March 14 New Mexico Coronavirus Update:

Where Are We this Saturday?

Note:  I am not an expert in epidemiology or health care.  I am aiming to summarize what I have found from readily available news sources, as a common citizen, and commenting where I feel I know enough to comment.

Where are we with coronavirus in Santa Fe, Albuquerque, Las Cruces, El Paso, and Cd. Juárez?  El Paso and Juárez are not in New Mexico but they are within coughing distance of New Mexico.  The best news is that the capacity for testing everywhere appears to be up.  But NM and the 2 million people directly South of Las Cruces have been fiddling nervously up to now, without serious testing capabilities as the disease spreads across the region with little detection. We still don't really know what levels of coronavirus exist in NM or in the neighboring communities of El Paso and Juárez.  The lack of ICU beds and respirators and ventilators in NM is also scary, (see an excellent story here by Bryant Furlow for New Mexico in Depth) especially if we get an early surge in cases before the system ramps up.  The NM Dept of Health shows (click here) a total of 247 tests as of noon today have been taken in NM, with 10 showing positive.  The 247 tests are not nearly enough to assess the overall situation in the state, but it is a lot better than what appears to be the case in El Paso and Juárez so far (combined they  have as many people as the whole state of NM), and it should not be long before we learn useful information about the extent of the spread in the state.  Bottom line:  NM is catching up in data capabilities to understand the spread of the disease, but Juárez and El Paso, with a combined population equal to New Mexico's, and only 40 miles farther from Santa Fe than Las Cruces, are if anything less informed about the state of the disease in their locales than NM.

Cd. Juárez:  Bottom line:  we don't know the extent of coronavirus spread in Cd. Juarez

Diario this morning (click here) has an exceptionally lucid story about the normal rate of contagion in that city of non-coronavirus flu-like illnesses.  So far this year, if the annual averages recorded by health officials are typical, there might be around 4800 cases of "acute respiratory" infections in the population.  But only six cases of suspected coronavirus infection, according to the state health agency, have actually been tested in a laboratory.  None so far has proven positive.  This does not mean coronavirus is absent from the population.  It just means that six persons who were at high risk (this is why they were tested!)--recently traveled to China or South Korea, or Italy, for example--have not brought back the virus with them.  With only 6 announced tests, in a global city with an international airport receiving many flights per day from global city Mexico City (population 20+ million), however, we have no idea how many of the people with flu-like symptoms in Juárez might have the virus.  We would have to test an adequate sample of these estimated 4800 cases to know how many people in Juárez might have contracted the disease.  We await more information

It would be nice to have someone with reliable data in New Mexico tell us what the Juárez paper this morning reported: a ball park figure of how many people in the state are likely to be suffering, or have suffered, from flu-like symptoms.  This would give us a base to determine how many tests we might need of that population to calculate a ball-park estimate of where we are today with the virus in the state.  I'm sure some folks in NM are looking at this, but the public should be aware of the issue so as not to be falsely reassured; many New Mexicans, given what the news media are reporting, believe we only have 10 persons in the entire state who have contracted it.  The likely number is higher, and spreading quickly at least until the latest public measures taken by the Governor and other public officials begin to take hold. Citizens must do their share, but governments have a responsibility to give citizens the information they need, good news or bad, to make informed decisions about how best to exercise their civic as well as private responsibilities.

El Paso:  Bottom Line:  apparently as clueless as Juárez about the possibe level or spread

Last night the first positive test of coronavirus was announced.  The El Paso Times story (click here), however, indicates that only three tests (!) were performed yesterday, and of these three one tested positive.  This suggests El Paso is possibly as far behind in testing as is Juárez, although El Paso is one of 120 CDC labs throughout the country certified to conduct the tests.  Hopefully, the capacity to test is now adequate--the CDC appears finally to have reliable tests in large numbers.  Until I learn more about the situation in El Paso, I will conclude we have no idea of the incidence of coronavirus in that city.  That, plus the situation in Juárez, is troubling for Dona Ana County, just up the road from Juarez and El Paso.  With only limited testing having been conducted in Las Cruces, and an unknown situation south of here, we don't know whether we might have been infected by travelers (truck drivers, for example, who had the virus)  The good news in both El Paso and Juarez is that for an individual with symptoms, testing appears now to be widely available.  I'm not sure what, if anything, has been happening at the regional (Paso del Norte) cross-border level, to share information, resources, and expertise.  This hasn't been widely covered in the news media.  A binational border health commission was created 20 years ago, but I have seen nothing that would indicate a region-wide approach.  As many have commented, coronavirus doesn't respect the border, beautiful big wall or no beautiful big wall.

Las Cruces:  Bottom Line:  Clueless about the level or spread, but testing is under way and is available.  I know of at least one person this past week who had symptoms and was able immediately to be tested.  The swab was sent to Albuquerque and it came back negative.  My guess is that persons with flu-like symptoms will have no trouble getting a quick test and if serious complications arise, at least up to now there appear to be enough beds and equipment:  in a surge, though, watch out.

Albuquerque:  Bottom Line:  the scientific community (click here for story in NM Political Report) appear to have stepped up to the plate:  testing is available apparently from various sources, private and public.  Lovelace Medical Center has begun a drive-up testing facility which opened up last night.  Other drive-up testing will be available with other health care providers, according to an ABQ Journal report this morning.  Hotlines are in place with hospitals.  We still don't have a clear view of how many people in the ABQ Metro area may have flu-like symptoms, or who have been tested for coronavirus, but this should be coming soon, given the relatively strong testing capabilities in Albuquerque.  The greatest danger might be the availability of beds, respirators, and qualified personnel, in case of an early surge in cases.

Santa Fe:  There are three known cases of coronavirus in Santa Fe, out of 10 so far uncovered in the state.  The city's web site seems to be lagging behind in its updates, and it appears difficult to find out what might be going on.  There is, however, a lot of information from the schools about shut-downs and other coronavirus-related information.  The two major hospitals, St. Vincent and Presbyterian, have very limited information about the local situation.  I could find no information about the extent of testing, drive-ups, etc.

This report is incomplete, and I may have missed some sources of useful information.  It is, however, the result of a concerted effort to update the situation as it stands in NM today, March 14.