Chihuahua State Continues Policy of Coronavirus Phase I

Assumes Little Community Spread

But Chihuahua Has Tested Only the Very Most Likely to Have the Virus

Not Tested Frequent Border Crossers

So Chihuahua has no Clue Whether there is Community Spread

As of This Morning All of Mexico Has Tested 1983 Persons, 316 positive

New Mexico has tested  5386 Persons, 65 positive

Officials in Chihuahua announced this morning (click here) that Chihuahua continues in phase I of coronavirus.  In phase I testing for is given only to persons with symptoms who have recently traveled abroad.  It was less than a week ago that 400 tests were made available in Chihuahua. The assumption is that the virus is being imported from abroad, and has not yet achieved community contagion.  It is unclear how strictly testing occurs for all persons in contact with the infected traveler, or whether testing occurs only after someone in contact with the traveler shows symptoms. But a significantly high proportion of transmissions (some estimates go as high as 50%) come from persons who show no symptoms.  If these persons are not tested, they may well be spreading the virus undetected within the community.  And we know the virus spreads quickly. 

Chihuahua and Juárez have been shutting down public events for more than a week, a tacit admission that the state has already reached phase II, in which community spread is ongoing or, in this case because of little testing, that it might be going on.  In phase II public events are shut down, and social distancing begins.  But testing in Chihuahua is still at the phase I level.  This means the state is completely clueless about the extent of community spread and will be until extensive testing is done.  And public health measures to shut down all non-essential businesses or keep them open only with persons working from home, are not in place.  There appears to have been no interruption in maquiladora operations in Juarez except for those caused by supply chain shortages.  You can't put together a refrigerator or car part from home.  And two out of three jobs in Juárez are in the maquila sector.  This is a tough, painful call for authorities to make in Juárez.

Juárez Downtown Yesterday Afternoon PHOTO DIARIO:  Life Continues as Usual