Thursday, March 19, 2020

My Take on Today's News from Mexico
  • The Mexican national government has admitted it has tested only  a bit more than 1000 persons for coronavirus, in a country with a population of 128 million.  So far they have uncovered 118 persons infected with coronavirus.  Over 10% of those tested were positive, an extremely high proportion, which probably means simply that Mexico has been testing only persons who have been traveling to countries with a high incidence of coronavirus, like China, South Korea, or Italy, and are therefore at high risk.   
  • There are almost certainly thousands of persons who have had flu-like symptoms in Mexico without being tested, so nobody has any idea where there might be outbreaks of coronavirus in Mexico, let alone being able to estimate the range of persons who might already have the disease.  By contrast, New Mexico, with a population slightly over 2 million, has tested nearly three times as many people as all of Mexico (2797 as of this afternoon), finding 35 persons with the disease so far.
  • According to Diario this morning (click here), quoting the state deputy director of epidemiology Gumaro Barrios, Chihuahua at this time has 40 kits, with a capability of providing 200 tests.  Four days ago Juárez had tested only 6 persons, and the entire state of Chihuahua had discovered only one case of coronavirus.
  • All of this suggests strongly that we have no idea how many persons in the Paso del Norte region might have coronavirus. 
  • The president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, swallowed his pride this morning and "celebrated" Donald Trump's decision not the close the US-Mexico border.   AMLO suggested the two countries would collaborate to fight coronavirus.  Everywhere else in the US, including the US-Canada border, leaders are imposing social isolation measures in the interests of our collective health. 
  • The first act of regional leadership in the Paso del Norte Region was Republican Mayor Dee Margo, who held a press conference this afternoon and said we need to approach this as a regional issue, requiring a regional response, without supplying too many specifics. What, exactly are we going to do as a region to protect the health of all of us?  Who will be consulted?  Just what will citizens be asked to do?  Health providers throughout the region?  The private sector?  The maquilas? County governments?  City governments? Go ahead, Dee, take the lead.  Someone needs to.

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