Mexico's National Coronavirus Policy, Late March 2020

Same Mistakes With Testing As the US

President Lopez Obrador Follows Trump's Lead in Downplaying the Disease

Health Officials in Mexico Alarmed About Slow Response, Lack of Testing
New Mexico Has Tested More People  than Mexico

Expect the first peak around May 1:  Mexico's chief epidemiologist, José Luis Alomía, told the nation two days ago to expect the coronavirus peak to occur at the end of April or beginning of May.  Just as in the US, Mexican coronavirus policy is geared to "flatten the curve," by maintaining strict social distancing which, in Mexico will be in effect from March 23 until April 19.  "If we follow this (policy) with adequate intensity, to the letter, this epidemic spike could be lowered and lengthened over time," he said (click here for story in Reforma). 

Lack of Testing:  (from Reforma)  More than 200 Mexican scientists signed a letter asking the government to act more urgently to contain the epidemic, testing massively throughout the population to quickly detect new cases and slow down the transmission of the disease. They also urged the government to provide explicit and proactive direction to the citizenry and to allocate emergency resources to both the health system and the economy of the country.  (click here for story in Reforma)

According to the scientists who signed the letter, the federal government has delayed authorization for private labs to conduct testing for the virus.  Only two private firms are currently producing tests (they charge around $300-$400 US for each).  The 39 federal labs are not capable of handling the exponential growth of coronavirus cases.  The office responsible for authorizing private firms to produce the tests, the Institute for Diagnosis and Epidemiological Reporting (InDRE) reiterated that private laboratories must comply with strict quality guidelines in order to receive authorization.  Jaime Sepúlveda, Director of the Institute for Global Health Sciences at the University of California, San Francisco, however, when contacted by Reforma, (click here) said that many countries, such as China and South Korea, have devised independent tests that work well in detecting coronavirus.

President Lopez Obrador Not Social Distancing Photo Reuters found in Aljazeera (here)

President Lopez Obrador, until the last two or three days, has repeatedly downplayed the coronavirus situation in Mexico.  He has pointedly authorized photographs showing him mingling closely with crowds, and less than two weeks ago he repeated two soundbites from President Trump's notebook saying, "it is not so terrible,  Its not as bad as the flu."  In the past couple of days, however, he appears to have gotten the message, again following the lead from Trump, and is now following his nation's explicit cornoavirus policy of maintaining social distance.

My Take:  President Lopez Obrador appears to have taken his cues about dealing with coronavirus from the United States.  As in the US until now, widespread testing has not taken place in Mexico.  New Mexico, with a population of 2 million has tested almost 5000 people as of today, and has uncovered 57 positive cases.  Mexico, with a population of 128 million, as of Friday had tested only a little over 1000 and found as of today 251.  It is almost certain that community spread has been silently taking place, at what rate and where we cannot know because only widespread testing will tell us. If the spread has already reached the tipping point, nothing can stop hospitals from being overwhelmed, and a high proportion of people will contract the disease.  Governor Cuomo predicts 60-70% of New Yorkers will get the disease and this level doesn't seem out of line for what might be in store for Mexico, unless medicines will be quickly invented that relieve the symptoms and, eventually, a vaccine.  Recently the US and Mexico have talked about the border situation, and, following Trump's lead, the borders have been closed to pedestrians and auto travel, but not to trucks hauling commerce.  There appears to be little meaningful cross-border cooperation thus far between NM, TX, and Juárez to join forces against the disease.  Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.