease as it cuts its swath across New Mexico.  As of this morning, the NM Dept. of Health (click here) shows only 583 persons have been tested.  This means that about 336 were tested in the last two days, but this is not near enough of a sample to understand the true extent of the presence of the virus in the state.  There are now 17 cases of coronavirus detected in the state.  We have no idea how many persons actually have the disease, because we only started highly limited testing in the past few days.  Hopefully, testing on a large scale is now taking place, and we should be informed in the next few days of how seriously NM has become infected. According to many reliable sources the amount of testing being conducted right now will be a major determinant of how many people will die of the disease or be permanently injured.  There are a lot of other factors that will go into the death toll, but right now this one is the most critical.  We need to ramp up for the spike in patients that will take place, perhaps as early as the next two or three weeks, and this includes more doctors, nurses, hospital beds, ventilators, etc.  But right this minute we need more testing, while others ramp up for the patients to come.

Having said this, New Mexico appears to be ahead of El Paso and Juárez in testing.  Juárez newspapers and government officials are still saying or insinuating that the disease is not present in the city.  This is almost certainly false.  Local newspapers report only a miniscule number of tests (possibly only 6 cases as of yesterday), all of them negative.  Yesterday the Feria del Mole took place in the Central Park, but from the pictures of empty spaces in supermarkets for toilet paper, it looks like juarenses are beginning to catch on to the need for social isolation, regardless of what their politicians tell them.  And in El Paso Dee Margo held a press conference to confirm two cases so far detected in El Paso, without revealing how much testing is going on in that city.  Since they have a CDC lab, hopefully, a lot of testing is going on.  And a photo in the El Paso Times this morning (click here) shows the mayor at the press conference with what looks like about a dozen people in proximity surrounding him, a lot closer than 6 ft. from each other.  Not a good sign to convey to 700,000 elpasoans who need to understand what is happening.

With urban populations of 2 million persons living just 40-60 miles from Las Cruces, and well over $100 billion in commerce crossing our borders each year via rail and truck, our greatest vulnerability to the spread of coronavirus right now, is likely to come from the South, not from other areas of New Mexico, unless things are really really bad in Albuquerque.  We just don't know.

Mexico:  The Coronavirus Cumbia and the Cornavirus Corrido

Easily Within the Top 20 Global Music Markets, Mexican Musicians Claim a Piece of the Coronavirus Music Market

Quickly climbing up the global music market rankings, and surpassed in Latin America only by Brazil, Mexico has become a global musical powerhouse in this $20 billion business.  And while public musical events are likely to be scarce in the coming months, the curfews may actually increase revenues from streaming, since music consumers can listen at home to their favorite stuff without fear of contagion.

When you get cabin fever, turn to one of these:

As of today there are at least two YouTube versions of Mexico-produced songs about the coronavirus.  One is the Coronavirus Cumbia (click here), and the other, made by a norteño trio (click here), is the Corrido de Coronavirus, sung by a group calling itself the Tres Tristes Tigres.

Some of the Lyrics of the Corrido: (note:  some of the words in the song are dirty)

El pinche coronavirus a todos sacó de quicio
La gente anda paniqueada, ya nadie hace caso omiso
Como ya le dio a Tom Hanks pos creen que ya valió Wilson

Coronavirus and Cd. Juárez Update March 15 2020

State of Chihuahua Announces Massive Events in Juárez Will Not be Suspended

This Would Endanger El Paso, Juárez, and Doña Ana County

New Mexico and El Paso Are Scapegoated in Official Statement

Coronavirus is a Regional Cross-Border Threat

Let's Hope Regional Cooperation is Going on Behind the Scenes

  

Just as New Mexico and Texas are beginning to show signs of waking up to the spread of coronavirus, after a serious delay in massive testing to locate the spread of the virus in the US and in Mexico, the state of Chihuahua has just punted, and in a way that could put New Mexicans and Texans, as well as juarenses, at risk.

 

Ramon Galindo Noriega, former mayor of Juárez and former federal Senator, announced yesterday in his capacity as the current sub-secretary of Social Development for the state, that he has orders, presumably from the Governor of Chihuahua, " to continue with the normal schedule, given that health officials evaluate the situation daily."  In effect, this means that the Feria del Mole today will take place in the Central Park, in the middle of the city, as well as other massive gatherings on Monday the 23rd and Saturday the 28th.

Galindo did leave the door open for cancellation: "We want to be very responsible and we are considering all options so as not to endanger peoples' health.  Dr. Arturo Valenzuela is who will inform us daily, and he will "indicate" when mass gatherings should be cancelled."

 

What is particularly irritating is this insinuation in an official statement:

 

"In spite of the epidemiological alert due to the closeness of positive cases of coronavirus Covid-19 in Albuquerque, New Mexico and El Paso, in Cd. Juárez state authorities have decided to maintain normal social activities."

 

What?  New Mexico has as of this morning (click here) tested 495 persons for coronavirus.  While NM should by now have tested at least ten times as many persons to begin to understand it's status, this appears from all public announcements to be far more than have been tested in Juárez, where all we know is that 6 persons who traveled to Covid-19 hotspots have tested negative, and I still can't find an answer to how many tests have been taken in El Paso.  We don't know who might be spreading the virus to whom.  But does it matter?  New Mexico, West Texas, and Chihuahua have every reason to cooperate in trying to contain the spread of coronavirus.  Just as New Mexico and El Paso have begun to seriously curtail mass gatherings, Chihuahua apparently takes a risky step backwards.

My hunch?  The Feria del Mole will not take place today.  The maquila industry will make a few calls to Governor Javier Corral.  Paso del Norte can't let the hateful statements of a weirdo president divide us when all of our regional interests coincide.  I also suspect that behind the scenes, officials in El Paso and Juárez are talking.  I just hope NM is in on these talks, too.