Update:  Comparing Mexico and New Mexico:  Coronavirus

Comparisons:  Mexico has a population of about 128 million.  New Mexico has a population of 2 million.  From data provided in Diario this morning (click here), Mexico has tested 8841 persons (less than one in ten thousand), as of a day or two ago.  Out of these, 1094 (12.8%) have tested positive, and 2752 persons are awaiting results. (Note:  there has been some testing in the private sector, but as I understand it, these numbers are not necessarily included in the above count)

New Mexico has tested 12,527 persons (almost 60 out of ten thousand) as of this morning's update from the NM Dept. of Health (click here).  Out of these, 281 (2.2%) have tested positive.

Testing:  In both cases--especially Mexico--only those persons with a reasonable chance of having the disease--in the case of Mexico, only who have traveled abroad or who have contacted someone with a confirmed case of the virus have been tested.  In New Mexico in most cases only persons with symptoms have been tested--where and when tests were available.  

A relatively high proportion of coronavirus victims show no symptoms--as many as 50%, in some tested populations, much less in others.  Asymptomatic persons can, however, spread the disease.  Someone getting off a plane from China in Mexico City, who tested positive for the virus may have infected numerous unidentifiable persons at the airport before being tested; if some of these showed no symptoms, they were almost certainly not tested, and may well have been spreading the virus, which spreads with lightning speed.  Likewise, in New Mexico someone who caught the virus but showed no symptoms would not have been eligible for testing.  Those persons may well have been spreading the virus without knowing it.

Bottom line:  We don't know what proportion of Mexicans or New Mexicans have the virus because we haven't sampled people randomly, who show no symptoms.

Comment:  New Mexico is a lot closer to understanding the spread of the virus because we've tested more persons than all of Mexico.  And Governor Lujan-Grisham's stated desire to test all New Mexicans speaks well for her desire to find out as quickly as possible what the situation looks like:  are we infected to a degree where we will become New York?  Do we still have time to prepare?  Will our hospitals be able to handle the load?  We won't know until we test extensively or until it's too late to do much about it.  I suspect we will have some ballpark models of where we are in the next few days.  But even if it is already too late in New Mexico for now, extensive testing will give us a good idea of the second wave that experts believe will come, perhaps late this year.  Mexico, on the other hand, is almost completely blind, and unless they very quickly ramp up their capabilities to test extensive portions of the population they may end up easily like New York.  The delays of President Lopez Obrador and his federal government to try to catch up to the virus are tantamount to giving the virus a strong head start.