Tuesday, March 10, 2020

COVID-19, New Mexico, and the Paso del Norte Region


Bottom Line:  There appears to be limited information available about the coronavirus situation in the Paso del Norte region, which includes Doña Ana County, El Paso, and Cd. Juárez.
  • We don't really know if testing is going on in Las Cruces, or how many possible tests are available; we do know that if tests for coronavirus are given here, they will be sent to Albuquerque for evaluation.  The turnaround time for it has not been widely disseminated.  If you have flu symptoms we don't know where you can definitely be tested in Las Cruces.  There may be protocols for tests to be given in some order of priority, but as far as I can tell these have not been announced.
  • We know that El Paso has the lab capacity, part of the CDC network, to test for the virus.  The turnaround time for the test is 72 hours.  We don't know if testing in El Paso has started or how many persons are expected to be tested in the next few days, or what the protocols might be.
  • We know that Cd. Juárez has tested at least a few persons for coronavirus, and, according to official statements, the results so far have been negative.  We don't know how much testing for coronavirus is going on in Cd. Juárez.  We have been told in the media that the turnaround time in Mexico for coronavirus testing is only two days (48 hours?), compared to the 72 hours for testing in El Paso.
  • There have been only 59 tests for coronavirus in New Mexico as a whole.  All have been negative.  We don't know exactly when widespread testing will be available, but until we have a much larger sample size we will not know what the situation really is.  New Mexico is surrounded by states that have tested positive for the virus.
  • We don't know the availability of tests in New Mexico by geographic region.
  • Coronavirus apparently is most contagious in the earliest phases, even before any symptoms arrive.  From the experience so far in China it is not contagious in the later stages of the disease, but I'm not sure whether that means someone recovering from coronavirus loses the ability to infect someone else, or whether someone nearing the peak severity of the disease is still infectious.  Gestation period between being infected and showing symptoms is between 2 days and 14 or 15 days, with some outliers as high as 27 days
  • A United States-Mexico Border Health Commission, a binational body, was created in July 2000 in order to identify and evaluate the health problems that affect the population living on the border, as well as facilitating actions to deal with them.  I could find no information at their website last night about the coronavirus situation on the US-Mexico border.
  • The Paso del Norte region has well over two million people, including El Paso, Juárez, and Southern Doña Ana County.  Coronavirus does not respect the border, or the wall that is being built.  In this region the disease is most likely to be spread by trucks or vehicles crossing the US-Mexico border, or by pedestrians crossing the border.  If it arrives at El Paso International Airport, and begins to spread, it will be only a matter of time until it spreads throughout the region, unless a rigorous testing protocol is in place.
  • From what I have seen in the news media, people over 65, and especially those with heart disease and/or a pulmonary condition like asthma or COPD are the most vulnerable.  People outside those categories should not over-react, but be aware that some persons do die from the disease at much earlier ages.
  • I apologize for not footnoting my sources.  I am trying to get this out quickly, with as much information as I can gather as a common citizen, spending a couple of hours trying to find out about the situation here on the border.  I may be incorrect or about some of the information I am presenting, and some of it may be outdated, so don't take this post as being definitive.  Look for information yourself to confirm or deny what is posted.  I'm sure some of the uncertainties listed above will be addressed in the next few days.  I will keep looking and will provide some useful websites shortly.

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